Western Hemisphere > Paraguay

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International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Paraguay’s Second Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument, Request for an Extension of the Policy Coordination Instrument, Modification of Targets, Inflation Band Consultation, and Request of Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF). The government is committed to continued prudent macroeconomic policies and the implementation of structural reforms, including a series of adaptation and mitigation measures and to preserve and expand its green energy matrix. Barring global and weather-related external shocks, Paraguay’s growth prospects are bright. It remains important for Paraguay to rebuild fiscal buffers, including through implementation of long-standing structural reforms. The re-establishment of the fiscal deficit rule by 2026 is rightfully the government’s key priority. The authorities are committed to implementing an ambitious set of climate-related reforms consistent with maximum access under the RSF. The commitment to implement an ambitious matrix of climate-related reforms, closely coordinated with development partners, will help enhance the country’s image as a ‘green’ investment destination.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper presents Paraguay’s First Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) and Request for Modification of Targets. The PCI supports Paraguay’s macroeconomic policies and structural reforms, aiming at ensuring macroeconomic and fiscal stability, fostering economic growth, and enhancing social protection and inclusion. Paraguay’s economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience during a four-year period of multiple adverse shocks. As it was recovering from the impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, a severe drought hit the economy in early 2022. Economic growth is now rebounding, mainly on behalf of the recovering agricultural sector. The medium-term outlook remains favorable. Paraguay is exposed to various external risks, but their potential impact appears moderate in the near-to-medium term. Economic growth is projected at 4.5 percent for 2023, the external current account is projected to improve notably, and the rate of inflation is expected to converge back to the central bank’s target of four percent in the first half of 2024 at the latest. Continued sound and credible fiscal policies will be critical to safeguard the favorable scenario.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Recent developments: Paraguay continues to recover from last year’s severe drought, with economic growth for 2023 expected at 4.5 percent. The recovery of agricultural exports is also contributing to an improved external current account, easing potential pressures on the exchange rate. In the context of a continued tight monetary policy stance, inflation has been declining over the last twelve months. The government successfully reduced the fiscal deficit to 3 percent of GDP, and fiscal policies remain on the envisaged consolidation path. Paraguay’s financial and banking sector remains stable. On April 30, Paraguay held national elections in which the candidate for the ruling Colorado party, Santiago Peña, was elected President by a significant margin.
Mr. Alun H. Thomas and Ms. Rima A Turk
Against the backdrop of high international food and fertilizer prices, this paper discusses food insecurity in Nigeria, investigates its drivers in a cross-country setting, and assesses the role of policies. Using two proxies for food security, we find that high per capita consumption, high yields and low food inflation support food security. Cross-country estimates of yields and production provided by the FAO/OECD reveal that use of inputs is lower in Nigeria than in other countries, and that policies to raise crop yields positively correlate with better food security conditions. The paper also uses detailed domestic commodity price indices to assess linkages with international prices and the role of import bans. Central bank policies for funding agriculture and import bans have not managed to stimulate agricultural output nor moderated the impact of international food prices. Rather, policies should focus on use of inputs that are severely underused in Nigeria as elsewhere in SSA.