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Asia and Pacific > Palau, Republic of

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Palau: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Palau
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The COVID-19 pandemic and related containment measures have severely impacted the economy. Border closure and the suspension of commercial flights curtailed tourist arrivals. Real GDP contracted by 9.7 percent in FY2020, notwithstanding policy support. The economic contraction is estimated to have deepened in FY2021, and a gradual recovery is expected in FY2022 as tourism activities resume. While Palau’s public debt remains sustainable, the economic fallout of the pandemic and the cost of the fiscal response have led to a sharp deterioration of the fiscal position and a rapid increase in public debt. The high share of concessional loans from multilateral creditors in Palau’s external debt is an important risk mitigating factor. Palau is vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters.
Keywords:
money market rate; tourist expenditure survey; rock island; vaccination program; climate change adaptation; Fiscal consolidation; Climate change; COVID-19; Tourism; Pacific Islands; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Small States
Ali Alichi, Mr. Ippei Shibata, and Kadir Tanyeri
Government debt in many small states has risen beyond sustainable levels and some governments are considering fiscal consolidation. This paper estimates fiscal policy multipliers for small states using two distinct models: an empirical forecast error model with data from 23 small states across the world; and a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model calibrated to a hypothetical small state’s economy. The results suggest that fiscal policy using government current primary spending is ineffective, but using government investment is very potent in small states in affecting the level of their GDP over the medium term. These results are robust to different model specifications and characteristics of small states. Inability to affect GDP using current primary spending could be frustrating for policymakers when an expansionary policy is needed, but encouraging at the current juncture when many governments are considering fiscal consolidation. For the short term, however, multipliers for government current primary spending are larger and affected by imports as share of GDP, level of government debt, and position of the economy in the business cycle, among other factors.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP; Government Spending; Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Multipliers; GDP cost; GDP effect; GDP impact; government investment multiplier; trend GDP; GDP statistics; cost of fiscal consolidation; effect of a consolidation; world GDP; GDP path; impacts of government consumption; fiscal multiplier; Public investment spending; Current spending; Government consumption; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Palau: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Palau
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Article IV Consultation discussions with the Republic of Palau focused on ensuring long-term fiscal sustainability, making potential growth more resilient and sustainable, and preserving financial stability and facilitating credit extension. The consultation discussions also highlight that the main economic policy priorities for Palau are to develop a medium-term fiscal framework and strategy to help manage fiscal risks and the expiration of the Compact grants, to raise public investment, to protect social spending, to make growth more resilient and sustainable through other reforms, and to preserve financial stability and integrity. The current fiscal policy approach is based on the legal requirement to maintain a balanced or surplus cash flow for various parts of the budget. While this fiscal policy strategy has resulted in overall budget surpluses and a decline in net debt, the move to a medium-term fiscal framework and strategy would help Palau to address future challenges.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Palau; GDP; development partner; government; Palauan; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; capital grant; high-value tourism destination; investment plan; Palau's reputation; Tourism; Fiscal stance; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Pacific Islands; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Palau: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Palau
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that Palau’s economy has performed well in recent years. The economy grew strongly in FY2015 (ending September 30, 2015) at 9.4 percent, with tourist arrivals and construction activity expanding by 35 percent. However, the rapid rise in tourism activity strained infrastructure and was tilted toward low budget tourists, which led the authorities to limit the number of charter flights in FY2016. The outlook for Palau is also favorable. Economic growth is expected to slow temporarily to zero in FY2016 as tourist arrivals decline, but to rebound to 5 percent in FY2017 as tourism activity recovers with the entry of new hotels and construction picks up.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; government reform effort; infrastructure investment; Palau; development agenda; government place; private sector development; Tourism; Fiscal stance; Infrastructure; Loans; Fiscal consolidation; Pacific Islands
Cover Policy Papers
Extension of the Period for Consent to Increase Quotas Under the Fourteenth General Review of Quotas, the 2008 Reform of Quota and Voice, and the Eleventh General Review of Quotas
International Monetary Fund
This paper proposes a further six-month extension of the period for consent to increase quotas under the Fourteenth General Review of Quotas. The current deadline is due to expire on December 31, 2015, however, Board of Governors Resolution No. 66-2 provides that the Executive Board may extend the period for consent as it may determine. An extension under Resolution No. 66-2 will also extend the periods of consent for quota increases under the 2008 Reform of Quota and Voice (Resolution No. 63-2) and the Eleventh General Review of Quotas (Resolution No. 53-2). As of December 14, 2015, 21 members have not yet consented to their proposed quota increases under Resolution No. 66-2 (see Appendix I). Once the conditions for effectiveness of the individual quota increases are met, members may then pay for their quota increases to make them effective.
Keywords:
reform of quota; consent to Increase Quotas Under; reform of the executive board; appendix II; members' consent
Cover Policy Papers
Extension of the Period for Consent to Increase Quotas Under the Fourteenth General Review of Quotas, the 2008 Reform of Quota and Voice, and the Eleventh General Review of Quotas
International Monetary Fund
This paper proposes a further six-month extension of the period for consent to increase quotas under the Fourteenth General Review of Quotas. The current deadline is due to expire on June 30, 2015; however, Board of Governor’s Resolution No. 66-2 provides that the Executive Board may extend the period for consent as it may determine. An extension under Resolution No. 66-2 will also extend the periods of consent for quota increases under the 2008 Reform of Quota and Voice (Resolution No. 63-2) and the Eleventh General Review of Quotas (Resolution No. 53-2). As of June 10, 2015, 24 members have not yet consented to their proposed quota increases under Resolution No. 66-2 (see Appendix I). Once the conditions for effectiveness of the individual quota increases are met, members may then pay for their quota increases to make them effective.
Keywords:
reform of quota; reform of the executive board; consent to Increase Quotas Under; members' consent; increases in Quotas Under
Cover Asia and Pacific Small States Monitor, August 2014
Asia and Pacific Small States Monitor, August 2014
Ms. Shari Boyce, Mr. Sergei Dodzin, Ezequiel Cabezon, Mr. Fazurin Jamaludin, Mr. Yiqun Wu, and Ms. Rosanne Heller

Abstract

This issue of the Asia & Pacific Small States Monitor focuses on the challenges facing Asia and Pacific small states associated with natural disasters and climate change. Most tourism-oriented economies experienced a robust increase in arrivals, partly reflecting country-specific factors. Among commodity exporters (Bhutan, Solomon Islands, and Timor-Leste) and other Asia and Pacific small states, growth remains uneven: robust activity in Bhutan was driven mainly by hydropower-related construction activities; Solomon Islands experienced a continuing decline of logging stocks and a short-term disruption of gold production; and Timor-Leste’s ongoing depletion of oil reserves has led to a tighter budget constraint and lower government spending in the non-oil sector.

Keywords:
MISC PERIOD; Misc.; IMF feature event; APD small states; IMF staff estimate; IMF deputy managing director Rachel Kyte; href; UN conference; IMF Palau mission team; IMF statistics dept; Natural disasters; Fiscal multipliers; Tourism; Credit; Pacific Islands; Global; Caribbean; Climate change; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Palau: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that after two years of strong expansion, growth is estimated at about zero percent in the fiscal year 2013 (FY2013, ending in September) in the Republic of Palau owing to declines in construction and tourism. Inflation moderated to 2¾ percent (annual average) in FY2013 thanks to stable international food and fuel prices, and it is expected to stay at about 3 percent in FY2014. Growth is projected to increase to 1¾ percent in FY2014 and to 2¼–2½ percent over the medium term driven by the recovery in tourism and infrastructure developments.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; reform; authority; Palau; private sector development; investor confidence; tax reform bill; Palau authorities; PFTAC TA; near-term outlook; Fiscal consolidation; Tourism; Infrastructure; Asia and Pacific; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Palau: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper describes Palau’s fiscal challenges and policy options to achieve long-term fiscal sustainability. Palau relies heavily on compact grants, and without continued fiscal consolidation over the medium term, the fiscal position will become unsustainable after these grants expire in FY2024. The fiscal sustainability analysis uses an intertemporal budget constraint model to show that reducing the current deficit excluding grants by about 8 percentage points of GDP during FY2014–19 would ensure Palau’s long-term fiscal sustainability. The paper also discusses the role of tourism in Palau and identifies policy priorities to further promote this sector and sustain growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Palau; tax; tourism industry; increase tourism revenue; tourism growth; tourism volatility; Palau's tourism infrastructure; import tax exemption; Tourism; Fiscal sustainability; Fiscal consolidation; Pacific Islands; Global