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Political Science > Agriculture & Food Policy

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Agricultural Output in Mozambique: Using remote sensing to initiate a discussion on development
Kelsee Bratley
and
Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural land coverage in Mozambique by harnessing advanced remote sensing technologies and draws on successful agricultural development examples to propose strategic pathways for Mozambique. The study leverages Sentinel-2 satellite imagery coupled with a machine learning algorithm to accurately map and assess the country's agricultural land, revealing that agriculture accounts for only 12 percent of Mozambique's land area. By examining the agricultural transformation or “green revolution” that some countries have experienced, it is possible to distill regularities and necessary conditions, which can then be compared to the state-of-affairs in Mozambique. This study not only offers a model of how emerging technologies like remote sensing can inform agricultural state of affairs, it also provides important insights into which concrete bottlenecks are likely to be holding back Mozambique’s agricultural development.
Keywords:
Mozambique; agricultural development; remote sensing; greenrevolution; poverty alleviation; remote sensing technology; satellite imagery; accuracy assessment; agricultural land usage; area estimation; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Agricultural production; Food security; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict
Sidra Rehman
and
Laura Jaramillo
Do weather shocks worsen conflict around the world? To answer this question, this paper uses an innovative dataset created by using georeferencing to match weather and conflict data at the subregional level on a monthly frequency across 168 countries over 2013 to 2022.The empirical results show that higher temperature exacerbate conflict where it already exists. Estimations indicate that, in a high emissions scenario and all else equal, by 2060 conflict deaths as a share of the population for a median country facing conflict could increase by 12.3 percent due to rising temperatures. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate resilience into peace and security efforts and designing climate adaptation policies that support conflict prevention and resolution.
Keywords:
conflict; temperature; precipitation; climate change; weather shock; conflict intensity; IMF working paper No. 24/112; impact of weather; precipitation shock; Natural disasters; Food security; East Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Coping with Climate Shocks: Food Security in a Spatial Framework
Diogo Baptista
,
John A Spray
, and
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
We develop a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model with heterogeneous house-holds and multiple locations to study households’ vulnerability to food insecurity from cli-mate shocks. In the model, households endogenously respond to negative climate shocks by drawing-down assets, importing food and temporarily migrating to earn additional income to ensure sufficient calories. Because these coping strategies are most effective when trade and migration costs are low, remote households are more vulnerable to climate shocks. Food insecure households are also more vulnerable, as their proximity to a subsistence requirement causes them to hold a smaller capital buffer and more aggressively dissave in response to shocks, at the expense of future consumption. We calibrate the model to 51 districts in Nepal and estimate the impact of historical climate shocks on food consumption and welfare. We estimate that, on an annual basis, floods, landslides, droughts and storms combined generated GDP losses of 2.3 percent, welfare losses of 3.3 percent for the average household and increased the rate of undernourishment by 2.8 percent. Undernourished households experience roughly 50 percent larger welfare losses and those in remote locations suffer welfare losses that are roughly two times larger than in less remote locations (5.9 vs 2.9 percent). In counterfactual simulations, we show the role of better access to migration and trade in building resilience to climate shocks.
Keywords:
Agriculture; Food Security; Trade, Migration; Climate change; Climate shocks; welfare loss; food consumption; migration cost; loss from climate; losses from climate change; Consumption; Migration; Income; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Climate Vulnerabilities and Food Insecurity in Mali
Luc Tucker
Mali is extremely vulnerable to climate change and the country is already facing acute climate-related challenges from higher temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events. The impact of climate change has also contributed to a rise in food insecurity, with almost a quarter of the population expected to be either facing food insecurity or at risk of doing so by mid-2023. That is already having a hugely damaging effect on Mali’s economy and action is needed without delay to avoid a further increase in food insecurity.
Keywords:
Climate; food insecurity; agriculture; climate vulnerability; food consumption; World Bank climate change knowledge portal; price levels in Mali; climate change adaptation; Climate change; Food security; Natural disasters; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Food Insecurity and Climate Shocks in Madagascar: Republic of Madagascar
Dominique Fayad
Food insecurity dramatically increased in Madagascar over the last 10 years, hampering human development. Using most recent data and surveys conducted by UN Agencies and local authorities, this paper analyzes the root causes of food insecurity in Madagascar related to demographic vulnerabilities, multidimensional poverty, lack of education, as well as structural weaknesses in the food value chain and the lack of basic infrastructure, such as irrigation and transportation, that hamper agricultural activity development. Moreover, Madagascar is exposed to a large variety of climate shocks that climate change will likely exacerbate. This paper formulates country specific macroeconomic and operational policy recommendations in collaboration with the World Food Program to reduce food insecurity, which include i) measures to improve the emergency response and preparedness, ii) policies to address structural food insecurity, by improving the food chain and addressing challenges posed by climate shocks, and iii) measures to improve Green PFM and climate related public investment management to invest in long-term resilience and mobilize external financing.
Keywords:
Food Insecurity; Climate Change; Public Finance; Madagascar; food value chain; policy recommendation; value chain; climate change risk; food inflation; food consumption; Natural disasters; Food security; Global; Caribbean; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nepal: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper utilizes a new macro-model capturing food insecurity, migration and trade in Nepal. It shows that low yields and remoteness explain a majority of the difference in prevalence of food insecurity across districts in Nepal; both climate shocks and persistent climate-change increase food insecurity and disproportionately harm the most vulnerable; and lower wages in migrant destinations would reduce remittances, increase food insecurity and lower welfare. The paper then presents and quantifies a number of potential policies to address these issues. The paper quantifies the impact of a number of policy options (cash transfers, better infrastructure, and improved agricultural productivity) to address food insecurity and climate change. In addition to climate shocks, persistent climate change will lower welfare, increase food insecurity, and migration. Given the model results show that agricultural productivity is a key determinant of food security, Nepal can learn from other countries policies including in agricultural extension, improved community water management techniques, and climate resilient agriculture in line with the National Adaptation Plan.
Keywords:
food insecurity in Nepal; NAC's risk rating; migration cost; remittances in Nepal; NAC's borrowing; Climate change; Food security; Loans; Migration; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
République islamique de Mauritanie : document de stratégie de réduction de la pauvreté
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; civil society; human resources; private sector; job creation; economic value
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper examines the Islamic Republic of Mauritania’s adoption of its third Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) action plan, covering the medium term (2011–2015). Poverty reduction as the ultimate objective of all of the country’s economic social and institutional development policies has informed the context in which the third action plan is being implemented. The safe drinking water supply rate reached 52 percent nationally. In urban areas, the rate of access to private water main connections was 35 percent although it varied significantly from town to town. During the first year of implementation of the PRSP III, significant progress was made with actions targeting good governance and capacity-building in all areas of governance.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; civil society; human resources; private sector; job creation; economic value; public works; justice system; Food security; Poverty reduction strategy; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guinée: Rapport de mise en oeuvre de la stratégie de réduction de la pauvreté Rapport d’avancement annuel
International Monetary Fund
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; economic situation; standard of living; human resources; poverty rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Djibouti: Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund
This Joint Staff Advisory Note focuses on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for Djibouti. Djibouti’s National Initiative for Social Development (“Initiative Nationale pour le Développement Social”—INDS) provides a comprehensive vision for economic growth and poverty reduction. Notwithstanding some important achievements of the PRSP-I, overall progress in achieving its objectives has been limited. IMF staff commends the government for a well-designed and ambitious poverty reduction strategy. IMF staff considers that the INDS benefits from better prioritization and draws lessons from the shortcomings in the implementation of the PRSP-I.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ind; government; inds document; inds hinge; financing; inds process; inds note; inds benefit; Poverty reduction strategy; Poverty reduction; Food security