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Political Science > Agriculture & Food Policy

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Cover IMF Working Papers
How do Economic Growth and Food Inflation Affect Food Insecurity?
Christian Bogmans
,
Andrea Pescatori
, and
Ervin Prifti
During the global recession of 2020 food insecurity increased substantially in many countries around the world. Fortunately, the surge in food insecurity quickly came to a halt as the world economy returned to its positive growth path, despite double-digit domestic food inflation in most countries. To shed light on the relative importance of income growth and food inflation in driving food insecurity, we employ a heterogeneous-agent model with income inequality, complemented by novel cross-country data for the period 2001-2021. We use external instruments (changes in commodity terms-of-trade, external economic growth, and harvest shocks) to isolate exogenous variation in domestic income growth and ood inflation. Our findings suggest that income growth is the dominant driver of annual variations in food insecurity, while food price inflation plays a somewhat smaller role, aligning with our model predictions.
Keywords:
Food insecurity; inclusive growth; food inflation; inequality; diet.; food inflation affect food insecurity; food price inflation; affect food insecurity; income growth; Food security; Income; Food prices; Inflation; Price elasticity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burkina Faso: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights trends, impacts, and policy implications in Burkina Faso. Regional insecurity has also created increased cross-border displacement, both into and out of Burkina Faso. Burkina Faso has devised several policy responses, including in cooperation with international partners. Despite these measures, the persistent crisis of forced displacement means that the need for humanitarian assistance remains. A successful strategy for addressing the displacement crisis should be broad-based in terms of partners and approaches. Given the country's economic and financial challenges, an in-depth understanding is needed of the economic impact of forced displacement and possible solutions. In other countries, studies show positive economic outcomes to host regions of forced displacement. The inclusion of forced displaced persons in the Unified Social Register and national social nets programs would facilitate the implementation of assistance and, along with other national repositories help improve urban management and budget planning.
Keywords:
growth experience; C. socio-economic Impact; C. policy response; impact of climate change; agriculture productivity; Climate change; Productivity; Food security; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict
Sidra Rehman
and
Laura Jaramillo
Do weather shocks worsen conflict around the world? To answer this question, this paper uses an innovative dataset created by using georeferencing to match weather and conflict data at the subregional level on a monthly frequency across 168 countries over 2013 to 2022.The empirical results show that higher temperature exacerbate conflict where it already exists. Estimations indicate that, in a high emissions scenario and all else equal, by 2060 conflict deaths as a share of the population for a median country facing conflict could increase by 12.3 percent due to rising temperatures. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate resilience into peace and security efforts and designing climate adaptation policies that support conflict prevention and resolution.
Keywords:
conflict; temperature; precipitation; climate change; weather shock; conflict intensity; IMF working paper No. 24/112; impact of weather; precipitation shock; Natural disasters; Food security; East Africa; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fraying Threads: Exclusion and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Hany Abdel-Latif
and
Mahmoud El-Gamal
This study investigates the factors leading to exclusion and their detrimental impacts in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It employs two-levels of analysis: a macro-level estimation of the influence of exclusion and marginalization on violent conflict, and a micro-level investigation identifying the triggers of exclusion sentiments. We construct statistical summaries from multiple measures of exclusion, producing an overall exclusion index as well as social, economic, and political exclusion sub-indices. Our results show the importance of mitigating exclusion and marginalization within SSA nations, and pinpoint the most effective policy levers that governments may use to minimize destabilizing feelings of exclusion.
Keywords:
Sub-Saharan Africa; Conflict; Social exclusion; Political exclusion; Economic exclusion; exclusion sentiment; IMF working paper No. 24/4; policy lever; conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa; growth effort; Financial soundness indicators; Food security; Climate change
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper takes stock of developments in education, health, and social assistance and offers policy options in the Republic of Madagascar. The quality of education in Madagascar is falling with low school completion rates, a high share of untrained teachers, and declining test scores. Finding fiscal space to allocate more public resources to the education, health, and social protection sectors should be a key government priority. The resources currently budgeted for these sectors remain much lower than in other Sub-Saharan African countries and insufficient to improve development outcomes. Madagascar made some progress in improving access to primary education and basic health services, but the quality of the education system has deteriorated, significant human resource gaps remain in the health sector, and the poverty rate has increased. The paper recommends that in the area of social protection, identify clear and predictable funding sources with a view to gradually scale up existing social programs, while developing a national social registry to harmonize the social response among different interventions and actors and set a strong basis to gradually increase social assistance coverage of the vulnerable population.
Keywords:
policy recommendation; food value chain vulnerability; social spending; food inflation; education outcome; Climate change; Natural disasters; Food security; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Madagascar: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper takes stock of developments in education, health, and social assistance and offers policy options in the Republic of Madagascar. The quality of education in Madagascar is falling with low school completion rates, a high share of untrained teachers, and declining test scores. Finding fiscal space to allocate more public resources to the education, health, and social protection sectors should be a key government priority. The resources currently budgeted for these sectors remain much lower than in other Sub-Saharan African countries and insufficient to improve development outcomes. Madagascar made some progress in improving access to primary education and basic health services, but the quality of the education system has deteriorated, significant human resource gaps remain in the health sector, and the poverty rate has increased. The paper recommends that in the area of social protection, identify clear and predictable funding sources with a view to gradually scale up existing social programs, while developing a national social registry to harmonize the social response among different interventions and actors and set a strong basis to gradually increase social assistance coverage of the vulnerable population.
Keywords:
policy recommendation; food value chain vulnerability; social spending; food inflation; education outcome; Climate change; Natural disasters; Food security; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover Policy Papers
The Managing Director’s Global Policy Agenda, Spring Meetings 2022: The Global Economy Under Stress: Repercussions, Response, and Resilience
International Monetary Fund
The global policy agenda that follows recalibrates priorities to meet the new reality we are facing. The IMF also continues to adjust to respond to the rapidly evolving needs of our membership. Our flexibility has been evident over the past two years of the COVID crisis: unprecedented emergency financing; a historic Special Drawing Rights (SDR) allocation; an innovative plan to end the pandemic. Now, as we face another crisis on top of a crisis, we will continue to step up and support our member countries in every way we can—with financial resources, policy advice, and capacity development—working in collaboration with our international partners.
Keywords:
global economy under stress; price pressure; scarring effect; global economy well; country delivery; COVID-19; Food security; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Income Versus Prices: How Does The Business Cycle Affect Food (In)-Security?
Mr. Christian Bogmans
,
Mr. Andrea Pescatori
, and
Ervin Prifti
We study how two aspects of food insecurity - caloric insufficiency and diet composition - are affected by aggregate economic fluctuations. The use of cross-country panel data allows us to adopt a global prospective on the identification of the macroeconomic determinants of food insecurity. Income shocks are the most relevant driver of food insecurity, displaying high elasticities at the early stages of economic development. The role of food price shocks is more limited. Social protection has a direct effect and mitigates the impact of income shocks. Effects are highly heterogeneous across a range of structural characteristics of the economy, highlighting the role of distributional aspects and of food import dependency.
Keywords:
Food insecurity; growth; food prices; social protection; diet and health; food inflation; income elasticity; FD estimate; elasticity of undernourishment; coefficient estimate; rising prices; least squares; coefficient estimates of the interaction terms; inflation elasticity; ln GDP pc; income share; descriptive statistics; Food security; Income; Inflation; Purchasing power; Global; South Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
République islamique de Mauritanie : document de stratégie de réduction de la pauvreté
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Depuis plusieurs années, le FMI publie un nombre croissant de rapports et autres documents couvrant l'évolution et les tendances économiques et financières dans les pays membres. Chaque rapport, rédigé par une équipe des services du FMI à la suite d'entretiens avec des représentants des autorités, est publié avec l'accord du pays concerné.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; civil society; human resources; private sector; job creation; economic value
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper examines the Islamic Republic of Mauritania’s adoption of its third Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) action plan, covering the medium term (2011–2015). Poverty reduction as the ultimate objective of all of the country’s economic social and institutional development policies has informed the context in which the third action plan is being implemented. The safe drinking water supply rate reached 52 percent nationally. In urban areas, the rate of access to private water main connections was 35 percent although it varied significantly from town to town. During the first year of implementation of the PRSP III, significant progress was made with actions targeting good governance and capacity-building in all areas of governance.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; civil society; human resources; private sector; job creation; economic value; public works; justice system; Food security; Poverty reduction strategy; Global