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Political Science > Agriculture & Food Policy

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Agricultural Output in Mozambique: Using remote sensing to initiate a discussion on development
Kelsee Bratley
and
Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural land coverage in Mozambique by harnessing advanced remote sensing technologies and draws on successful agricultural development examples to propose strategic pathways for Mozambique. The study leverages Sentinel-2 satellite imagery coupled with a machine learning algorithm to accurately map and assess the country's agricultural land, revealing that agriculture accounts for only 12 percent of Mozambique's land area. By examining the agricultural transformation or “green revolution” that some countries have experienced, it is possible to distill regularities and necessary conditions, which can then be compared to the state-of-affairs in Mozambique. This study not only offers a model of how emerging technologies like remote sensing can inform agricultural state of affairs, it also provides important insights into which concrete bottlenecks are likely to be holding back Mozambique’s agricultural development.
Keywords:
Mozambique; agricultural development; remote sensing; greenrevolution; poverty alleviation; remote sensing technology; satellite imagery; accuracy assessment; agricultural land usage; area estimation; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Agricultural production; Food security; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sierra Leone: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights mobilizing mining revenue in Sierra Leone. Sierra Leone is a resource-rich economy, and its mining sector can generate revenue to finance its development goals and ensure debt sustainability. It previously incorporated its mining fiscal regime for industrial miners into mineral license agreements that are difficult to modify. Negotiated tax concessions, combined with acute capacity challenges in revenue administration, are hindering revenue performances and have led to an elevated reliance on fees and trade taxes which increase investor costs, hindering competitiveness. Sierra Leone legislated a new fiscal regime—the Extractive Industries Revenue Act (EIRA)—in 2018 for new investments. Applying the EIRA could significantly boost revenue performance, whilst also ensuring taxes are responsive to changes in economic conditions. Stronger revenue performance will require a stronger revenue administration. Efforts to improve mineral royalty compliance are starting to pay dividends but NRA will need to bolster its resources and widen its skill sets.
Keywords:
trade cost; programs in Sierra Leone; spending program; policy option; Policy recommendation; inflation surge; Climate change; Women; Inflation; Food security; Trade facilitation; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Investing in Climate Adaptation under Trade and Financing Constraints: Balanced Strategies for Food Security
Chen Chen
,
Koralai Kirabaeva
, and
Danchen Zhao
Financially constrained governments, particularly in emerging and developing economies, tend to face a fiscal trade-off between adapting to climate change impacts and pursuing broader development goals. This trade-off is especially relevant in the agriculture sector, where investing in adaptation is critical to ensure food security amidst climate change. International trade can help alleviate this challenge and reduce adaptation investment needs by offsetting agricultural production shortages. However, in the presence of trade fragmentation, the adaptive role of trade diminishes, exacerbating food insecurity and increasing investment needs for adaptation. In this paper, we present a model to guide policymakers in deciding on the cost-efficient balance between investing in adaptation in the agricultural sector versus in broader development under financing and trade constraints. We apply the model to Ghana, Egypt, and Brazil, to examine the adaptation-development trade-off and highlight factors that would potentially lower adaptation investment needs. These factors include trade openness, higher agricultural productivity and efficiency of adaptation spending, and reduced labor market distortions. The key takeaways from the model applications suggest that (i) promoting trade openness and accessing concessional finance for adaptation help tackle climate challenges and ensure food security in lower-income countries; and (ii) domestic structural reforms are necessary to facilitate adaptation investments and reduce investment needs, by improving labor market flexibility, adaptation efficiency, and agriculture productivity.
Keywords:
agriculture; investment; adaptation; trade; climate change; adaptation investment; trade openness; trade cost; development investment; trade fragmentation; Agricultural sector; Food security; Agricultural production; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burkina Faso: 2024 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burkina Faso
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper focuses on Burkina Faso’s 2024 Article IV Consultation and First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review. Burkina Faso’s performance under the program has been positive. All quantitative performance criteria, all indicative targets but one, and most structural benchmarks for the first review were met; some structural benchmarks were implemented with delay. Burkina Faso faces multiple development challenges, including heightened security conditions, climate change, and food insecurity. The authorities are progressing in their fiscal consolidation efforts, structural reforms and fiscal governance measures, and the creation of fiscal space for priority spending. Growth accelerated in 2023 to 3.6 percent of gross domestic product, supported by a rebound in construction and expansion of the tertiary sector. Inflation significantly decreased, and the fiscal and debt positions improved. Growth is projected at 5.5 percent in 2024 but remains below potential in the medium term, and a lasting recovery is contingent on bringing security under control.
Keywords:
consultation cycle; HIPC resource; investment expenditure budgeting; SDR equivalent; appreciation to IMF management; Debt sustainability; Food security; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burkina Faso: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper highlights trends, impacts, and policy implications in Burkina Faso. Regional insecurity has also created increased cross-border displacement, both into and out of Burkina Faso. Burkina Faso has devised several policy responses, including in cooperation with international partners. Despite these measures, the persistent crisis of forced displacement means that the need for humanitarian assistance remains. A successful strategy for addressing the displacement crisis should be broad-based in terms of partners and approaches. Given the country's economic and financial challenges, an in-depth understanding is needed of the economic impact of forced displacement and possible solutions. In other countries, studies show positive economic outcomes to host regions of forced displacement. The inclusion of forced displaced persons in the Unified Social Register and national social nets programs would facilitate the implementation of assistance and, along with other national repositories help improve urban management and budget planning.
Keywords:
growth experience; C. socio-economic Impact; C. policy response; impact of climate change; agriculture productivity; Climate change; Productivity; Food security; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Adding Fuel to the Fire: How Weather Shocks Intensify Conflict
Sidra Rehman
and
Laura Jaramillo
Do weather shocks worsen conflict around the world? To answer this question, this paper uses an innovative dataset created by using georeferencing to match weather and conflict data at the subregional level on a monthly frequency across 168 countries over 2013 to 2022.The empirical results show that higher temperature exacerbate conflict where it already exists. Estimations indicate that, in a high emissions scenario and all else equal, by 2060 conflict deaths as a share of the population for a median country facing conflict could increase by 12.3 percent due to rising temperatures. These findings underscore the importance of integrating climate resilience into peace and security efforts and designing climate adaptation policies that support conflict prevention and resolution.
Keywords:
conflict; temperature; precipitation; climate change; weather shock; conflict intensity; IMF working paper No. 24/112; impact of weather; precipitation shock; Natural disasters; Food security; East Africa; Middle East
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Climate Change in the WAEMU: Trends, Macro-criticality and Options Going Forward
Can Sever
This paper focuses on the trends in climate change in the WAEMU, assesses the criticality of climate change for the region, and reviews the related policy and financing options going forward. Climate change has been increasingly affecting the lives and livelihoods in the WAEMU. Temperatures have risen significantly, and climate-related disasters have hit the region more frequently in recent decades. Climate change can exacerbate the current challenges and hinder long-term economic prospects by threatening economic growth, food security, fiscal and external sustainability, and social outcomes in the region. Macroeconomic policies, structural reforms and cooperation among different parties remain critical alongside regional efforts, in particular to have access to necessary financing and bolster adaptation efforts.
Keywords:
WAEMU; climate change; climate-related disasters; climate adaptation; climate finance; financing option; climate change in the WAEMU; A. climate trend; C. climate adaption; WAEMU population; Agricultural commodities; Food security; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burkina Faso: demande d’un nouvel accord économique et financier au titre du mécanisme élargi de crédit et de la facilité élargie de crédit-communiqué de presse; rapport des services du FMI; déclaration de l’administrateur FMI pour le Burkina Faso
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Le Burkina Faso est confronté à d’importants besoins en matière de balance des paiements et de sécurité aggravés par une insécurité alimentaire aiguë et une instabilité politique. Les autorités ont obtenu en mars 2023 un financement d’urgence de la part du FMI au titre du guichet « chocs alimentaires » de la facilité de crédit rapide pour répondre à la crise provoquée par l’insécurité alimentaire, qui demeure très vive dans certaines régions. L’aide internationale au développement a diminué après les deux coups d’État militaires survenus en 2022. Le Burkina Faso est parvenu à un accord avec la Communauté économique des États d’Afrique de l’Ouest (CEDEAO) sur un retour à l’ordre constitutionnel et des élections doivent se dérouler d’ici juillet 2024.
Keywords:
crise de l’insécurité alimentaire; la mise en œuvre de l’intervention d’urgence alimentaire; la mise en œuvre par les autorités; les dépenses alimentaires d’urgence; déficit de financement; Viabilité de la dette; Planification et préparation du budget; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fraying Threads: Exclusion and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Hany Abdel-Latif
and
Mahmoud El-Gamal
This study investigates the factors leading to exclusion and their detrimental impacts in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It employs two-levels of analysis: a macro-level estimation of the influence of exclusion and marginalization on violent conflict, and a micro-level investigation identifying the triggers of exclusion sentiments. We construct statistical summaries from multiple measures of exclusion, producing an overall exclusion index as well as social, economic, and political exclusion sub-indices. Our results show the importance of mitigating exclusion and marginalization within SSA nations, and pinpoint the most effective policy levers that governments may use to minimize destabilizing feelings of exclusion.
Keywords:
Sub-Saharan Africa; Conflict; Social exclusion; Political exclusion; Economic exclusion; exclusion sentiment; IMF working paper No. 24/4; policy lever; conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa; growth effort; Financial soundness indicators; Food security; Climate change
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burkina Faso: Request for a Four-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burkina Faso
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Burkina Faso’s Request for a Four-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Burkina Faso faces protracted balance of payments problems, reflecting large development needs and the impact of shocks such as the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, adverse weather conditions, deteriorating domestic security, the food insecurity crisis, and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine. These shocks have disrupted economic activity, affected livelihoods, and exacerbated macroeconomic imbalances. The ECF will help create fiscal space for priority spending, strengthen resilience to shocks while reducing poverty, and bolster fiscal discipline, transparency and governance. It will also help close financing gaps reflecting tight financial conditions, large fiscal deficits, debt vulnerabilities, food insecurity, and fragile security conditions. For the country’s long-term development process, it remains essential to sustain structural reforms to foster economic growth and diversification as well as to reduce poverty. In this context, further efforts to improve the business environment, reinforce governance and anticorruption efforts, and address the security crisis are critical.
Keywords:
food insecurity crisis; implementation of the food emergency response; authorities' implementation; emergency food expenditure; financing gap; Debt sustainability; Budget planning and preparation; Global