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Political Science > Agriculture & Food Policy

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Agricultural Output in Mozambique: Using remote sensing to initiate a discussion on development
Kelsee Bratley
and
Alexis Meyer-Cirkel
This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural land coverage in Mozambique by harnessing advanced remote sensing technologies and draws on successful agricultural development examples to propose strategic pathways for Mozambique. The study leverages Sentinel-2 satellite imagery coupled with a machine learning algorithm to accurately map and assess the country's agricultural land, revealing that agriculture accounts for only 12 percent of Mozambique's land area. By examining the agricultural transformation or “green revolution” that some countries have experienced, it is possible to distill regularities and necessary conditions, which can then be compared to the state-of-affairs in Mozambique. This study not only offers a model of how emerging technologies like remote sensing can inform agricultural state of affairs, it also provides important insights into which concrete bottlenecks are likely to be holding back Mozambique’s agricultural development.
Keywords:
Mozambique; agricultural development; remote sensing; greenrevolution; poverty alleviation; remote sensing technology; satellite imagery; accuracy assessment; agricultural land usage; area estimation; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Agricultural production; Food security; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Investing in Climate Adaptation under Trade and Financing Constraints: Balanced Strategies for Food Security
Chen Chen
,
Koralai Kirabaeva
, and
Danchen Zhao
Financially constrained governments, particularly in emerging and developing economies, tend to face a fiscal trade-off between adapting to climate change impacts and pursuing broader development goals. This trade-off is especially relevant in the agriculture sector, where investing in adaptation is critical to ensure food security amidst climate change. International trade can help alleviate this challenge and reduce adaptation investment needs by offsetting agricultural production shortages. However, in the presence of trade fragmentation, the adaptive role of trade diminishes, exacerbating food insecurity and increasing investment needs for adaptation. In this paper, we present a model to guide policymakers in deciding on the cost-efficient balance between investing in adaptation in the agricultural sector versus in broader development under financing and trade constraints. We apply the model to Ghana, Egypt, and Brazil, to examine the adaptation-development trade-off and highlight factors that would potentially lower adaptation investment needs. These factors include trade openness, higher agricultural productivity and efficiency of adaptation spending, and reduced labor market distortions. The key takeaways from the model applications suggest that (i) promoting trade openness and accessing concessional finance for adaptation help tackle climate challenges and ensure food security in lower-income countries; and (ii) domestic structural reforms are necessary to facilitate adaptation investments and reduce investment needs, by improving labor market flexibility, adaptation efficiency, and agriculture productivity.
Keywords:
agriculture; investment; adaptation; trade; climate change; adaptation investment; trade openness; trade cost; development investment; trade fragmentation; Agricultural sector; Food security; Agricultural production; Global
Cover IMF Notes
Global Food Crisis Update: Recent Developments, Outlook, and IMF Engagement
Mr. Bjoern Rother
,
Mr. Sebastian Sosa
,
Majdi Debbich
,
Chiara Castrovillari
, and
Ervin Prifti
The global food crisis remains a major challenge. Food insecurity fueled by widely experienced increases in the cost of living has become a growing concern especially in low-income countries, even if price pressures on global food markets have softened somewhat since the onset of Russia’s war in Ukraine in February 2022. Targeted assistance to the most vulnerable households combined with policy measures to support trade and agriculture systems, including to better cope with climate shocks, can help countries withstand the fallout of the ongoing food crisis while building longer-term resilience. The IMF, working in close cooperation with other international organizations, has continued to contribute to international efforts to alleviate food insecurity by providing policy advice, capacity development, and financial support through Upper Credit Tranche Arrangements and the new Food Shock Window. New commitments to countries particularly affected by the global food crisis total $13.2 billion since February 2022, of which $3.7 billion has been disbursed as of March 2023.
Keywords:
Food insecurity; Russia’s war in Ukraine; global inflation; terms of trade shock; international cooperation; open trade; vulnerable households; agricultural production; IMF lending; IMF policy advice; capacity development
Cover Departmental Papers
Climate Change and Chronic Food Insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Diogo Miguel Salgado Baptista
,
Mrs. Mai Farid
,
Dominique Fayad
,
Laurent Kemoe
,
Loic S Lanci
,
Ms. Pritha Mitra
,
Tara S Muehlschlegel
,
Cedric Okou
,
John A Spray
,
Kevin Tuitoek
, and
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
Climate change is intensifying food insecurity across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with lasting adverse macroeconomic effects, especially on economic growth and poverty. Successive shocks from the war in Ukraine and COVID-19 pandemic have increased food prices and depressed incomes, raising the number of people suffering from high malnutrition and unable to meet basic food consumption needs by at least 30 percent to 123 million in 2022 or 12 percent of SSA’s population. Addressing the lack of resilience to climate change—that critically underlies food insecurity in SSA—will require careful policy prioritization against a backdrop of financing and capacity constraints. This paper presents some key considerations and examples of tradeoffs and complementarities across policies to address food insecurity. Key findings include (1) Fiscal policies focused on social assistance and efficient public infrastructure investment can improve poorer households’ access to affordable food, facilitate expansion of climate-resilient and green agricultural production, and support quicker recovery from adverse climate events; (2) Improving access to finance is key to stepping up private investment in agricultural resilience and productivity as well as improving the earning capacity and food purchasing power of poorer rural and urban households; and (3) Greater regional trade integration, complemented with resilient transport infrastructure, enables sales of one country’s bumper harvests to its neighbors’ facing shortages. The international community can help with financial assistance—especially for the above-mentioned social assistance and key infrastructure areas—capacity development, and facilitating transfers of technology and know-how.
Keywords:
Food Insecurity; Spatial Macroeconomics; Economic Development; Agricultural Policy; policy consideration; infrastructure investment; policy mix; SSA development outcome; cash transfer; IMF Library; price effect; increase dummy; fuel price hike; Climate change; Food prices; Food security; Agricultural sector; Agricultural commodities; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Africa; West Africa; East Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burkina Faso: Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria—Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The number of Malian refugees in Burkina Faso has increased, but the government’s contribution remains in line with earlier estimates. Growth for 2012 has been revised upward to 8 percent. The overall fiscal deficit is significantly lower than anticipated. The current account is expected to improve next year. There is significant improvement in revenue collection. The authorities are stepping up efforts to improve resilience to shocks. Efforts are under way to improve debt management capacity. The mining taxation regime needs to rebalance the interests of investors.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ECF arrangement; program; priority investment spending; macroeconomic performance; revenue; IMF's executive board; investment spending; Food security; Gold; Agricultural commodities; Mining sector; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global