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Political Science > Agriculture & Food Policy

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Fraying Threads: Exclusion and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa
Hany Abdel-Latif
and
Mahmoud El-Gamal
This study investigates the factors leading to exclusion and their detrimental impacts in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It employs two-levels of analysis: a macro-level estimation of the influence of exclusion and marginalization on violent conflict, and a micro-level investigation identifying the triggers of exclusion sentiments. We construct statistical summaries from multiple measures of exclusion, producing an overall exclusion index as well as social, economic, and political exclusion sub-indices. Our results show the importance of mitigating exclusion and marginalization within SSA nations, and pinpoint the most effective policy levers that governments may use to minimize destabilizing feelings of exclusion.
Keywords:
Sub-Saharan Africa; Conflict; Social exclusion; Political exclusion; Economic exclusion; exclusion sentiment; IMF working paper No. 24/4; policy lever; conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa; growth effort; Financial soundness indicators; Food security; Climate change
Cover Policy Papers
Development Committee: The Managing Director's Written Statement October 2023
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The global economy has shown resilience, but the recovery is slow and uneven. Risks have moderated in recent months but remain tilted to the downside. Headline inflation is about half of its 2022 peak but the decline in core inflation is more gradual. Growth momentum across most low-income and emerging market countries is weakening and achieving the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is becoming increasingly challenging. While restoring price stability, normalizing fiscal policy, and protecting the vulnerable remain near-term policy priorities, policymakers should actively pursue policies that can support sustained growth—including macro-structural reforms and green transition. Multilateral cooperation is critical to address the challenges that hold back global recovery and shadow future prosperity, including risks associated with geoeconomic fragmentation.
Keywords:
growth; multilateral cooperation; emerging market country; policy priority; growth momentum; decline in core inflation; inflation expectation; Inflation; Price stabilization; Climate change; Monetary tightening; Food security; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Burkina Faso: Request for a Four-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burkina Faso
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Burkina Faso’s Request for a Four-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Burkina Faso faces protracted balance of payments problems, reflecting large development needs and the impact of shocks such as the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, adverse weather conditions, deteriorating domestic security, the food insecurity crisis, and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine. These shocks have disrupted economic activity, affected livelihoods, and exacerbated macroeconomic imbalances. The ECF will help create fiscal space for priority spending, strengthen resilience to shocks while reducing poverty, and bolster fiscal discipline, transparency and governance. It will also help close financing gaps reflecting tight financial conditions, large fiscal deficits, debt vulnerabilities, food insecurity, and fragile security conditions. For the country’s long-term development process, it remains essential to sustain structural reforms to foster economic growth and diversification as well as to reduce poverty. In this context, further efforts to improve the business environment, reinforce governance and anticorruption efforts, and address the security crisis are critical.
Keywords:
food insecurity crisis; implementation of the food emergency response; authorities' implementation; emergency food expenditure; financing gap; Debt sustainability; Budget planning and preparation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Coping with Climate Shocks: Food Security in a Spatial Framework
Diogo Baptista
,
John A Spray
, and
Ms. Filiz D Unsal
We develop a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model with heterogeneous house-holds and multiple locations to study households’ vulnerability to food insecurity from cli-mate shocks. In the model, households endogenously respond to negative climate shocks by drawing-down assets, importing food and temporarily migrating to earn additional income to ensure sufficient calories. Because these coping strategies are most effective when trade and migration costs are low, remote households are more vulnerable to climate shocks. Food insecure households are also more vulnerable, as their proximity to a subsistence requirement causes them to hold a smaller capital buffer and more aggressively dissave in response to shocks, at the expense of future consumption. We calibrate the model to 51 districts in Nepal and estimate the impact of historical climate shocks on food consumption and welfare. We estimate that, on an annual basis, floods, landslides, droughts and storms combined generated GDP losses of 2.3 percent, welfare losses of 3.3 percent for the average household and increased the rate of undernourishment by 2.8 percent. Undernourished households experience roughly 50 percent larger welfare losses and those in remote locations suffer welfare losses that are roughly two times larger than in less remote locations (5.9 vs 2.9 percent). In counterfactual simulations, we show the role of better access to migration and trade in building resilience to climate shocks.
Keywords:
Agriculture; Food Security; Trade, Migration; Climate change; Climate shocks; welfare loss; food consumption; migration cost; loss from climate; losses from climate change; Consumption; Migration; Income; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Climate Vulnerabilities and Food Insecurity in Mali
Luc Tucker
Mali is extremely vulnerable to climate change and the country is already facing acute climate-related challenges from higher temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events. The impact of climate change has also contributed to a rise in food insecurity, with almost a quarter of the population expected to be either facing food insecurity or at risk of doing so by mid-2023. That is already having a hugely damaging effect on Mali’s economy and action is needed without delay to avoid a further increase in food insecurity.
Keywords:
Climate; food insecurity; agriculture; climate vulnerability; food consumption; World Bank climate change knowledge portal; price levels in Mali; climate change adaptation; Climate change; Food security; Natural disasters; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Review of Experience with The Food Shock Window Under The Rapid Financing Instrument and The Rapid Credit Facility
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
,
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
, and
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
The Food Shock Window (FSW) under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) and the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) was approved in September 2022 for 12 months, as a complement to the tools used by the Fund to support the broader international effort to address the global food shock. The Fund has been working closely with partners to provide a coordinated international response to the global food shock, and has contributed through policy advice, technical assistance and lending. Where needed and possible, financial support to countries affected by the global food shock has been delivered by the IMF through multi-year Fund-supported programs The FSW complemented this support in situations where these programs were not feasible or not necessary. As the global food shock and associated balance of payment pressures are expected to continue throughout 2023, the IMF extended the FSW until end-March 2024 to allow the FSW to continue serving as a contingency tool. This extension will also provide sufficient time to observe if the FSW can lapse without limiting the capacity of the Fund to support its members. To ensure adequate borrowing space under the emergency financing limits for those countries that have received support through the FSW, the IMF also extended the additional 25 percent of quota added to the Cumulative Access Limit until end-2026 for countries that have accessed the Food Shock Window through the RFI and until the completion of the 2024/25 PRGT review for those that accessed the Food Shock Window through the RCF.
Keywords:
Cumulative Access Limits; Rapid Financing Instrument; Rapid Credit Facility; Food Insecurity; FSW request; FSW financing; UCT-quality program; FSW relative; FSW experience; FSW resource; Food security; Food prices; Emergency assistance; Balance of payments need; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mali: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Mali
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that Mali’s economy has been hit by multiple shocks since 2020 but remained resilient in 2022 amid high inflation. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth increased from 3.1 percent in 2021 to 3.7 percent in 2022, despite elevated security and socio-political challenges, regional sanctions in the first half of 2022 and a high incidence of food insecurity. Growth is projected to rebound to over 5 percent in 2023 and 2024, assuming strong agricultural and gold output. However, the economic outlook is subject to significant downside risks. They include a worsening security situation, potential election delays, volatile international commodity prices, tighter global financial conditions, and climate risks. The government’s fiscal deficit reflects a rapid increase in security spending, public wages, and the interest bill, which are crowding out growth-friendly spending including those on the social safety net and capital investment. Mali’s current account deficit improved slightly in 2022, down to 6.9 percent of GDP from 7.5 percent in 2021, on account of higher gold exports and lower capital goods imports.
Keywords:
Malian authorities' effort; authorities' roadmap; B. financing condition; concerted effort; medium-term projection; Government debt management; Debt sustainability; Global; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mali: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on climate vulnerabilities and food insecurity in Mali. Mali is extremely vulnerable to climate change and the country is already facing acute climate-related challenges from higher temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events. The impact of climate change has also contributed to a rise in food insecurity, with almost a quarter of the population expected to be either facing food insecurity or at risk of doing so by mid-2023. That is already having a hugely damaging effect on Mali’s economy and action is needed immediately to avoid a further increase in food insecurity. Building future resilience to climate change will require effective adaptation strategies in the primary sector. With climate change already adding to food insecurity in Mali, there is an urgent need to address these related issues. The country is extremely vulnerable to climate change, and food insecurity is rising. Any further increase in food insecurity has the potential to exacerbate social tensions, with the risk of further conflict. It will also have a lasting adverse impact on economic growth and poverty. There is therefore a pressing need to act immediately.
Keywords:
wage bill; Mali debt Dynamics scenario; reform priority; Customs administration website; governance diagnostic; Climate change; Food security; Wages; Public sector wages; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Food Insecurity and Climate Shocks in Madagascar: Republic of Madagascar
Dominique Fayad
Food insecurity dramatically increased in Madagascar over the last 10 years, hampering human development. Using most recent data and surveys conducted by UN Agencies and local authorities, this paper analyzes the root causes of food insecurity in Madagascar related to demographic vulnerabilities, multidimensional poverty, lack of education, as well as structural weaknesses in the food value chain and the lack of basic infrastructure, such as irrigation and transportation, that hamper agricultural activity development. Moreover, Madagascar is exposed to a large variety of climate shocks that climate change will likely exacerbate. This paper formulates country specific macroeconomic and operational policy recommendations in collaboration with the World Food Program to reduce food insecurity, which include i) measures to improve the emergency response and preparedness, ii) policies to address structural food insecurity, by improving the food chain and addressing challenges posed by climate shocks, and iii) measures to improve Green PFM and climate related public investment management to invest in long-term resilience and mobilize external financing.
Keywords:
Food Insecurity; Climate Change; Public Finance; Madagascar; food value chain; policy recommendation; value chain; climate change risk; food inflation; food consumption; Natural disasters; Food security; Global; Caribbean; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nepal: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper utilizes a new macro-model capturing food insecurity, migration and trade in Nepal. It shows that low yields and remoteness explain a majority of the difference in prevalence of food insecurity across districts in Nepal; both climate shocks and persistent climate-change increase food insecurity and disproportionately harm the most vulnerable; and lower wages in migrant destinations would reduce remittances, increase food insecurity and lower welfare. The paper then presents and quantifies a number of potential policies to address these issues. The paper quantifies the impact of a number of policy options (cash transfers, better infrastructure, and improved agricultural productivity) to address food insecurity and climate change. In addition to climate shocks, persistent climate change will lower welfare, increase food insecurity, and migration. Given the model results show that agricultural productivity is a key determinant of food security, Nepal can learn from other countries policies including in agricultural extension, improved community water management techniques, and climate resilient agriculture in line with the National Adaptation Plan.
Keywords:
food insecurity in Nepal; NAC's risk rating; migration cost; remittances in Nepal; NAC's borrowing; Climate change; Food security; Loans; Migration; Global