Following two military coups in 2022, Burkina Faso remains committed to return to constitutional order, via democratic elections, by July 2024. Deviations from this timeline could put at risk the relationships with financial partners and donors. Deteriorating security, unfavorable climate conditions, the disruption of international supply-chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are all factors that contributed to sharply rising food prices during 2021-2022. As a result, food access for poor households deteriorated significantly, and at present about 3.4 million Burkinabé (out of a population of 21.5 million) are in conditions of food crisis, while one province is in a situation of food emergency, as defined by the World Food Program. In addition, the adverse impact on the current account of price increases for key cereals and fertilizers is estimated to amount to 0.4 percent of GDP cumulatively during 2022 and 2023. The overall costs to fully address food insecurity over the next year are estimated to be up to 3.5 percent of GDP.
Mr. Bjoern Rother, Mr. Sebastian Sosa, Majdi Debbich, Chiara Castrovillari, and Ervin Prifti
The global food crisis remains a major challenge. Food insecurity fueled by widely experienced increases in the cost of living has become a growing concern especially in low-income countries, even if price pressures on global food markets have softened somewhat since the onset of Russia’s war in Ukraine in February 2022. Targeted assistance to the most vulnerable households combined with policy measures to support trade and agriculture systems, including to better cope with climate shocks, can help countries withstand the fallout of the ongoing food crisis while building longer-term resilience. The IMF, working in close cooperation with other international organizations, has continued to contribute to international efforts to alleviate food insecurity by providing policy advice, capacity development, and financial support through Upper Credit Tranche Arrangements and the new Food Shock Window. New commitments to countries particularly affected by the global food crisis total $13.2 billion since February 2022, of which $3.7 billion has been disbursed as of March 2023.
Against the backdrop of high international food and fertilizer prices, this paper discusses food insecurity in Nigeria, investigates its drivers in a cross-country setting, and assesses the role of policies. Using two proxies for food security, we find that high per capita consumption, high yields and low food inflation support food security. Cross-country estimates of yields and production provided by the FAO/OECD reveal that use of inputs is lower in Nigeria than in other countries, and that policies to raise crop yields positively correlate with better food security conditions. The paper also uses detailed domestic commodity price indices to assess linkages with international prices and the role of import bans. Central bank policies for funding agriculture and import bans have not managed to stimulate agricultural output nor moderated the impact of international food prices. Rather, policies should focus on use of inputs that are severely underused in Nigeria as elsewhere in SSA.
Diogo Miguel Salgado Baptista, Yoro Diallo, and Mr. Arsene Kaho
Niger’s exposure to recurrent shocks, including climate shocks, increases its vulnerability to food insecurity. This paper aims to quantify the combined effects of climate shocks and food insecurity on key economic variables and identify the most effective mitigation policy responses using a general equilibrium model. Results indicate that rural households would be the most affected by a climate shock resulting in a decline in domestic agricultural production, which would reduce their consumption, erode their capital, and thus increase urban-rural inequalities. Simulations show that cash transfers and the reduction of internal mobility costs appear to be more effective in mitigating the impact on households of a climate shock on agricultural production.