Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

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Bilal Tabti
The transition to a vibrant economy under Oman Vision 2040 and the urgency to develop a more dynamic private sector that can absorb the entry of a young and educated labor force both stress the need to empower SMEs, which play a large role in supporting job creation and nonhydrocarbon activity in Oman. This note takes stock of the role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Oman, identifies past and current bottlenecks that hinder entrepreneurial dynamism, and documents recent reforms aimed at lowering the costs associated with doing business, facilitating access to finance, and enhancing the integration of SMEs into value chains. The analysis suggests that policies complementing existing initiatives, through a private sector driven credit guarantee scheme, by adapting insolvency frameworks tailored to SMEs, and supporting linkages between SMEs and multinational enterprises in Special Economic Zones (SEZs), could help maximize long-term gains to SMEs and the broader economy.
Mohamed Belkhir
Motivated by Oman’s economic transformation agenda, this paper: (i) takes stock of the state of digitalization in Oman; (ii) provides an illustration of potential gains from enhanced digitalization; and (iii) highlights policy priorities that can support the authorities endeavors in advancing their digitalization agenda. The findings suggest that while Oman has progressed well on some aspects of digitalization, it still needs to deploy additional investments and efforts to match its GCC peers on several other aspects and accelerate its economic transformation.
Thomas Pointek
Despite recent government-led initiatives to improve investor access and encourage participation by local businesses, capital markets in Oman remain relatively small and illiquid and the investor base remains dominated by domestic banks and pension funds. This paper reviews the experiences of other emerging markets in developing local capital markets, and describes the challenges faced in the development of such markets. The review shows establishing a functioning money and local currency bond market remains a critical first step in successful capital markets' development, while several policy tools beyond tax incentives can be employed to support participation in local markets. Increasing the presence of life insurance companies and reducing information asymmetries would help spur demand from a broader set of institutional investors.
Bilal Tabti
and
Haytem Troug
The prevalent strong preference for public sector employment among young Omanis, coupled with demographic pressures and medium-term fiscal sustainability objectives amid economic diversification away from hydrocarbons, underscores the urgency to pivot towards a more dynamic private sector that attracts Omanis towards private sector jobs. This note delves into recent developments and structural idiosyncrasies in Oman's labor market, highlighting distinct segmentation and limited mobility, which disincentivized upskilling and impeded sectoral labor reallocation. The analysis reveals that comprehensive reforms are needed to narrow the public-private wage gap, boost private sector employment for nationals, and elevate overall productivity. These include aligning wages with productivity, improving vocational training, fostering female labor market participation, and enhancing labor market mobility for expatriate workers. Implementing these measures is pivotal for Oman to realize its Vision 2040 objectives, transitioning towards a knowledge-based economy, and achieving sustainable nonhydrocarbon growth.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
حققت سلطنة عُمان تحسنا ملحوظا في أساسيات اقتصادها. فقد تحسن مركز المالية العامة والمركز الخارجي تحسنا كبيرا، في حين يشهد النمو غير الهيدروكربوني انتعاشا في ظل انخفاض التضخم. كما زادت ثقة المستثمرين، مما يمهد الطريق لزيادة استثمارات القطاع الخاص. ويمكن لجهود لإصلاح المستمرة تعظيم المكاسب المتحققة من هذه الإنجازات، والمساعدة على تحقيق التحول الاقتصادي المستهدف على النحو الوارد في رؤية عُمان 2040.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper reviews the experiences of other emerging markets in developing local capital markets, and describes the challenges faced in the development of such markets. Efforts are ongoing to develop the local currency bond market, supported by IMF technical assistance. Initiatives are underway to enhance access to the domestic equity market and increase its depth and liquidity. Still underdeveloped debt markets and systemic excess liquidity have driven a hold-to-maturity culture among investors, as several of the preconditions for liquid secondary markets are not met. Improving the government debt issuance strategy would enhance overall transparency and help increase secondary market liquidity. The review shows establishing a functioning money and local currency bond market remains a critical first step in successful capital markets' development, while several policy tools beyond tax incentives can be employed to support participation in local markets. Increasing the presence of life insurance companies and reducing information asymmetries would help spur demand from a broader set of institutional investors.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that supported by favorable hydrocarbon revenues and steadfast reform efforts, Oman’s economy continues to expand amidst low inflation. Fiscal and external surpluses continued in 2024 and are expected over the medium term. The banking sector remains sound. Profitability has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, capital and liquidity buffers are ample, while asset quality remains strong. Banks’ net foreign assets turned positive by end of 2023 for the first time since 2014. The authorities continue pursuing prudent fiscal management, amidst the successful rollout of the social protection law. The 2025 budget is set to preserve fiscal discipline, further lowering the nonhydrocarbon primary deficit, while maintaining spending on social safety nets broadly unchanged relative to 2024. The banking sector is sound, amidst continued efforts to strengthen regulatory and supervisory frameworks. Sustained implementation of reforms under Oman Vision 2040 will be key to achieving sustainable, job rich, and private sector-led nonhydrocarbon growth. The new social protection law has been successfully rolled out. Labor market reforms are ongoing, supported by the new labor law.
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
On November 15, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy and approved a number of reforms. As an international institution, making important documents available to the public on timely basis enhances the IMF’s credibility, accountability, and effectiveness and is critical to fulfill its mandate of promoting global economic and financial stability. While transparency at the IMF is achieved through a range of policies and practices, the Transparency Policy and the Open Archives Policy form the core elements of the IMF’s transparency framework. The Fund has come a long way since the inception of these policies in the early nineties. Most Board documents are now published, published more quickly, and under more consistent and evenhanded application of modification rules. The information available in the Fund’s archives has increased and is more easily accessible to the public. While experience suggests that these policies are effective in delivering on their objectives, the landscape in which the Fund operates has evolved since these policies were last reviewed in 2013. In a more interconnected and shock-prone world the pace with which policymakers need to make decisions has accelerated and the expectations of stakeholders on the availability and timeliness of the Fund’s analysis and policy advice has grown. Against this backdrop, the 2024 Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy focuses on targeted reforms to (i) support faster publication of board documents and communications of Board’s decisions; (ii) strengthen the rules and processes to modify Board documents prior to publication; and (iii) allow faster release of some documents in the Fund’s archives accessible to the public. The reforms further clarify the scope and objectives of these policies, their implementation processes, and how to strengthen knowledge sharing. The review was supported by data analysis as well as surveys and consultations with key stakeholders, including Executive Directors, country authorities, IMF missions chiefs, and civil society organizations as detailed in the three background papers accompanying this 2024 review.