Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

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Bilal Tabti
The transition to a vibrant economy under Oman Vision 2040 and the urgency to develop a more dynamic private sector that can absorb the entry of a young and educated labor force both stress the need to empower SMEs, which play a large role in supporting job creation and nonhydrocarbon activity in Oman. This note takes stock of the role of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Oman, identifies past and current bottlenecks that hinder entrepreneurial dynamism, and documents recent reforms aimed at lowering the costs associated with doing business, facilitating access to finance, and enhancing the integration of SMEs into value chains. The analysis suggests that policies complementing existing initiatives, through a private sector driven credit guarantee scheme, by adapting insolvency frameworks tailored to SMEs, and supporting linkages between SMEs and multinational enterprises in Special Economic Zones (SEZs), could help maximize long-term gains to SMEs and the broader economy.
Mr. Alberto Behar
We estimate the elasticity of private-sector employment to non-oil GDP in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) for GCC nationals and expatriates using a Seemingly Unrelated Error Correction (SUREC) model. Our results indicate that the employment response is lower for nationals, who have an estimated short-run elasticity of only 0.15 and a long-run response of 0.7 or less. The elasticity is almost unity for expatriates in the long run and 0.35 in the short run. We interpret low elasticities as indirect evidence of labor market adjustment costs, which could include hiring and firing rigidities, skills mismatches, and reluctance to accept private sector jobs. Forecasts suggest that, absent measures to reduce adjustment costs, the private sector will only be able to absorb a small portion of nationals entering the labor force.
Mr. Alberto Behar
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Mr. Junghwan Mok
We quantify the extent to which public-sector employment crowds out private-sector employment using specially assembled datasets for a large cross-section of developing and advanced countries, and discuss the implications for countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Caucasus and Central Asia. These countries simultaneously display high unemployment rates, low private-sector employment rates and high proportions of government-sector employment. Regressions of either private-sector employment rates or unemployment rates on two measures of public-sector employment point to full crowding out. This means that high rates of public employment, which incur substantial fiscal costs, have a large negative impact on private employment rates and do not reduce overall unemployment rates.