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Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

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Cover Policy Papers
2024 Review Of The Fund's Transparency Policy And Open Archives Policy—Background Paper 1 On Key Trends
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
On November 15, 2024, the IMF’s Executive Board concluded the Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy and approved a number of reforms. As an international institution, making important documents available to the public on timely basis enhances the IMF’s credibility, accountability, and effectiveness and is critical to fulfill its mandate of promoting global economic and financial stability. While transparency at the IMF is achieved through a range of policies and practices, the Transparency Policy and the Open Archives Policy form the core elements of the IMF’s transparency framework. The Fund has come a long way since the inception of these policies in the early nineties. Most Board documents are now published, published more quickly, and under more consistent and evenhanded application of modification rules. The information available in the Fund’s archives has increased and is more easily accessible to the public. While experience suggests that these policies are effective in delivering on their objectives, the landscape in which the Fund operates has evolved since these policies were last reviewed in 2013. In a more interconnected and shock-prone world the pace with which policymakers need to make decisions has accelerated and the expectations of stakeholders on the availability and timeliness of the Fund’s analysis and policy advice has grown. Against this backdrop, the 2024 Review of the IMF’s Transparency Policy and Open Archives Policy focuses on targeted reforms to (i) support faster publication of board documents and communications of Board’s decisions; (ii) strengthen the rules and processes to modify Board documents prior to publication; and (iii) allow faster release of some documents in the Fund’s archives accessible to the public. The reforms further clarify the scope and objectives of these policies, their implementation processes, and how to strengthen knowledge sharing. The review was supported by data analysis as well as surveys and consultations with key stakeholders, including Executive Directors, country authorities, IMF missions chiefs, and civil society organizations as detailed in the three background papers accompanying this 2024 review.
Keywords:
Accountability; Archives; Communication; Independence; Lending; Modification Rules; Publication; Surveillance Transparency; country paper; publication rate; transparency Policy review; IMF's transparency Policy; lags of country document; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Income; Financial sector; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Central and Eastern Europe; Global; Caribbean
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Embedded in Nature: Nature-Related Economic and Financial Risks and Policy Considerations
Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini
,
William Oman
,
Jamie Fraser
,
Mariza Montes de Oca Leon
, and
Bella Yao
The economy is embedded in, and dependent on, nature. Yet economic activity is degrading nature at an unprecedented pace. Interacting with climate change, nature loss and transformation generates significant threats to the global economy and financial system. However, work on the implications of nature-related risks for macroeconomic and financial sector policies remains at an early stage. This note seeks to contribute to this emerging policy space in three main ways: (i) it proposes a conceptual framework for understanding nature-related risks by mapping out macroeconomic transmission channels, emphasizing their impact on the economy and financial systems through “double materiality;” (ii) it conducts empirical analysis, finding that nearly 38 percent of bank loans of the 100 largest global banks are to harmful subsidies-dependent sectors and 44 percent are exposed to conservation areas under the Global Biodiversity Framework, and that industries most exposed to nature degradation are not well prepared to manage these risks; and (iii) it discusses takeaways for macroeconomic and financial sector policies and frameworks.
Keywords:
nature; environment; macroeconomics; macroeconomic policies; financial stability; banks; nature-related risks; financial regulation; financial supervision; Minsky moment; ecosystem services; planetary boundaries.; IMF staff climate note; ecosystem service; biodiversity loss; biodiversity conservation; biodiversity hotspot; Environmental policy; Climate change; Financial sector policy; Natural resources; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
GCC policymakers have managed to quickly mitigate the economic impact of the twin COVID-19 and oil price shock. Commodity prices have surged, and the outlook is more positive for GCC countries, with new challenges linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tighter global financial conditions expected to have a limited impact on GCC economies. While GCC countries have overall benefited from higher, albeit volatile hydrocarbon prices, numerous risks still cloud the outlook—notably a slowdown in the global economy. In this context, the reform momentum established during the low oil price years should be maintained—irrespective of the level of hydrocarbon prices.
Keywords:
inflation dynamics; diversification Index; food CPI weight; Oil prices; Financial conditions index; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Saudi’s Growth and Financial Spillovers to Other GCC Countries: An Empirical Analysis
Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji
,
Mr. Sohaib Shahid
, and
Ling Zhu
This paper examines real and financial linkages between Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries. Growth spillovers from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain are found to be sizeable and statistically significant, but those to other GCC countries are not found to be significant. Equity market movements in Saudi Arabia are found to have significant implications for other GCC countries, while there is no evidence of co-movements in bonds markets. These findings suggest some degree of interdependence among GCC countries.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; GCC sovereign bond market spillover; Growth; Gulf Corporation Council; Spillovers; growth shock; equity market movement; GCC bond spread; GCC equity; Stock markets; Yield curve; Sovereign bonds; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC
Padamja Khandelwal
,
Mr. Ken Miyajima
, and
Mr. Andre O Santos
This paper examines the links between global oil price movements and macroeconomic and financial developments in the GCC. Using a range of multivariate panel approaches, including a panel vector autoregression approach, it finds strong empirical evidence of feedback loops between oil price movements, bank balance sheets, and asset prices. Empirical evidence also suggests that bank capital and provisioning have behaved countercyclically through the cycle.
Keywords:
WP; NPL ratio; oil price; price growth; GCC bank; Macro-financial linkages; nonperforming loans; panel vector autoregression; asset price appreciation; bank asset quality; Oil prices; Credit; Financial cycles; Capital adequacy requirements; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Oil Prices, Financial Stability, and the Use of Countercyclical Macroprudential Policies in the GCC
International Monetary Fund
Economic and financial developments in the GCC economies are interwoven with oil price movements. GCC economies are highly dependent on oil and gas exports. Oil price upturns lead to higher oil revenues, stronger fiscal and external positions, and higher government spending. This boosts corporate profitability and equity prices and strengthens bank balance sheets, but can also lead to the buildup of systemic vulnerabilities in the financial sector. Banks in the GCC are well-capitalized, liquid, and profitable at present, and well-positioned to manage structural systemic risks. However, oil-macro-financial linkages mean that asset quality and liquidity in the financial system may deteriorate in a low oil price environment and financial sector stress may emerge. The scope for amplification of oil price shocks through the financial sector suggests a role for a countercyclical approach to macroprudential policies. Countercyclical macroprudential policy can prove useful to reduce the buildup of systemic risks in the financial sector during upswings, and to cushion against disruption to financial services during periods of financial sector stress. The GCC countries have considerable experience with implementing a wide range of macroprudential policies, but these policies have not generally been adjusted through the cycle. GCC central banks implemented several macroprudential measures before the global financial crisis and have continued to enhance their macroprudential frameworks and toolkits to limit systemic financial sector risks. Although there is some evidence of macroprudential tools being adjusted in a countercyclical way, most of the tools have not been adjusted over the financial cycle. Further enhancements to the GCC macroprudential framework are needed to support the countercyclical use of these policies. A comprehensive and established framework, supported by strong institutional capacity, is essential for countercyclical macroprudential policies. This framework should provide clear assignment of responsibilities and guidance on how policies will be implemented to maintain financial stability and manage systemic risks over the financial cycle. Addressing data gaps and the further development of reliable early warning indicators in signaling potential systemic stress are needed to help guide the countercyclical use of a broad set of macroprudential policies. Expanding the countercyclical policy toolkit and its coverage can help address emerging financial sector risks. The implementation of countercyclical capital buffers and dynamic loan loss provisions could boost resilience in line with systemic risks faced in GCC economies. At the same time, using existing macroprudential policies countercyclically would prove useful to address emerging financial sector risks in a more targeted way. Expanding the coverage of macroprudential tools to nonbanks can help boost effectiveness by reducing leakages.
Keywords:
PP; oil price; GCC country; GCC bank; GCC economy; GCC business cycle; financial system; Oil prices; Macroprudential policy; Macroprudential policy instruments; Financial sector risk; Nonperforming loans; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global and Regional Spillovers to GCC Equity Markets
Tahsin Saadi Sedik
and
Mr. Oral Williams
This paper analyzes the impact of global and regional spillovers to GCC equity markets. GCC equity markets were impacted by spillovers from U.S. equity markets despite varying degrees of foreign participation. Spillovers from regional equity markets were also important but the magnitude of the effects were on average smaller than that from mature markets. The results also illustrated episodes of contagion in particular during the recent global financial crisis. The findings suggest that given the degree of openness, and open capital accounts the financial channel is an important source through which volatility is transmitted. In this regard, GCC equity markets are not immune from global and regional financial shocks. These findings refute the notion of decoupling between the GCC equity and global equity markets.
Keywords:
WP; GCC equity markets; GCC; Stock markets; spillovers; contagion; financial integration; GCC market; GCC Index; GCC economy; country stock exchanges; country j equity market; response to a rise; Oil prices; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Market capitalization; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Oman: Banking Sector Resilience
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
and
Pierluigi Bologna
This note assesses the impact of the global financial risks on Oman's banking system and highlights the remaining risks. It concludes that the liquidity and prudential measures introduced by the authorities mitigated the adverse effects of the crisis on the banking system. Banks continue to make profits despite higher provisioning. Stress tests confirm the resilience of the banking system to credit and market risks. Banks have limited exposure to derivatives and the majority of the off-balance sheet exposures are conventional and relatively secure. Interest rate risks are within an acceptable range.
Keywords:
WP; bank; banking system; banking sector; central bank; interest rate; Omani bank; Oman; Risks; Stress Test; Gulf Cooperation Council Countries; banking system assets; bank efficiency; risk-management practice; banks Risk; credit portfolio; banks capital; Commercial banks; Credit; Nonperforming loans; Bank soundness; Loans; Global