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Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Mitigating Fiscal Risks in Oman
Abdullah Alhassan
and
Dalia Aita
Fiscal risks are multifaceted in Oman and their potential impact on the fiscal position could be significant. Identification, monitoring, transparent reporting, and effective risk management of fiscal risks are a key component of a sound medium-term fiscal framework and paramount in underpinning fiscal credibility and the sustainability of public finances. This note revisits the exposure of Oman’s fiscal position to an array of potential risks, zooming in on the impact of oil price volatility and potential risks stemming from state-owned enterprises. It documents actions taken by Omani policymakers to mitigate the impact of fiscal risks and provides further recommendations on fiscal risk disclosure and management.
Keywords:
Oman; Fiscal Risks; Oil Price; Transparency; oil price volatility; copyright page; impact of fiscal risk; SOEs performance; SOEs debt; budget preparation process; downside oil price scenario; SOEs governance; Oil prices; Public enterprises; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
طنة عُمان: سلطنة عُمان مشاورات المادة الرابعة لعام 2023
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
التضخم للمستمر. أما معدا لإصلاحا ة وزخميتاومه أسعار النفط المععافيا تدت يشهد النشاط الاقتصاد اق:يسلا ىلع ضئاوف قيقحت إلى يرلجاا سابحلاة وملعاا ةيالملا ةصدرأ تلوحت ،زلعجا نم تاونس عدبف .نخفضام لظف عم ايربنخفاضا كا العام عالقطا نيد ضنخفاة. ومة العايللمال ةيلاحترازا ةرادلإاأسعار الطاقة و عفاترا ةيفلخ نامُع ةيؤر" ذينفت يف اريبا كمدقت تاطللسا ترزحوأ .نوديلر لكبملا دالسدا يف ةيتثنائسلاا تاروفولا ماتخدسا تانوبوكررديهلا ىلع نامُع نةطلس تمادعا نم ه للحدب غي القيامبما ينم ثيركناك اله لالا يز نكول ،"2040 .ينوبدروكريهر اليغ وملنا آفاق زيعزتو
Keywords:
سلطنة عُمان مشاورات المادة الرابعة لعام 2023 البيان الصحفي ، وتقرير خرباء الصندوق، ومرفق المعلومات
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Oman
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Oman’s economic recovery continues while inflation remains contained which is supported by favorable oil prices and sustained reform momentum. The banking sector remains resilient. Profitability has recovered to prepandemic levels, capital and liquidity ratios are well above regulatory requirements, and nonperforming loans remain low and sufficiently provisioned. Stress tests suggest that banks are resilient to credit and liquidity shocks. Risks to the economic outlook are balanced. Sustaining the reform momentum under Oman Vision 2040 will be key to building resilience and boosting prospects for more inclusive, diversified, and sustainable private sector-led non-hydrocarbon growth. This requires further efforts to improve institutional quality, reduce the state footprint, and enhance the business environment, which in turn would help amplify productivity gains from labor market and financial development reforms. It also calls for the steadfast implementation of the new social protection and labor laws, leveraging digitalization, and accelerating green investments and advancing policies to meet climate commitments.
Keywords:
Omani authorities; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; article IV consultation mission; SOE divestment drive; state footprint; arrangements in Oman; Government asset and liability management; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses Oman’s strong vaccination efforts have allowed for the relaxation of all social distancing restrictions, and the economic recovery is gaining traction. Uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook, with downside risks dominating in the short run. Reinforcing fiscal sustainability over the medium term, as envisaged under the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan, requires further revenue and expenditure measures. The exchange rate peg continues to serve Oman well. Efforts to strengthen the monetary transmission mechanism and establish the treasury single account should be carefully coordinated to maintain adequate banking system liquidity. Prudential rules should be restored to pre-pandemic levels as the impact of the pandemic declines. Close monitoring of banks’ asset quality remains essential. Steadfast implementation of reforms under Vision 2040 is needed to foster strong, job-rich, private sector-led growth. This would require enhancing labor market flexibility, improving the business environment, advancing state-owned-enterprises reforms, leveraging digitalization, and tackling climate challenges.
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; banking system liquidity; article IV consultation mission; oil price outlook; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; liquidity management framework; Fiscal consolidation; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
Non-hydrocarbon growth; net financial assets; Non-hydrocarbon sector; hydrocarbon revenue; revenue projection; Fiscal governance; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Assessing Banking Sector Vulnerabilities in the Gulf Cooperation Council in the Wake of COVID-19
Abdullah Al-Hassan
,
Imen Benmohamed
,
Aidyn Bibolov
,
Giovanni Ugazio
, and
Ms. Tian Zhang
The Gulf Cooperation Council region faced a significant economic toll from the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks in 2020. Policymakers responded to the pandemic with decisive and broad measures to support households and businesses and mitigate the long-term impact on the economy. Financial vulnerabilities have been generally contained, reflecting ongoing policy support and the rebound in economic activity and oil prices, as well as banks entering the COVID-19 crisis with strong capital, liquidity, and profitability. The banking systems remained well-capitalized, but profitability and asset quality were adversely affected. Ongoing COVID-19 policy support could also obscure deterioration in asset quality. Policymakers need to continue to strike a balance between supporting recovery and mitigating risks to financial stability, including ensuring that banks’ buffers are adequate to withstand prolonged pandemic and withdrawal of COVID-related policy support measures. Addressing data gaps would help policymakers to further assess vulnerabilities and mitigate sectoral risks.
Keywords:
COVID-19; banking performance; corporates performance; sovereign-banks-economy nexus; bank asset quality; oil price shock; policy support; assessing banking sector vulnerability; C. bank assets quality; Financial statements; Commercial banks; Loans; Credit; Global; Middle East
Cover Policy Papers
Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries - 2021
International Monetary Fund
GCC policymakers moved quickly to mitigate the health and economic impacts of twin COVID-19 and oil price shocks. Infection rates have declined across the GCC to well below previous peaks, though countries have experienced successive waves of the virus, and economic recoveries have begun to take hold. Nevertheless, GCC policymakers must navigate a challenging and uncertain landscape. The pandemic continues to cloud the global outlook as countries are in different phases of recovery, with varied growth prospects and policy space
Keywords:
oil market development; oil growth; oil balance; climate change impact; GCC economy; Oil prices; COVID-19; Oil consumption; Climate change; Global; Fiscal stance
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Oman
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Sultan Haitham ascended to the throne in January 2020 and has committed to implementing strong fiscal and structural reforms to address longstanding vulnerabilities. In addition to persistent fiscal deficits arising from incomplete adjustment to lower oil prices since 2015, Oman faced twin shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic and a collapse in oil prices in 2020 that amplified fiscal and external vulnerabilities. The authorities moved rapidly to contain the spread of COVID-19 infections and provided broad-based policy measures to limit its impact on the economy. In addition, frontloaded fiscal consolidation has been implemented in the 2021 budget as part of the authorities’ Medium-Term Fiscal Plan (MTFP) which aims to eliminate the fiscal deficit over the medium term. Banks have high capital buffers and liquidity, but credit risk is a concern going forward. Structural reforms have been accelerated under Oman Vision 2040 to boost non-oil private sector growth and facilitate job creation.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; Omani authorities; government financing; hydrocarbon revenue; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Global; Middle East
Cover Policy Papers
Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic is having far-reaching consequences for the global economy. Measures to contain the spread of the virus have led to sharp declines in economic activity across the globe, particularly in 2020Q2. The hardest hit sectors have been those requiring intensive human contact, such as tourism, transportation, services, and construction, while, in general, IT-intensive activities have fared better. The economic contraction is most significant in advanced economies. The GCC countries face a double impact from the coronavirus and lower oil prices. GCC authorities have implemented a range of appropriate measures to mitigate the economic damage, including fiscal packages, relaxation of monetary and macroprudential rules, and the injection of liquidity into the banking system, and there are recent signs of improvement. Low oil prices have caused a sharp deterioration of external and fiscal balances, and fiscal strains are evident in countries with higher debt levels.
Keywords:
PP; GCC country; IMF staff calculation; GCC authorities; labor market; GCC economy; GCC inflation; central bank; COVID-19; Oil prices; Fiscal consolidation; Oil; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Adjustment in the Gulf Countries: Less Costly than Previously Thought
Mr. Armand P Fouejieu
,
Mr. Sergio L. Rodriguez
, and
Mr. Sohaib Shahid
This paper estimates fiscal multipliers for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Using OLS panel fixed effects on a sample of six countries from 1990-2016, results indicate that GCC fiscal multipliers have declined in recent years which would make the on-going fiscal consolidation less costly than previously thought. Though both capital and current multipliers have declined in recent years, capital multipliers are larger than current multipliers, which implies that reducing (less productive) current spending will help limit the adverse impact of such measures on growth.
Keywords:
WP; government spending; GDP; multiplier; Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Multiplier; GCC; oil GDP; GCC country; spending multiplier; tourism expenditure; spending growth; Capital spending; Current spending; Fiscal multipliers; Fiscal consolidation; Global