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Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
Non-hydrocarbon growth; net financial assets; Non-hydrocarbon sector; hydrocarbon revenue; revenue projection; Fiscal governance; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Global
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Mobilizing Private Climate Financing in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
,
Ms. Elena Loukoianova
,
Alan Xiaochen Feng
, and
William Oman
Global investment to achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature and adaptation goals requires immediate actions—first and foremost—on climate policies. Policies should be accompanied by commensurate financing flows to close the large financing gap globally, and in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) in particular. This note discusses potential ways to mobilize domestic and foreign private sector capital in climate finance, as a complement to climate-related policies, by mitigating relevant risks and constraints through public-private partnerships involving multilateral, regional, and national development banks. It also overviews the role the IMF can play in the process.
Keywords:
climate finance; sustainable finance; climate change; sustainable development; financial policy; capital flows; IMF staff Climate note; IMF analysis; venture capital; private sector capital; climate investment; economic gain; public finance; adaptation investment; private sector investor; Bloomberg finance L.P.; investment project; equity capital; adaptation investment project; climate investment decision; Public sector; Non-renewable resources; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: The Economic Outlook and Policy Challenges in the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund
Global economic activity is gaining momentum. Global growth is forecast at 3.6 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2018, compared to 3.2 percent in 2016. Risks around this forecast are broadly balanced in the near term, but are skewed to the downside over the medium term. The more positive global growth environment should support somewhat stronger oil demand. With inflation in advanced countries remaining subdued, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative. GCC countries are continuing to adjust to lower oil prices. Substantial fiscal consolidation has taken place in most countries, mainly focused on expenditure reduction. This is necessary, but it has weakened non-oil growth. With the pace of fiscal consolidation set to slow, non-oil growth is expected to increase to 2.6 percent this year, from 1.8 percent last year. However, because of lower oil output, overall real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.5 percent in 2017 from 2.2 percent in 2016. Growth prospects in the medium-term remain subdued amid relatively low oil prices and geopolitical risks. Policymakers have made a strong start in adjusting fiscal policy. While the needed pace of fiscal adjustment varies across countries depending on the fiscal space available, in general countries should continue to focus on recurrent expenditure rationalization, further energy price reforms, increased non-oil revenues, and improved efficiency of capital spending. Fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by a further improvement in fiscal frameworks and institutions. The direction of fiscal policy in the GCC is broadly consistent with these recommendations. Policies should continue to be geared toward managing evolving liquidity situations in the banking system and supporting the private sector’s access to funding. While countries have made progress in enhancing their financial policy frameworks, strengthening liquidity forecasting and developing liquidity management instruments will help banks adjust to a tighter liquidity environment. Banks generally remain profitable, well capitalized, and liquid, but with growth expected to remain relatively weak, the monitoring of financial sector vulnerabilities should continue to be enhanced. Diversification and private sector development will be needed to offset lower government spending and ensure stronger, sustainable, and inclusive growth. This will require stepped-up reforms to improve the business climate and reduce the role of the public sector in the economy through privatization and PPPs. Reforms are needed to increase the incentives for nationals to work in the private sector and for private sector firms to hire them. Increasing female participation in the labor market and employment would benefit productivity and growth across the region. Where fiscal space is available, fiscal policy can be used to support the structural reforms needed to boost private sector growth and employment.
Keywords:
PP; price; oil price; rate; Kuwait; No GCC; federal funds rate; current account; energy price reform; U.A.E. Qatar's export; commodity price rebound; forward rate; energy price; overnight rate; private sector development; price assumption; equity price; Oil prices; Fiscal consolidation; Real interest rates; Public sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Comparing the Employment-Output Elasticities of Expatriates and Nationals in the Gulf Cooperation Council
Mr. Alberto Behar
We estimate the elasticity of private-sector employment to non-oil GDP in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) for GCC nationals and expatriates using a Seemingly Unrelated Error Correction (SUREC) model. Our results indicate that the employment response is lower for nationals, who have an estimated short-run elasticity of only 0.15 and a long-run response of 0.7 or less. The elasticity is almost unity for expatriates in the long run and 0.35 in the short run. We interpret low elasticities as indirect evidence of labor market adjustment costs, which could include hiring and firing rigidities, skills mismatches, and reluctance to accept private sector jobs. Forecasts suggest that, absent measures to reduce adjustment costs, the private sector will only be able to absorb a small portion of nationals entering the labor force.
Keywords:
WP; labor market; Employment Elasticities; Labor Market Adjustment Costs; GCC; Gulf Cooperation Council; Inclusive Growth; GCC country; employment growth; GCC employment; GCC labor market structure; employment response; growth forecast; employment elasticity; GCC elasticity; employment projection; employment-growth relationship; employment rigidity; GCC aggregate; Employment; Labor markets; Public employment; Labor force; Public sector; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia; North Africa; East Africa; Global
Cover GCC Countries
GCC Countries
From Oil Dependence to Diversification
Mr. Zubair Iqbal
and
Mr. Ugo Fasano-Filho

Abstract

This paper presents an overview of the unprecedented economic and social transformation witnessed by the member countries of the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC)-Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates-over the last three decades.

Keywords:
MISC PUBS; Misc.; GCC country; GCC; country; state enterprise; government; GCC economy; GCC population; GCC countries' effort; GCC area; state enterprise reform; GCC member states; GCC workforce; Labor force; Employment; Privatization; Labor markets; Stock markets; Global
Cover The Middle East and North Africa in a Changing Oil Market
The Middle East and North Africa in a Changing Oil Market
Mr. Bright E Okogu

Abstract

The world oil market has undergone a series of changes that have reduced the share of oil in the global energy balance and, with it, the influence of Middle Eastern oil exporters. In spite of oil’s loss of ground, however, Middle Eastern countries remain at the center of world oil developments. This paper focuses on the developments in the international oil market, the role of Middle Eastern countries therein, and the policy challenges arising from the dependency on oil.

Keywords:
MISC PUBS; Misc.; price; Opec; market share; OPEC output; demand; OPEC grip; OPEC price-setting practice; OPEC oil quota obligation; price collapse; MENA OPEC country; quota policy; price effect; term contract; OPEC reserve; OPEC pricing approach; supply share; reference price; Oil; Oil prices; Oil sector; gas and mining taxes; Natural gas sector; Middle East; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Azerbaijan: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper describes economic developments in the Azerbaijan Republic during the 1990s. Real GDP declined by more than 70 percent from 1992 to 1995, by which time high inflation had eroded real incomes, the exchange rate had weakened, and international reserves were nearly depleted. In early 1995, the authorities started a comprehensive stabilization program supported by the IMF’s Structural Transformation Facility. Fiscal and credit policies were tightened, while a number of structural reforms were introduced, mainly in the areas of exchange and trade liberalization.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; oil fund; broad money; fiscal policy; central bank; rate of return; economic activity; current account; foreign direct investment; Oil; Oil prices; Oil sector; gas and mining taxes; Oil production; Europe; Middle East; Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific; Baltics
Cover The Economy of the Middle East and North Africa in 1997
The Economy of the Middle East and North Africa in 1997
Mr. Mohamed A. El-Erian
and
Ms. Susan Fennell

Abstract

The economy of the Middle East and North Africa improved considerably in 1996, and remained favorable in 1997. This paper, by Mohamed A. El-Erian and Susan Fennell, presents an assessment of the recent experience of the MENA economies and examines prospects for 1998 and beyond.

Keywords:
BOOK; MENA economy; economy; GCC country; country; MENA country; economy of the Middle East and North Africa; market opening reform; wealth-enhancing effect; Oil production; Oil; Oil prices; Natural gas sector; Stock markets; Global; Maghreb; Middle East; Southeast Asia; Europe; North Africa; Asia and Pacific; East Africa
Cover Financial Systems and Labor Markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries
Financial Systems and Labor Markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This volume comprises two separate papers on key structural aspects of the reform process in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. The first paper addresses issues related to financial intermediation and reform in the context of the evolving economic environment in the GCC countries. The second discusses the labor market challenges and policy issues in the GCC countries and their implications for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

Keywords:
BOOK; GCC country; country; GCC; policy; labor market issue; national; reform measure; GCC policymaker; GCC national; Labor markets; Employment; Labor force; Stock markets; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; South Asia; Global; Foreign labor
Cover IMF Working Papers
Intra-Industry Trade of Arab Countries: An Indicator of Potential Competitiveness
Mr. Peter J Kunzel
and
Mr. Oleh Havrylyshyn
Recent and ongoing agreements to liberalize trade between the European Union (EU) and Arab countries raises the question as to how the latter will fare in a more competitive environment. This paper uses the Grubel-Lloyd intra-industry trade (IIT) index as an indicator of the degree of industrial specialization to study Arab countries’ ability to compete in a more open trade setting. It concludes that whereas increased specialization has been achieved over the last decade in Arab countries, IIT remains low not only in absolute terms, but even in a cross-country comparison, when normalized for the level of development.
Keywords:
WP; IIT level; IIT index; IIT determinant; industry trade; IIT indices; IIT regression; Exports; Trade liberalization; Manufacturing; Trade balance; Personal income; Global; Western Hemisphere