Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

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Abdullah Alhassan
and
Dalia Aita
Fiscal risks are multifaceted in Oman and their potential impact on the fiscal position could be significant. Identification, monitoring, transparent reporting, and effective risk management of fiscal risks are a key component of a sound medium-term fiscal framework and paramount in underpinning fiscal credibility and the sustainability of public finances. This note revisits the exposure of Oman’s fiscal position to an array of potential risks, zooming in on the impact of oil price volatility and potential risks stemming from state-owned enterprises. It documents actions taken by Omani policymakers to mitigate the impact of fiscal risks and provides further recommendations on fiscal risk disclosure and management.
Abdullah Al-Hassan
,
Imen Benmohamed
,
Aidyn Bibolov
,
Giovanni Ugazio
, and
Ms. Tian Zhang
The Gulf Cooperation Council region faced a significant economic toll from the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks in 2020. Policymakers responded to the pandemic with decisive and broad measures to support households and businesses and mitigate the long-term impact on the economy. Financial vulnerabilities have been generally contained, reflecting ongoing policy support and the rebound in economic activity and oil prices, as well as banks entering the COVID-19 crisis with strong capital, liquidity, and profitability. The banking systems remained well-capitalized, but profitability and asset quality were adversely affected. Ongoing COVID-19 policy support could also obscure deterioration in asset quality. Policymakers need to continue to strike a balance between supporting recovery and mitigating risks to financial stability, including ensuring that banks’ buffers are adequate to withstand prolonged pandemic and withdrawal of COVID-related policy support measures. Addressing data gaps would help policymakers to further assess vulnerabilities and mitigate sectoral risks.
Mr. Zubair Iqbal
and
Mr. Ugo Fasano-Filho

Abstract

This paper presents an overview of the unprecedented economic and social transformation witnessed by the member countries of the Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf (GCC)-Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates-over the last three decades.

Mr. Rolando Ossowski
,
Mr. Steven A Barnett
,
Mr. James Daniel
, and
Mr. Jeffrey M. Davis

Abstract

This chapter examines whether funds can help countries pursue good macroeconomic, and especially fiscal policies, and consequent design issues. Nonrenewable resource funds (NRF) have been suggested as a way of dealing with the effects of price variability, making it easier to put revenues aside when prices are high so that they can be made available to maintain expenditures when prices are low. Funds may also serve as mechanisms to allow part of the nonrenewable resource wealth to be shared by future generations. A detailed evaluation of country experience suggests that NRFs have been associated with a variety of operating rules and fiscal policy experience. In several cases, rules have been bypassed or changed and they do not themselves seem to have effectively constrained spending, and the integration of the fund's operations with overall fiscal policy has often proven problematic. Whether the political economy arguments for an NRF outweigh the potential disadvantages will need to be considered based on the situation in each country.

Mr. Ugo Fasano-Filho
The main purposes of this paper are to review the operational modalities and experience of oil funds currently in place in Norway, Chile (copper), the State of Alaska, Venezuela, Kuwait, and Oman, and to draw some preliminary conclusions on their contribution to enhance fiscal management. The outcome so far of their experience has been mixed, with differences among countries reflecting the variety of objectives attached to the funds, the challenges in adhering to established rules, the institutional set-up. and the soundness of the overall fiscal discipline in each country (or state).
Mr. Mohamed A. El-Erian
and
Ms. Susan Fennell

Abstract

The economy of the Middle East and North Africa improved considerably in 1996, and remained favorable in 1997. This paper, by Mohamed A. El-Erian and Susan Fennell, presents an assessment of the recent experience of the MENA economies and examines prospects for 1998 and beyond.

International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries face important policy challenges and opportunities. This paper covers the economic developments and policies since 1980; the impact of the GCC's external environment; the medium-term economic prospects; the broad outlines of a common adjustment and reform strategy, and the implications of adjustment in the GCC countries on the rest of the Middle East and North Africa region.