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Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

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Cover Departmental Papers
Assessing Banking Sector Vulnerabilities in the Gulf Cooperation Council in the Wake of COVID-19
Abdullah Al-Hassan
,
Imen Benmohamed
,
Aidyn Bibolov
,
Giovanni Ugazio
, and
Ms. Tian Zhang
The Gulf Cooperation Council region faced a significant economic toll from the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks in 2020. Policymakers responded to the pandemic with decisive and broad measures to support households and businesses and mitigate the long-term impact on the economy. Financial vulnerabilities have been generally contained, reflecting ongoing policy support and the rebound in economic activity and oil prices, as well as banks entering the COVID-19 crisis with strong capital, liquidity, and profitability. The banking systems remained well-capitalized, but profitability and asset quality were adversely affected. Ongoing COVID-19 policy support could also obscure deterioration in asset quality. Policymakers need to continue to strike a balance between supporting recovery and mitigating risks to financial stability, including ensuring that banks’ buffers are adequate to withstand prolonged pandemic and withdrawal of COVID-related policy support measures. Addressing data gaps would help policymakers to further assess vulnerabilities and mitigate sectoral risks.
Keywords:
COVID-19; banking performance; corporates performance; sovereign-banks-economy nexus; bank asset quality; oil price shock; policy support; assessing banking sector vulnerability; C. bank assets quality; Financial statements; Commercial banks; Loans; Credit; Global; Middle East
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Strengthening Liquidity Management Frameworks in Support of Stability and Growth in the GCC
International Monetary Fund
Effective liquidity management is important to promote macro-financial stability in the GCC countries. Fixed exchange rate regimes provide credible nominal anchors in the GCC countries, but combined with open capital accounts, they also entail limited monetary policy independence. At the same time, high dependence on hydrocarbon revenue has made the region vulnerable to oil price-driven liquidity swings. And the latter can affect monetary policy implementation, including by exacerbating credit and asset price cycles. This highlights the importance of frameworks aimed at forecasting liquidity and ensuring appropriate liquidity levels through the timely absorption or injection of liquidity by central banks. Over the past decade, liquidity management in the GCC countries has been based mainly on passive instruments. Abundant liquidity during times of high oil prices have placed liquidity absorption at the center of the central bank operations. Reserve requirements have helped absorb liquidity but have not been used very actively. Standing facilities, another key instrument, are more passive in nature, with the amount of liquidity absorbed or injected driven by banks rather than monetary authorities. Central banks bills or other instruments have also been used, but issuance has not systematically been based on market principles. In addition, these operations have been constrained by limited liquidity forecasting capability and the shallow nature of interbank and domestic debt markets.
Keywords:
PP; liquidity condition; GCC country; GCC liquidity; liquidity fluctuation; evolving liquidity challenge; liquidity development; liquidity environment; liquidity forecasting capability; liquidity imbalance; liquidity management effort; liquidity management instrument; liquidity price-discovery mechanism; liquidity management framework; management operation; liquidity forecasting; Liquidity; Liquidity management; Interbank markets; Oil prices; Interbank rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC
Padamja Khandelwal
,
Mr. Ken Miyajima
, and
Mr. Andre O Santos
This paper examines the links between global oil price movements and macroeconomic and financial developments in the GCC. Using a range of multivariate panel approaches, including a panel vector autoregression approach, it finds strong empirical evidence of feedback loops between oil price movements, bank balance sheets, and asset prices. Empirical evidence also suggests that bank capital and provisioning have behaved countercyclically through the cycle.
Keywords:
WP; NPL ratio; oil price; price growth; GCC bank; Macro-financial linkages; nonperforming loans; panel vector autoregression; asset price appreciation; bank asset quality; Oil prices; Credit; Financial cycles; Capital adequacy requirements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring Concentration Risk - A Partial Portfolio Approach
Pierpaolo Grippa
and
Lucyna Gornicka
Concentration risk is an important feature of many banking sectors, especially in emerging and small economies. Under the Basel Framework, Pillar 1 capital requirements for credit risk do not cover concentration risk, and those calculated under the Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approach explicitly exclude it. Banks are expected to compensate for this by autonomously estimating and setting aside appropriate capital buffers, which supervisors are required to assess and possibly challenge within the Pillar 2 process. Inadequate reflection of this risk can lead to insufficient capital levels even when the capital ratios seem high. We propose a flexible technique, based on a combination of “full” credit portfolio modeling and asymptotic results, to calculate capital requirements for name and sector concentration risk in banks’ portfolios. The proposed approach lends itself to be used in bilateral surveillance, as a potential area for technical assistance on banking supervision, and as a policy tool to gauge the degree of concentration risk in different banking systems.
Keywords:
WP; risk factor; concentration risk; Basel capital requirements; Pillar 2; Credit VaR; capital charge; bank portfolio; asset correlation; Basel capital framework; requirement formula; Credit risk; Credit; Asset valuation; Basel II; Vector autoregression; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Oil Prices, Financial Stability, and the Use of Countercyclical Macroprudential Policies in the GCC
International Monetary Fund
Economic and financial developments in the GCC economies are interwoven with oil price movements. GCC economies are highly dependent on oil and gas exports. Oil price upturns lead to higher oil revenues, stronger fiscal and external positions, and higher government spending. This boosts corporate profitability and equity prices and strengthens bank balance sheets, but can also lead to the buildup of systemic vulnerabilities in the financial sector. Banks in the GCC are well-capitalized, liquid, and profitable at present, and well-positioned to manage structural systemic risks. However, oil-macro-financial linkages mean that asset quality and liquidity in the financial system may deteriorate in a low oil price environment and financial sector stress may emerge. The scope for amplification of oil price shocks through the financial sector suggests a role for a countercyclical approach to macroprudential policies. Countercyclical macroprudential policy can prove useful to reduce the buildup of systemic risks in the financial sector during upswings, and to cushion against disruption to financial services during periods of financial sector stress. The GCC countries have considerable experience with implementing a wide range of macroprudential policies, but these policies have not generally been adjusted through the cycle. GCC central banks implemented several macroprudential measures before the global financial crisis and have continued to enhance their macroprudential frameworks and toolkits to limit systemic financial sector risks. Although there is some evidence of macroprudential tools being adjusted in a countercyclical way, most of the tools have not been adjusted over the financial cycle. Further enhancements to the GCC macroprudential framework are needed to support the countercyclical use of these policies. A comprehensive and established framework, supported by strong institutional capacity, is essential for countercyclical macroprudential policies. This framework should provide clear assignment of responsibilities and guidance on how policies will be implemented to maintain financial stability and manage systemic risks over the financial cycle. Addressing data gaps and the further development of reliable early warning indicators in signaling potential systemic stress are needed to help guide the countercyclical use of a broad set of macroprudential policies. Expanding the countercyclical policy toolkit and its coverage can help address emerging financial sector risks. The implementation of countercyclical capital buffers and dynamic loan loss provisions could boost resilience in line with systemic risks faced in GCC economies. At the same time, using existing macroprudential policies countercyclically would prove useful to address emerging financial sector risks in a more targeted way. Expanding the coverage of macroprudential tools to nonbanks can help boost effectiveness by reducing leakages.
Keywords:
PP; oil price; GCC country; GCC bank; GCC economy; GCC business cycle; financial system; Oil prices; Macroprudential policy; Macroprudential policy instruments; Financial sector risk; Nonperforming loans; Global
Cover The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf
The Macroeconomics of the Arab States of the Gulf
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
,
Ms. Ghada Fayad
, and
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad

Abstract

The economies of the Arab states of the Gulf have gone through considerable changes in the last decade, spurred by high oil prices and ambitious diversification plans. Large-scale immigration provided the labor force while capital inflows and financial development leveraged oil wealth to finance diversification. The collapse in real estate prices around the world followed by the global crisis slowed growth and raised questions on the appropriateness of what has been dubbed the "GCC model." The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have thus far managed to leverage their large natural resource wealth to achieve economic prosperity and finance social advances, and the region also emerged as an important source of funds for the other countries in the Middle East. Nevertheless, the GCC face several challenges. Productivity growth must increase to fully reap the benefits of investment. Jobs must be created for the nationals and the growing youth population. State intervention (which is prevalent, given that oil revenues accrue to the government) must become efficient and be used to diversify and modernize the economy. In addition, the recent crisis highlighted the importance of fiscal, monetary, and financial stability policies to manage macroeconomic cycles. This book analyses these issues and combines data and econometric analysis with theoretical discussions. It concludes with a discussion of the importance of the GCC for the wider region.

Keywords:
BOOK; GCC country; bank; GCC economy; oil price; remittance outflow; GCC bank; Oil prices; Commercial banks; Nonperforming loans; Total factor productivity; Global; Europe; South Asia; East Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; private-sector wage; Migration; Middle East
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund
The already sluggish global recovery has suffered new setbacks and uncertainty weighs heavily on prospects. The euro area crisis intensified in the first half of 2012 and growth has slowed across the globe, reflecting financial market tensions, extensive fiscal tightening in many countries, and high uncertainty about medium-term prospects. Activity is forecast to remain tepid and bumpy, with a further escalation of the euro-area crisis or a failure to avoid the “fiscal cliff” in the United States entailing significant downside risk.
Keywords:
PP; GCC country; oil price; GCC economy; GCC government; nominal GDP; monetary policy; Oil prices; Foreign banks; Fiscal stance; Foreign currency exposure; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Nonperforming Loans in the GCC Banking System and their Macroeconomic Effects
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
and
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
According to a dynamic panel estimated over 1995 - 2008 on around 80 banks in the GCC region, the NPL ratio worsens as economic growth becomes lower and interest rates and risk aversion increase. Our model implies that the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks over a three year horizon is indeed large. Firm-specific factors related to risk-taking and efficiency are also related to future NPLs. The paper finally investigates the feedback effect of increasing NPLs on growth using a VAR model. According to the panel VAR, there could be a strong, albeit short-lived feedback effect from losses in banks’ balance sheets on economic activity, with a semi-elasticity of around 0.4.
Keywords:
WP; bank; interest rate; NPL ratio; loan; GCC country; NPLs; macro-financial linkages; Gulf Cooperation Council; Stress-testing; banking system; GCC economy; bank Muscat SAOG; feedback effect; banks in the Gulf Cooperative Council; GCC countries data; balance sheet constraint; GCC region; Nonperforming loans; Credit; Commercial banks; Credit risk; Loans; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Challenges Ahead: An Update
Ms. May Y Khamis
and
Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji
Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; GCC; GCC country; asset; debt; financing; GCC policymaker; GCC corporate; GCC government; GCC market; GCC sovereign; Credit; Credit default swap; Bank credit; Stock markets; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries and Challenges Ahead.
Ms. May Y Khamis
,
Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji
,
Mr. Gabriel Sensenbrenner
,
Mr. Francis Y Kumah
,
Maher Hasan
, and
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
This paper focuses on impact of the global financial crisis on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries and challenges ahead. The oil price boom led to large fiscal and external balance surpluses in the GCC countries. However, it also generated domestic imbalances that began to unravel with the onset of the global credit squeeze. As the global deleveraging process took hold, and oil prices and production fell, the GCC’s external and fiscal surpluses declined markedly, stock and real estate markets plunged, credit default swap spreads on sovereign debt widened, and external funding for the financial and corporate sectors tightened. In order to offset the shocks brought on by the crisis, governments—buttressed by strong international reserve positions—maintained high levels of spending and introduced exceptional financial measures, including capital and liquidity injections. The immediate priority is to complete the clean-up of bank balance sheets and the restructuring of the nonbanking sector in some countries. Clear communication by the authorities would help implementation, ease investor uncertainty, and reduce speculation and market volatility.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; banking sector; GCC country; credit bureau; GCC bank; investment funds; economic activity; U.S. dollar; Commercial banks; Credit; Islamic banking; Stock markets; Liquidity; Global; Middle East; North Africa; South Asia