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Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

You are looking at 1 - 4 of 4 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures; Other Public Investment and Capital Stock x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Adjustment in the Gulf Countries: Less Costly than Previously Thought
Mr. Armand P Fouejieu
,
Mr. Sergio L. Rodriguez
, and
Mr. Sohaib Shahid
This paper estimates fiscal multipliers for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Using OLS panel fixed effects on a sample of six countries from 1990-2016, results indicate that GCC fiscal multipliers have declined in recent years which would make the on-going fiscal consolidation less costly than previously thought. Though both capital and current multipliers have declined in recent years, capital multipliers are larger than current multipliers, which implies that reducing (less productive) current spending will help limit the adverse impact of such measures on growth.
Keywords:
WP; government spending; GDP; multiplier; Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Multiplier; GCC; oil GDP; GCC country; spending multiplier; tourism expenditure; spending growth; Capital spending; Current spending; Fiscal multipliers; Fiscal consolidation; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: How Can Growth-Friendlier Expenditure-Based Fiscal Adjustment be Achieved in the GCC?
International Monetary Fund
growth in expenditure, GCC governments have started to implement significant fiscal consolidation measures, but more needs to be done. Rapid population growth and booming oil revenues led to large increases in government spending in the GCC in the decade to 2014, which now stands high by international standards. This expenditure is dominated by compensation of employees and other current spending which are large in percent of GDP compared to Emerging Market (EM) countries and other oil exporters. This keeps overall spending above levels consistent with long-term fiscal sustainability and intergenerational equity. The international experience with large fiscal adjustments provides some key lessons for GCC countries. This experience suggests that growth outcomes improve when fiscal adjustments are sustained as part of credible multi-year fiscal plans, rely on expenditure more than revenue adjustment, and lead to improvements in expenditure composition (away from current outlays to more productive spending) and the structure of revenue (away from direct to indirect taxation). Successful fiscal adjustments also tend to be part of wider structural reforms that support growth.
Keywords:
PP; GCC country; government spending; GCC government; wage bill; expenditure adjustment; GCC experience; reform agenda; labor market; Oil prices; Fiscal consolidation; Capital spending; Current spending; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Desynchronized: The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC
Mr. Serhan Cevik
This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald asymmetric band-pass filter and a mean corrected concordance index, the paper identifies the degree of non-hydrocarbon business cycle synchronization?one of the main prerequisites for countries considering to establish a monetary union. The empirical results show low and heterogeneous synchronization in non-hydrocarbon business cycles across the GCC economies, and a decline in the degree of synchronicity in the 2000s, if Kuwait is excluded from the sample, partly because of divergent fiscal policies.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; aggregate demand; Business cycles; business cycle synchronization; band-pass filter; concordance; GCC economy; Non-hydrocarbon business cycle frequency; business cycle analysis; pairwise correlation coefficients; business cycle desynchronization; Monetary unions; Private consumption; Government consumption; Public investment spending; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Expenditure Policy and Non-Oil Economic Growth: Evidence from GCC Countries
Mr. Qing Wang
and
Mr. Ugo Fasano-Filho
Through the use of a multivariate cointegration and error-correction model, this study investigates the short- and long-run relationship over the past two decades between fiscal expenditure policy and non?oil real GDP growth in member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Despite the important role of the government, the empirical results do not strongly support that increases in fiscal expenditures tend to slow or accelerate non?oil real growth in these countries. However, the breakdown into current and capital expenditures is useful for assessing the effects of each spending category on short- and long-run non?oil real GDP growth.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; government expenditure; fiscal policy; non-oil real growth; GCC countries; GCC government; government policy; government saving; government capital; government size; GCC countries in the sample; Current spending; Capital spending; Total expenditures; Oil prices; Global