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Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Saudi’s Growth and Financial Spillovers to Other GCC Countries: An Empirical Analysis
Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji
,
Mr. Sohaib Shahid
, and
Ling Zhu
This paper examines real and financial linkages between Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries. Growth spillovers from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain are found to be sizeable and statistically significant, but those to other GCC countries are not found to be significant. Equity market movements in Saudi Arabia are found to have significant implications for other GCC countries, while there is no evidence of co-movements in bonds markets. These findings suggest some degree of interdependence among GCC countries.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; GCC sovereign bond market spillover; Growth; Gulf Corporation Council; Spillovers; growth shock; equity market movement; GCC bond spread; GCC equity; Stock markets; Yield curve; Sovereign bonds; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Desynchronized: The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC
Mr. Serhan Cevik
This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald asymmetric band-pass filter and a mean corrected concordance index, the paper identifies the degree of non-hydrocarbon business cycle synchronization?one of the main prerequisites for countries considering to establish a monetary union. The empirical results show low and heterogeneous synchronization in non-hydrocarbon business cycles across the GCC economies, and a decline in the degree of synchronicity in the 2000s, if Kuwait is excluded from the sample, partly because of divergent fiscal policies.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; aggregate demand; Business cycles; business cycle synchronization; band-pass filter; concordance; GCC economy; Non-hydrocarbon business cycle frequency; business cycle analysis; pairwise correlation coefficients; business cycle desynchronization; Monetary unions; Private consumption; Government consumption; Public investment spending; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global and Regional Spillovers to GCC Equity Markets
Tahsin Saadi Sedik
and
Mr. Oral Williams
This paper analyzes the impact of global and regional spillovers to GCC equity markets. GCC equity markets were impacted by spillovers from U.S. equity markets despite varying degrees of foreign participation. Spillovers from regional equity markets were also important but the magnitude of the effects were on average smaller than that from mature markets. The results also illustrated episodes of contagion in particular during the recent global financial crisis. The findings suggest that given the degree of openness, and open capital accounts the financial channel is an important source through which volatility is transmitted. In this regard, GCC equity markets are not immune from global and regional financial shocks. These findings refute the notion of decoupling between the GCC equity and global equity markets.
Keywords:
WP; GCC equity markets; GCC; Stock markets; spillovers; contagion; financial integration; GCC market; GCC Index; GCC economy; country stock exchanges; country j equity market; response to a rise; Oil prices; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Market capitalization; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Inflation in GCC
Ms. Magda E. Kandil
and
Mrs. Hanan Morsy
Inflationary pressures have heightened in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since 2003. This paper studies determinants of inflation in GCC, using an empirical model that includes domestic and external factors. Inflation in major trading partners appears to be the most relevant foreign factor. In addition, oil revenues have reinforced inflationary pressures through growth of credit and aggregate spending. In the short-run, binding capacity constraints also explain higher inflation given increased government spending. Nonetheless, by targeting supply-side bottlenecks, the increase in government spending is easing capacity constraints and will ultimately help to moderate price inflation.
Keywords:
WP; price inflation; price; exchange rate; Inflation; external shocks; domestic policies; exchange rate pass-through; GCC country; exchange rate depreciation; inflation in trading partners; excess demand; determinants of inflation; inflation in GCC; Exchange rate adjustments; Exchange rates; Capacity utilization
Cover IMF Working Papers
The GCC Monetary Union: Some Considerations for the Exchange Rate Regime
Mr. Behrouz Guerami
,
Mr. S. Nuri Erbas
, and
Mr. George T. Abed
We compare the dollar peg to a dollar-euro basket peg as alternative exchange rate regimes for the incipient Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) currency union. Quantitative evidence suggests basket peg does not dominate dollar peg for improving external stability. However, as GCC exports and external financial assets become more diversified, a more flexible exchange policy may be necessary for competitiveness and stability. Pegging the prospective common GCC currency to a basket, like the dollar-euro basket, may provide a conservative transitional strategy toward a more flexible exchange rate policy.
Keywords:
WP; dollar; export; currency; euro; exchange rate pegging; dollar peg; basket peg; GCC currency; GCC country; GCC export; GCC monetary union; GCC trade account; oil export; Conventional peg; Exchange rates; Exchange rate arrangements; Currencies; Exchange rate flexibility; Europe