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Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

You are looking at 1 - 5 of 5 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth x
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Cover Policy Papers
Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries - 2021
International Monetary Fund
GCC policymakers moved quickly to mitigate the health and economic impacts of twin COVID-19 and oil price shocks. Infection rates have declined across the GCC to well below previous peaks, though countries have experienced successive waves of the virus, and economic recoveries have begun to take hold. Nevertheless, GCC policymakers must navigate a challenging and uncertain landscape. The pandemic continues to cloud the global outlook as countries are in different phases of recovery, with varied growth prospects and policy space
Keywords:
oil market development; oil growth; oil balance; climate change impact; GCC economy; Oil prices; COVID-19; Oil consumption; Climate change; Global; Fiscal stance
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Energy Price Reforms in the GCC—What Can Be Learned From International Experiences?
International Monetary Fund
Energy prices in the GCC countries are low by international standards. These low prices have co-existed with rapid economic development in the region over the past 50 years, but the costs of this policy have also risen in terms of very high energy usage per capita. Providing energy at low prices has also effectively absorbed resources that could otherwise have been invested in human and physical capital or saved for future generations. The implicit cost of low energy prices in the GCC, in terms of foregone revenue, is estimated to be around 5 percent of GDP (about 8 percent of non-oil GDP) this year. GCC countries have been embarking on energy price reform in recent years. The recent decision of the UAE to remove fuel subsidies is an important initiative. Nevertheless, energy prices are generally still below international levels and differ substantially across the GCC countries. In most countries, further steps are needed to raise energy prices to reduce the growth in energy consumption and to support the fiscal adjustment that is necessary in the current lower oil price environment. Evidence in this paper suggests the inflationary impact of higher energy prices in the GCC is likely to be small, and while there may be some adverse effect on growth in the near-term, over the longer-term the growth benefits should be positive. Given the low weight of energy products in the CPI, first round effects of higher energy prices should be limited, while well anchored inflation expectations should help prevent second-round effects. On growth, a gradual increase in energy prices should have a manageable impact on industrial activity, although energy intensive industries will be adversely affected and will need to adjust. In the longer-term energy price reforms could generate significant permanent real income gains for the economy as a whole. More broadly, international experiences suggest that the likelihood of success with energy price reforms increases if the reforms are
Keywords:
PP; price; opportunity cost; firm; estimate; sales; energy price; GCC country; stock price change; price mechanism; price shock; mechanism implementation; natural gas; fuel price; natural gas price; gap approach; price benchmark; oil price environment; Energy prices; Fuel prices; Inflation; Price adjustments; Consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Desynchronized: The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC
Mr. Serhan Cevik
This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald asymmetric band-pass filter and a mean corrected concordance index, the paper identifies the degree of non-hydrocarbon business cycle synchronization?one of the main prerequisites for countries considering to establish a monetary union. The empirical results show low and heterogeneous synchronization in non-hydrocarbon business cycles across the GCC economies, and a decline in the degree of synchronicity in the 2000s, if Kuwait is excluded from the sample, partly because of divergent fiscal policies.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; aggregate demand; Business cycles; business cycle synchronization; band-pass filter; concordance; GCC economy; Non-hydrocarbon business cycle frequency; business cycle analysis; pairwise correlation coefficients; business cycle desynchronization; Monetary unions; Private consumption; Government consumption; Public investment spending; Asia and Pacific; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council Countries (GCC): Enhancing Economic Outcomes in an Uncertain Global Economy
Samya Beidas-Strom
,
Mr. Tobias N. Rasmussen
, and
Mr. David Robinson
Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; GCC country; real GDP; financial crisis; monetary policy; fiscal policy; Consumption; Oil prices; Credit default swap; Employment; Global; Asia and Pacific; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Housing Cycle in Emerging Middle Eastern Economies and its Macroeconomic Policy Implications
Samya Beidas-Strom
,
Weicheng Lian
, and
Ashwaq Maseeh
This paper examines housing finance and housing price dynamics in selected emerging Middle Eastern economies over the past two decades. It finds that (i) mortgage markets have experienced rapid development, which has led to lower private per capita consumer spending volatility this decade; (ii) a downward price correction occurred in the housing market after 2007, which appears to have bottomed out; (iii) the rental market appears to be largely determined by region-specific economic fundamentals-a youthful working-age population and wealth variables; and (iv) a segregation between self-owned house and rental price dynamics exists in this region, rendering the former more sensitive to the business cycle.
Keywords:
WP; price dynamics; rental price; determination mechanism; house price; housing price volatility