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Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

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Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
Keywords:
economic diversification; financial stability; fiscal sustainability; GCC; productivity improvements; regional integration; GCC country; policy priority; B. GCC; GCC well; GCC public sector balance sheet; Labor markets; Fiscal rules; Total factor productivity; Global; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Lifting productivity in Oman: The Role of Structural Reforms
Muayad Ismail
and
Haytem Troug
Oman’s potential nonhydrocarbon real GDP growth has trended downward since the global financial crisis, with a negative contribution from total factor productivity. This paper estimates productivity gains associated with structural reforms and identifies key binding constraints and reform priorities to boost productivity in Oman. Our results show that reforms to reduce the state’s footprint and strengthen institutions, as well as product market reforms, should be prioritized and packaged together to magnify productivity gains from labor market and financial sector reforms. These findings could inform the planning and implementation of the ongoing structural reform agenda envisaged under Oman Vision 2040.
Keywords:
Economic diversification; productivity; Oman; structural reforms; productivity gain; Lifting productivity; hydrocarbon real GDP growth; reform priority; product market reform; Commodity markets; Labor markets; Total factor productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Saudi’s Growth and Financial Spillovers to Other GCC Countries: An Empirical Analysis
Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji
,
Mr. Sohaib Shahid
, and
Ling Zhu
This paper examines real and financial linkages between Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries. Growth spillovers from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain are found to be sizeable and statistically significant, but those to other GCC countries are not found to be significant. Equity market movements in Saudi Arabia are found to have significant implications for other GCC countries, while there is no evidence of co-movements in bonds markets. These findings suggest some degree of interdependence among GCC countries.
Keywords:
WP; GCC country; GCC sovereign bond market spillover; Growth; Gulf Corporation Council; Spillovers; growth shock; equity market movement; GCC bond spread; GCC equity; Stock markets; Yield curve; Sovereign bonds; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Global and Regional Spillovers to GCC Equity Markets
Tahsin Saadi Sedik
and
Mr. Oral Williams
This paper analyzes the impact of global and regional spillovers to GCC equity markets. GCC equity markets were impacted by spillovers from U.S. equity markets despite varying degrees of foreign participation. Spillovers from regional equity markets were also important but the magnitude of the effects were on average smaller than that from mature markets. The results also illustrated episodes of contagion in particular during the recent global financial crisis. The findings suggest that given the degree of openness, and open capital accounts the financial channel is an important source through which volatility is transmitted. In this regard, GCC equity markets are not immune from global and regional financial shocks. These findings refute the notion of decoupling between the GCC equity and global equity markets.
Keywords:
WP; GCC equity markets; GCC; Stock markets; spillovers; contagion; financial integration; GCC market; GCC Index; GCC economy; country stock exchanges; country j equity market; response to a rise; Oil prices; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Market capitalization; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Intra-Industry Trade of Arab Countries: An Indicator of Potential Competitiveness
Mr. Peter J Kunzel
and
Mr. Oleh Havrylyshyn
Recent and ongoing agreements to liberalize trade between the European Union (EU) and Arab countries raises the question as to how the latter will fare in a more competitive environment. This paper uses the Grubel-Lloyd intra-industry trade (IIT) index as an indicator of the degree of industrial specialization to study Arab countries’ ability to compete in a more open trade setting. It concludes that whereas increased specialization has been achieved over the last decade in Arab countries, IIT remains low not only in absolute terms, but even in a cross-country comparison, when normalized for the level of development.
Keywords:
WP; IIT level; IIT index; IIT determinant; industry trade; IIT indices; IIT regression; Exports; Trade liberalization; Manufacturing; Trade balance; Personal income; Global; Western Hemisphere