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Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

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Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
Keywords:
economic diversification; financial stability; fiscal sustainability; GCC; productivity improvements; regional integration; GCC country; policy priority; B. GCC; GCC well; GCC public sector balance sheet; Labor markets; Fiscal rules; Total factor productivity; Global; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Lifting productivity in Oman: The Role of Structural Reforms
Muayad Ismail
and
Haytem Troug
Oman’s potential nonhydrocarbon real GDP growth has trended downward since the global financial crisis, with a negative contribution from total factor productivity. This paper estimates productivity gains associated with structural reforms and identifies key binding constraints and reform priorities to boost productivity in Oman. Our results show that reforms to reduce the state’s footprint and strengthen institutions, as well as product market reforms, should be prioritized and packaged together to magnify productivity gains from labor market and financial sector reforms. These findings could inform the planning and implementation of the ongoing structural reform agenda envisaged under Oman Vision 2040.
Keywords:
Economic diversification; productivity; Oman; structural reforms; productivity gain; Lifting productivity; hydrocarbon real GDP growth; reform priority; product market reform; Commodity markets; Labor markets; Total factor productivity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper revisits the exposure of Oman’s fiscal position to an array of potential risks, zooming in on the impact of oil price volatility and potential risks stemming from state-owned enterprises. It documents actions taken by Omani policymakers to mitigate the impact of fiscal risks and provides further recommendations on fiscal risk disclosure and management. Better understanding of fiscal risks, combined with their transparent reporting and effective risk management underpin fiscal credibility and the sustainability of public finances. The annual budget can disclose guarantees, related beneficiaries, the expected duration, and the intended purpose. It is essential to identify and disclose the main fiscal risks from climate-related events and Oman’s climate agenda, both in qualitative and quantitative terms. Effective fiscal policymaking and fiscal risk management require appropriate coordination of decision making between central government and other parts of the public sector.
Keywords:
government bond bond market; government bond market in Oman; productivity gain; Passthrough regression; Fed policy rate hike; banking sector overview; banking sector concentration; Fiscal risks; Securities markets; Financial sector development; Capital markets; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
سلطنة عمان - قضايا مختارة: إدارة الشرق الأوسط
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper revisits the exposure of Oman’s fiscal position to an array of potential risks, zooming in on the impact of oil price volatility and potential risks stemming from state-owned enterprises. It documents actions taken by Omani policymakers to mitigate the impact of fiscal risks and provides further recommendations on fiscal risk disclosure and management. Better understanding of fiscal risks, combined with their transparent reporting and effective risk management underpin fiscal credibility and the sustainability of public finances. The annual budget can disclose guarantees, related beneficiaries, the expected duration, and the intended purpose. It is essential to identify and disclose the main fiscal risks from climate-related events and Oman’s climate agenda, both in qualitative and quantitative terms. Effective fiscal policymaking and fiscal risk management require appropriate coordination of decision making between central government and other parts of the public sector.
Keywords:
government bond bond market; government bond market in Oman; productivity gain; Passthrough regression; Fed policy rate hike; banking sector overview; banking sector concentration; Fiscal risks; Securities markets; Financial sector development; Capital markets; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation-at-Risk in in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Romain Lafarguette
, and
Kubi Johnson
This paper investigates inflation risks for 12 Middle East and Central Asia countries, with an equal share of commodities exporters and importers. The empirical strategy leverages the recent developments in the estimation of macroeconomic risks and uses a semi-parametric approach that balances well flexibility and robustness for density projections. The paper uncovers interesting features of inflation dynamics in the region, including the role of backward versus forward-looking drivers, non-linearities, and heterogeneous and delayed exchange rate pass-through. The results have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy and central bank communication in the Middle East and Central Asia and emerging markets in general.
Keywords:
Emerging markets; inflation; inflation expectations; Phillips Curve; monetary policy; central bank communication; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; inflation expectation; inflation risk; self-reinforcing inflation dynamics; baseline inflation forecast; fan chart; Commodity prices; Output gap; Exchange rates; Consumer price indexes; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Inflation in GCC
Ms. Magda E. Kandil
and
Mrs. Hanan Morsy
Inflationary pressures have heightened in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since 2003. This paper studies determinants of inflation in GCC, using an empirical model that includes domestic and external factors. Inflation in major trading partners appears to be the most relevant foreign factor. In addition, oil revenues have reinforced inflationary pressures through growth of credit and aggregate spending. In the short-run, binding capacity constraints also explain higher inflation given increased government spending. Nonetheless, by targeting supply-side bottlenecks, the increase in government spending is easing capacity constraints and will ultimately help to moderate price inflation.
Keywords:
WP; price inflation; price; exchange rate; Inflation; external shocks; domestic policies; exchange rate pass-through; GCC country; exchange rate depreciation; inflation in trading partners; excess demand; determinants of inflation; inflation in GCC; Exchange rate adjustments; Exchange rates; Capacity utilization