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Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) discusses economic prospects and policy priorities for the GCC countries. A comprehensive package of policies should be implemented to respond to near-term shocks and uncertainty and to firmly address medium- and long-term challenges. In the near term, fiscal policy should remain prudent, avoiding procyclical spending and using the windfall from higher oil prices to rebuild buffers. Targeted and temporary fiscal measures could be undertaken to respond to shocks, if they materialize. In the medium term, GCC countries should continue pursuing fiscal consolidation consistent with ensuring intergenerational equity and sustainability, supported by a credible rules-based medium-term fiscal framework. Continued financial sector reforms are needed to support growth and stability. Structural policies should continue focusing on diversifying the economies away from hydrocarbon. Reform efforts aimed at further enhancing product market regulations, labor markets, and governance will spur growth, as will efficient investments in digital and green initiatives to accelerate transformation and support energy transition. The industrial policy should be carefully calibrated and not substitute for structural reforms while minimizing related inefficiencies.
Keywords:
Gulf Cooperation Council; GCC Countries; OPEC; GCC country; centrality indices; policies in the GCC; GCC net; GCC's acceleration; financial market; Inflation; Oil prices; Climate finance; Financial statements; Global; Middle East
Cover Policy Papers
Resilience and Sustainability Trust – 2023 Contribution Agreements with Italy, Luxembourg, Oman, and the United Kingdom
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents Resilience and Sustainability (RST) contribution agreements finalized with four contributors between April 2023 and September 15, 2023. The concluded agreements provide for contributions in a total amount of about SDR 4.7 billion across the three RST accounts – the loan account, deposit account, and reserve account. The new agreements with four members add critical resources that support the continued smooth operations of the RST.
Keywords:
Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST); Contribution agreements; Resource adequacy; Funding; Contributions; transparency policy; contribution agreement; deposit account claim; SDR equivalent; reserve account contribution; Loans; SDR interest rate
Cover Policy Papers
Annual Update on SDR Trading Operations
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper provides an update on the status of the SDR trading market and operations. For more than three decades, SDRs have exclusively been exchanged for freely usable currencies in transactions by agreement, primarily through the Voluntary Trading Arrangements (VTAs). Since the last annual update, SDR trading has continued to be dominated by SDR sales, although SDR acquisitions have increased significantly. From September 2022 to August 2023, SDR 17.9 billion were sold through the VTA market, of which SDR 8.9 billion were exchanged by 29 participants into currencies and SDR 8.0 billion were sold by the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) for liquidity management and to facilitate the investment of SDR contributions. On the purchase side, the volume and number of transactions increased from the previous year as more participants needed to replenish their SDR holdings to cover charges to the IMF, reflecting the rising SDR interest rate. The VTAs continue to have ample capacities to meet the demand for exchange of SDRs into currencies.
Keywords:
SDR trading capacity; SDR sale; SDR department participant; VTA market; IMF-administered trust; SDR trade; Currencies; Liquidity; Trading arrangements; Freely usable currencies; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
GCC policymakers have managed to quickly mitigate the economic impact of the twin COVID-19 and oil price shock. Commodity prices have surged, and the outlook is more positive for GCC countries, with new challenges linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tighter global financial conditions expected to have a limited impact on GCC economies. While GCC countries have overall benefited from higher, albeit volatile hydrocarbon prices, numerous risks still cloud the outlook—notably a slowdown in the global economy. In this context, the reform momentum established during the low oil price years should be maintained—irrespective of the level of hydrocarbon prices.
Keywords:
inflation dynamics; diversification Index; food CPI weight; Oil prices; Financial conditions index; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
GCC policymakers have managed to quickly mitigate the economic impact of the twin COVID-19 and oil price shock. Commodity prices have surged, and the outlook is more positive for GCC countries, with new challenges linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and tighter global financial conditions expected to have a limited impact on GCC economies. While GCC countries have overall benefited from higher, albeit volatile hydrocarbon prices, numerous risks still cloud the outlook—notably a slowdown in the global economy. In this context, the reform momentum established during the low oil price years should be maintained—irrespective of the level of hydrocarbon prices.
Cover Policy Papers
Annual Update on SDR Trading Operations
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper provides an update on the status of the SDR trading market and operations one year after the historic fourth general allocation of SDRs. In the reporting period, SDR trading has been dominated by SDR sales due to the 2021 SDR allocation. The VTAs continue to have ample capacities to meet the demand for exchange of SDRs into currencies. Staff has made significant progress in further strengthening the SDR trading market. Since the SDR allocation, eight new VTA members have been welcomed to the SDR trading market and many existing VTA members provided additional operational flexibilities. Discussions with a number of potential new entrants continue in the broader context of SDR channeling, which encourages contributors to have VTAs.
Keywords:
SDR sale; SDR trading market; SDR trading capacity; SDR amount; SDR market; VTA member; Trading arrangements; Freely usable currencies; Currencies; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Policy Papers
Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries - 2021
International Monetary Fund
GCC policymakers moved quickly to mitigate the health and economic impacts of twin COVID-19 and oil price shocks. Infection rates have declined across the GCC to well below previous peaks, though countries have experienced successive waves of the virus, and economic recoveries have begun to take hold. Nevertheless, GCC policymakers must navigate a challenging and uncertain landscape. The pandemic continues to cloud the global outlook as countries are in different phases of recovery, with varied growth prospects and policy space
Keywords:
oil market development; oil growth; oil balance; climate change impact; GCC economy; Oil prices; COVID-19; Oil consumption; Climate change; Global; Fiscal stance
Cover IMF Working Papers
Measuring Concentration Risk - A Partial Portfolio Approach
Pierpaolo Grippa
and
Lucyna Gornicka
Concentration risk is an important feature of many banking sectors, especially in emerging and small economies. Under the Basel Framework, Pillar 1 capital requirements for credit risk do not cover concentration risk, and those calculated under the Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approach explicitly exclude it. Banks are expected to compensate for this by autonomously estimating and setting aside appropriate capital buffers, which supervisors are required to assess and possibly challenge within the Pillar 2 process. Inadequate reflection of this risk can lead to insufficient capital levels even when the capital ratios seem high. We propose a flexible technique, based on a combination of “full” credit portfolio modeling and asymptotic results, to calculate capital requirements for name and sector concentration risk in banks’ portfolios. The proposed approach lends itself to be used in bilateral surveillance, as a potential area for technical assistance on banking supervision, and as a policy tool to gauge the degree of concentration risk in different banking systems.
Keywords:
WP; risk factor; concentration risk; Basel capital requirements; Pillar 2; Credit VaR; capital charge; bank portfolio; asset correlation; Basel capital framework; requirement formula; Credit risk; Credit; Asset valuation; Basel II; Vector autoregression; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: Report on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module Volume I
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This paper discusses the findings and recommendations of the Report on Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module for Oman. It is observed that Oman has made significant progress in the compilation and dissemination of macroeconomic statistics since the 2004 ROSC mission. The main progress has been achieved in monetary statistics, price indices, and balance of payments, in particular the introduction of the producer price index, and improvements in data relevance, transparency, classification, and sectorization. The report also recognizes the need for Oman to move to higher data standards and identifies shortcomings in statistical practices and products that remain to be addressed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; NCSI website ASAP.; time series; statistics; customs data; NCSI website; balance of payments; volume II; quarterly time series; Monetary statistics; Government finance statistics; Balance of payments statistics; Financial statements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Transmission in the GCC Countries
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
and
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
The GCC countries maintain a policy of open capital accounts and a pegged (or nearly-pegged) exchange rate, thereby reducing their freedom to run an independent monetary policy. This paper shows, however, that the pass-through of policy rates to retail rates is on the low side, reflecting the shallowness of money markets and the manner in which GCC central banks operate. In addition to policy rates, the GCC monetary authorities use reserve requirements, loan-to-deposit ratios, and other macroprudential tools to affect liquidity and credit. Nonetheless, a panel vector auto regression model suggests that U.S. monetary policy has a strong and statistically significant impact on broad money, non-oil activity, and inflation in the GCC region. Unanticipated shocks to broad money also affect prices but do not stimulate growth. Continued efforts to develop the domestic financial markets will increase interest rate pass-through and strengthen monetary policy transmission.
Keywords:
WP; rate; monetary policy; GCC Y; lending rate; Transmission mechanism; Fixed exchange rate regime; interest rate pass-through; panel VAR; interbank rate; monetary policy shock; deposit rate; fed funds rate; Interbank rates; Deposit rates; Vector autoregression; Central bank policy rate; Interest rate ceilings; Global