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Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Commodity Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes: Implications for the Caribbean Commodity Exporters
Mr. Ali J Al-Sadiq
and
Ms. Inci Ötker
Declining commodity prices during mid-2014-2016 posed significant challenges to commodity-exporting economies. The severe terms of trade shock associated with a sharp fall in world commodity prices have raised anew questions about the viability of pegged exchange rate regimes. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures needed to contain its spread have been associated with a significant disruption in several economic sectors, in particular, travel, tourism, and hospitality industry, adding to the downward pressure on commodity prices, a sharp fall in foreign exchange earnings, and depressed economic activity in most commodity exporters. This paper reviews country experiences with different exchange rate regimes in coping with commodity price shocks and explores the role of flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber, analyzing the macroeconomic impact of adverse term-of-trade shocks under different regimes using event study and panel vector autoregression techniques. It also analyzes, conceptually and empirically, policy and technical considerations in making exchange rate regime choices and discusses the supporting policies that should accompany a given regime choice to make that choice sustainable. It offers lessons that could be helpful to the Caribbean commodity-exporters.
Keywords:
commodity shock; commodity exporter; regime choice; Caribbean commodity-exporter; I. commodity terms-of-trade Index; Exchange rate arrangements; Exchange rate flexibility; Exchange rates; Exchange rate adjustments; Caribbean; Global; Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic is having far-reaching consequences for the global economy. Measures to contain the spread of the virus have led to sharp declines in economic activity across the globe, particularly in 2020Q2. The hardest hit sectors have been those requiring intensive human contact, such as tourism, transportation, services, and construction, while, in general, IT-intensive activities have fared better. The economic contraction is most significant in advanced economies. The GCC countries face a double impact from the coronavirus and lower oil prices. GCC authorities have implemented a range of appropriate measures to mitigate the economic damage, including fiscal packages, relaxation of monetary and macroprudential rules, and the injection of liquidity into the banking system, and there are recent signs of improvement. Low oil prices have caused a sharp deterioration of external and fiscal balances, and fiscal strains are evident in countries with higher debt levels.
Keywords:
PP; GCC country; IMF staff calculation; GCC authorities; labor market; GCC economy; GCC inflation; central bank; COVID-19; Oil prices; Fiscal consolidation; Oil; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Oil Prices and GCC Stock Markets: New Evidence from Smooth Transition Models
Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh
,
Samy Ben Naceur
,
Mr. Oussama Kanaan
, and
Christophe Rault
Our paper examines the effect of oil price changes on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets using nonlinear smooth transition regression (STR) models. Contrary to conventional wisdom, our empirical results reveal that GCC stock markets do not have similar sensitivities to oil price changes. We document the presence of stock market returns’ asymmetric reactions in some GCC countries, but not for others. In Kuwait’s case, negative oil price changes exert larger impacts on stock returns than positive oil price changes. When considering the asymmetry with respect to the magnitude of oil price variation, we find that Oman’s and Qatar’s stock markets are more sensitive to large oil price changes than to small ones. Our results highlight the importance of economic stabilization and reform policies that can potentially reduce the sensitivity of stock returns to oil price changes, especially with regard to the existence of asymmetric behavior.
Keywords:
WP; oil price change; GCC country; correlation coefficient; GCC stock markets; oil prices; smooth transition regression models; GCC stock price volatility; hedging strategy; Stock markets; Asset prices; Oil; Stocks; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil: Policy Adjustment in MENA and CCA Oil-Exporting Countries
Mr. Martin Sommer
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
,
Mr. Armand Fouejieu
,
Ms. Inutu Lukonga
,
Mr. Saad N Quayyum
,
Amir Sadeghi
,
Mr. Gazi H Shbaikat
,
Mr. Andrew J Tiffin
, and
Mr. Bruno Versailles
This paper discusses the challenges posed by low oil prices in the MENA and CCA regions, the adjustment policies adopted so far, and remaining adjustment needs and future risks.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; oil exporter; exporter; oil price; price; GCC; debt ratio; GCC country; CCA country; IMF staff estimate; U.S. dollar; Gulf exporter; Oil prices; Oil; Fiscal consolidation; Government debt management; Global
Cover The Middle East and North Africa in a Changing Oil Market
The Middle East and North Africa in a Changing Oil Market
Mr. Bright E Okogu

Abstract

The world oil market has undergone a series of changes that have reduced the share of oil in the global energy balance and, with it, the influence of Middle Eastern oil exporters. In spite of oil’s loss of ground, however, Middle Eastern countries remain at the center of world oil developments. This paper focuses on the developments in the international oil market, the role of Middle Eastern countries therein, and the policy challenges arising from the dependency on oil.

Keywords:
MISC PUBS; Misc.; price; Opec; market share; OPEC output; demand; OPEC grip; OPEC price-setting practice; OPEC oil quota obligation; price collapse; MENA OPEC country; quota policy; price effect; term contract; OPEC reserve; OPEC pricing approach; supply share; reference price; Oil; Oil prices; Oil sector; gas and mining taxes; Natural gas sector; Middle East; Global
Cover Yemen in the 1990s
Yemen in the 1990s
From Unification to Economic Reform
Ms. Nada Choueiri
,
Mr. Klaus-Stefan Enders
,
Mr. Yuri V Sobolev
,
Mr. Jan Walliser
, and
Mr. Sherwyn Williams

Abstract

The 1990s saw the unification of the two Yemens into one nation and a burgeoning of the country's oil sector. This paper examines the structural changes in the Yemeni economy brought about by these and other developments and identifies the reforms needed to move the country toward rapid and sustainable growth, effectively manage its oil wealth, and reduce the widespread poverty. The paper addresses the issue of poverty reduction by providing background and drawing lessons from Yemen's adjustment experience to date.

Keywords:
OP; government; Yemen; policy; pins government policy; economic reform program; adjustment experience; oil sector development; employee pension plan; benefit rule; Oil; Oil prices; Commercial banks; Middle East; East Africa; North Africa; Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 31, Issue 16
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
George T. Abed, a Palestinian and a Jordanian national, took over this summer as Director of the IMF’s Middle Eastern Department. In his distinguished 20-year career at the IMF, he has worked on the Middle East and on fiscal policy issues worldwide. Outside the IMF, he taught at the University of California, Berkeley, and managed a development assistance foundation in Geneva, Switzerland. Laura Wallace spoke with him about the region’s prospects amid political tensions and difficult economic challenges. Besides modernizing the state and liberalizing the region’s economy, he stressed the paramount importance of democracy, human development, and attention to social needs.
Keywords:
SV; bottom; IMF Treasurer's Department; IMF Concludes; growth facility; fund Facility; IMF survey; IMF purchase; Unemployment; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Oil prices; Europe; Middle East; North Africa; Western Hemisphere; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Review of the Experience with Oil Stabilization and Savings Funds in Selected Countries
Mr. Ugo Fasano-Filho
The main purposes of this paper are to review the operational modalities and experience of oil funds currently in place in Norway, Chile (copper), the State of Alaska, Venezuela, Kuwait, and Oman, and to draw some preliminary conclusions on their contribution to enhance fiscal management. The outcome so far of their experience has been mixed, with differences among countries reflecting the variety of objectives attached to the funds, the challenges in adhering to established rules, the institutional set-up. and the soundness of the overall fiscal discipline in each country (or state).
Keywords:
WP; fund; stabilization fund; fund staff estimate; savings fund; stabilization objective; oil stabilization fund; oil savings fund; oil exporting countries; Chile’s copper fund; dividend program; SGRF assets; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Oil prices; Budget planning and preparation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Azerbaijan: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper describes economic developments in the Azerbaijan Republic during the 1990s. Real GDP declined by more than 70 percent from 1992 to 1995, by which time high inflation had eroded real incomes, the exchange rate had weakened, and international reserves were nearly depleted. In early 1995, the authorities started a comprehensive stabilization program supported by the IMF’s Structural Transformation Facility. Fiscal and credit policies were tightened, while a number of structural reforms were introduced, mainly in the areas of exchange and trade liberalization.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; oil fund; broad money; fiscal policy; central bank; rate of return; economic activity; current account; foreign direct investment; Oil; Oil prices; Oil sector; gas and mining taxes; Oil production; Europe; Middle East; Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific; Baltics
Cover The Economy of the Middle East and North Africa in 1997
The Economy of the Middle East and North Africa in 1997
Mr. Mohamed A. El-Erian
and
Ms. Susan Fennell

Abstract

The economy of the Middle East and North Africa improved considerably in 1996, and remained favorable in 1997. This paper, by Mohamed A. El-Erian and Susan Fennell, presents an assessment of the recent experience of the MENA economies and examines prospects for 1998 and beyond.

Keywords:
BOOK; MENA economy; economy; GCC country; country; MENA country; economy of the Middle East and North Africa; market opening reform; wealth-enhancing effect; Oil production; Oil; Oil prices; Natural gas sector; Stock markets; Global; Maghreb; Middle East; Southeast Asia; Europe; North Africa; Asia and Pacific; East Africa