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Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Inflation in GCC
Ms. Magda E. Kandil
and
Mrs. Hanan Morsy
Inflationary pressures have heightened in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since 2003. This paper studies determinants of inflation in GCC, using an empirical model that includes domestic and external factors. Inflation in major trading partners appears to be the most relevant foreign factor. In addition, oil revenues have reinforced inflationary pressures through growth of credit and aggregate spending. In the short-run, binding capacity constraints also explain higher inflation given increased government spending. Nonetheless, by targeting supply-side bottlenecks, the increase in government spending is easing capacity constraints and will ultimately help to moderate price inflation.
Keywords:
WP; price inflation; price; exchange rate; Inflation; external shocks; domestic policies; exchange rate pass-through; GCC country; exchange rate depreciation; inflation in trading partners; excess demand; determinants of inflation; inflation in GCC; Exchange rate adjustments; Exchange rates; Capacity utilization
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries
Kamilya Tazhibayeva
,
Mr. Aasim M. Husain
, and
Anna Ter-Martirosyan
This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.
Keywords:
WP; oil price; price; output
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Arab Emirates: 2007 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Arab Emirates
International Monetary Fund
The 2007 Article IV Consultation on the United Arab Emirates (UAE) examines the near- and medium-term outlook, inflation, and fiscal policy. The rapid expansion is supported by an outward-oriented development strategy and sustained high oil prices. Reforms are under way to strengthen the prudential and regulatory oversight of the banking system and the capital markets; to open the banking sector to greater competition; and to strengthen the legal framework for the financial sector. Executive Directors agreed that the key challenges will be to ensure sustained noninflationary growth and further diversification of the economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; U.A.E.'s capital markets; staff appraisal; government; U.A.E. financial system; U.A.E. dirham; U.A.E. banking sector; U.A.E. government strategy; Commercial banks; Oil prices; Income; Foreign assets; Real effective exchange rates; Middle East; Global; East Asia; Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
GCC Monetary Union and the Degree of Macroeconomic Policy Coordination
Mr. Bassem M Kamar
and
Samy Ben Naceur
Coordinating macroeconomic policies is a pre-requisite to a successful launch of the common currency in the GCC countries. Relying on the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach as a theoretical framework, we apply the Pooled Mean Group methodology to determine the similarity of the impact of a selected set of macroeconomic indicators on the real exchange rate in each country. Our empirical evidence points to a clear coordination of monetary policy, fiscal policy, government consumption, and openness across the member countries. While RER misalignments also show a substantial convergence building over time, differences in the misalignments of the two polar cases remain rather substantial, calling for further coordination and policy harmonization.
Keywords:
WP; monetary policy; common currency
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Jordanian Stock Market—Should You Invest in It for Risk Diversification or Performance?
Mr. Martin Petri
and
Tahsin Saadi Sedik
We analyze the performance of the Amman Stock Exchange (ASE) and its integration with other markets. Using cointegration techniques, we find that the ASE and other Arab stock markets are cointegrated, which implies little long-run risk diversification. However, there is no cointegrating relationship between the ASE and other emerging or developed stock markets. Two of the main regional stock markets-Kuwait and Saudi Arabia-Grangercause the Jordanian stock market. The paper finds that there may have been some overvaluation at end-2005, but that the market correction in early 2006 and strong recent earnings growth have reduced overvaluation concerns.
Keywords:
WP; ASE index; dividend yield; U.S. dollar; price index
Cover IMF Survey
Boletín del FMI Vol.35, No.3 febrero 2006
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición del Boletín del FMI para la web se actualiza varias veces a la semana, y contiene una amplia variedad de artículos sobre temas de actualidad en materia de políticas y economía. Conozca las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche entrevistas digitales a destacados economistas del FMI sobre importantes cuestiones de la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings; special drawing rights; SDR interest rate; background color
Cover IMF Survey
Bulletin du FMI vol. 35, n° 03, février 2006
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
En mettant l’accent sur le travail du FMI et sur les grandes questions macroéconomiques et financières internationales, le Bulletin du FMI présente une analyse des développements nationaux, régionaux et mondiaux, des informations sur le travail, les politiques, les réformes et les activités d'assistance technique du FMI, les conclusions d'études de calibre mondial, des données essentielles qui ne sont souvent pas disponibles ailleurs, ainsi que des rapports sur les discussions économiques et financières au sein du FMI et ailleurs. Publié douze fois par an, ce bulletin de seize pages s'adresse à un large public : dirigeants, analystes, chercheurs, étudiants et journalistes. Disponible en anglais, français et espagnol.
Keywords:
SV; IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings; special drawing rights; SDR interest rate; background color
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 35, Issue 03
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
New IMF financial sector department; Short takes: Oman, C.A.R., Greece; Nobelist Wangari Matthai on sustainable development; Moldova and remittances; Financial globalization; VAT refunds; Emerging markets alter financial landscape.
Keywords:
SV; IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings; special drawing rights; SDR interest rate; background color; IMF-World Bank spring meeting; IMF HIPC assistance; IMF quota; IMF publication service; IMF participation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Value-added tax; Women; Remittances; Global; Middle East; Africa; Asia and Pacific; Central Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Providing official Statistics for the Common Market and Monetary Union in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries: A Case for "Gulfstat"
Abdulrahman K Al-Mansouri
and
Ms. Claudia H Dziobek
The six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE)-have laid out a path to a common market by 2007 and monetary union by 2010, based on economic convergence. To monitor convergence and support economic and monetary policy, comparable economic data for member countries and data for the region as a whole will be essential. What is the most efficient way to produce these data? The authors survey the statistical institutions in the GCC countries and present the case for creating "Gulfstat"-a regional statistical agency to operate within a "Gulf States System of Statistics." Valuable lessons can be learned from regional statistical organization in Africa and the European Union-Afristat and Eurostat.
Keywords:
WP; Eurostat; GCC country; country; process; authority; Data Quality; Regional Economic Integration; Gulf Cooperation Council; governance structure; common market; ROSC country report; GCC authorities; GCC member states; EU information requirement; Government finance statistics; Monetary unions; Data dissemination; Data collection; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) Data Module
International Monetary Fund
This report on Oman’s Observance of Standards and Codes examines Data Module, response by the authorities, and detailed assessments using the data quality assessment framework. Omani authorities have strongly committed to adhering to internationally accepted standards and good practices in statistics. The authorities have taken several important measures such as implementing the latest international statistical standards and/or moving in that direction, and participating in the General Data Dissemination System (GDDS) and regularly updating the GDDS metadata.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; information; balance of payments; ROSC report; ROSC mission; Oman; ROSC process; CBO website; market valuation; Balance of payments statistics; Government finance statistics; Monetary statistics; Commercial banks