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Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2024 Article IV Consultation highlights that supported by favorable hydrocarbon revenues and steadfast reform efforts, Oman’s economy continues to expand amidst low inflation. Fiscal and external surpluses continued in 2024 and are expected over the medium term. The banking sector remains sound. Profitability has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, capital and liquidity buffers are ample, while asset quality remains strong. Banks’ net foreign assets turned positive by end of 2023 for the first time since 2014. The authorities continue pursuing prudent fiscal management, amidst the successful rollout of the social protection law. The 2025 budget is set to preserve fiscal discipline, further lowering the nonhydrocarbon primary deficit, while maintaining spending on social safety nets broadly unchanged relative to 2024. The banking sector is sound, amidst continued efforts to strengthen regulatory and supervisory frameworks. Sustained implementation of reforms under Oman Vision 2040 will be key to achieving sustainable, job rich, and private sector-led nonhydrocarbon growth. The new social protection law has been successfully rolled out. Labor market reforms are ongoing, supported by the new labor law.
Keywords:
FSAP update mission; ROSC reassessment mission; FSAP mission; data ROSC; debt management strategy; FSAP participation; Oil prices; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Global
Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
Keywords:
economic diversification; financial stability; fiscal sustainability; GCC; productivity improvements; regional integration; GCC country; policy priority; B. GCC; GCC well; GCC public sector balance sheet; Labor markets; Fiscal rules; Total factor productivity; Global; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Mitigating Fiscal Risks in Oman
Abdullah Alhassan
and
Dalia Aita
Fiscal risks are multifaceted in Oman and their potential impact on the fiscal position could be significant. Identification, monitoring, transparent reporting, and effective risk management of fiscal risks are a key component of a sound medium-term fiscal framework and paramount in underpinning fiscal credibility and the sustainability of public finances. This note revisits the exposure of Oman’s fiscal position to an array of potential risks, zooming in on the impact of oil price volatility and potential risks stemming from state-owned enterprises. It documents actions taken by Omani policymakers to mitigate the impact of fiscal risks and provides further recommendations on fiscal risk disclosure and management.
Keywords:
Oman; Fiscal Risks; Oil Price; Transparency; oil price volatility; copyright page; impact of fiscal risk; SOEs performance; SOEs debt; budget preparation process; downside oil price scenario; SOEs governance; Oil prices; Public enterprises; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Oman
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Oman’s economic recovery continues while inflation remains contained which is supported by favorable oil prices and sustained reform momentum. The banking sector remains resilient. Profitability has recovered to prepandemic levels, capital and liquidity ratios are well above regulatory requirements, and nonperforming loans remain low and sufficiently provisioned. Stress tests suggest that banks are resilient to credit and liquidity shocks. Risks to the economic outlook are balanced. Sustaining the reform momentum under Oman Vision 2040 will be key to building resilience and boosting prospects for more inclusive, diversified, and sustainable private sector-led non-hydrocarbon growth. This requires further efforts to improve institutional quality, reduce the state footprint, and enhance the business environment, which in turn would help amplify productivity gains from labor market and financial development reforms. It also calls for the steadfast implementation of the new social protection and labor laws, leveraging digitalization, and accelerating green investments and advancing policies to meet climate commitments.
Keywords:
Omani authorities; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; article IV consultation mission; SOE divestment drive; state footprint; arrangements in Oman; Government asset and liability management; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper revisits the exposure of Oman’s fiscal position to an array of potential risks, zooming in on the impact of oil price volatility and potential risks stemming from state-owned enterprises. It documents actions taken by Omani policymakers to mitigate the impact of fiscal risks and provides further recommendations on fiscal risk disclosure and management. Better understanding of fiscal risks, combined with their transparent reporting and effective risk management underpin fiscal credibility and the sustainability of public finances. The annual budget can disclose guarantees, related beneficiaries, the expected duration, and the intended purpose. It is essential to identify and disclose the main fiscal risks from climate-related events and Oman’s climate agenda, both in qualitative and quantitative terms. Effective fiscal policymaking and fiscal risk management require appropriate coordination of decision making between central government and other parts of the public sector.
Keywords:
government bond bond market; government bond market in Oman; productivity gain; Passthrough regression; Fed policy rate hike; banking sector overview; banking sector concentration; Fiscal risks; Securities markets; Financial sector development; Capital markets; Productivity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Gulf Cooperation Council: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This paper on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) discusses economic prospects and policy priorities for the GCC countries. A comprehensive package of policies should be implemented to respond to near-term shocks and uncertainty and to firmly address medium- and long-term challenges. In the near term, fiscal policy should remain prudent, avoiding procyclical spending and using the windfall from higher oil prices to rebuild buffers. Targeted and temporary fiscal measures could be undertaken to respond to shocks, if they materialize. In the medium term, GCC countries should continue pursuing fiscal consolidation consistent with ensuring intergenerational equity and sustainability, supported by a credible rules-based medium-term fiscal framework. Continued financial sector reforms are needed to support growth and stability. Structural policies should continue focusing on diversifying the economies away from hydrocarbon. Reform efforts aimed at further enhancing product market regulations, labor markets, and governance will spur growth, as will efficient investments in digital and green initiatives to accelerate transformation and support energy transition. The industrial policy should be carefully calibrated and not substitute for structural reforms while minimizing related inefficiencies.
Keywords:
Gulf Cooperation Council; GCC Countries; OPEC; GCC country; centrality indices; policies in the GCC; GCC net; GCC's acceleration; financial market; Inflation; Oil prices; Climate finance; Financial statements; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
Non-hydrocarbon growth; net financial assets; Non-hydrocarbon sector; hydrocarbon revenue; revenue projection; Fiscal governance; Fiscal stance; Oil prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Oman: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses Oman’s strong vaccination efforts have allowed for the relaxation of all social distancing restrictions, and the economic recovery is gaining traction. Uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook, with downside risks dominating in the short run. Reinforcing fiscal sustainability over the medium term, as envisaged under the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan, requires further revenue and expenditure measures. The exchange rate peg continues to serve Oman well. Efforts to strengthen the monetary transmission mechanism and establish the treasury single account should be carefully coordinated to maintain adequate banking system liquidity. Prudential rules should be restored to pre-pandemic levels as the impact of the pandemic declines. Close monitoring of banks’ asset quality remains essential. Steadfast implementation of reforms under Vision 2040 is needed to foster strong, job-rich, private sector-led growth. This would require enhancing labor market flexibility, improving the business environment, advancing state-owned-enterprises reforms, leveraging digitalization, and tackling climate challenges.
Keywords:
IMF staff calculation; banking system liquidity; article IV consultation mission; oil price outlook; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; liquidity management framework; Fiscal consolidation; Oil prices; Fiscal stance; Global; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Mobilizing Private Climate Financing in Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Mr. Ananthakrishnan Prasad
,
Ms. Elena Loukoianova
,
Alan Xiaochen Feng
, and
William Oman
Global investment to achieve the Paris Agreement’s temperature and adaptation goals requires immediate actions—first and foremost—on climate policies. Policies should be accompanied by commensurate financing flows to close the large financing gap globally, and in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) in particular. This note discusses potential ways to mobilize domestic and foreign private sector capital in climate finance, as a complement to climate-related policies, by mitigating relevant risks and constraints through public-private partnerships involving multilateral, regional, and national development banks. It also overviews the role the IMF can play in the process.
Keywords:
climate finance; sustainable finance; climate change; sustainable development; financial policy; capital flows; IMF staff Climate note; IMF analysis; venture capital; private sector capital; climate investment; economic gain; public finance; adaptation investment; private sector investor; Bloomberg finance L.P.; investment project; equity capital; adaptation investment project; climate investment decision; Public sector; Non-renewable resources; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Assessing Banking Sector Vulnerabilities in the Gulf Cooperation Council in the Wake of COVID-19
Abdullah Al-Hassan
,
Imen Benmohamed
,
Aidyn Bibolov
,
Giovanni Ugazio
, and
Ms. Tian Zhang
The Gulf Cooperation Council region faced a significant economic toll from the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks in 2020. Policymakers responded to the pandemic with decisive and broad measures to support households and businesses and mitigate the long-term impact on the economy. Financial vulnerabilities have been generally contained, reflecting ongoing policy support and the rebound in economic activity and oil prices, as well as banks entering the COVID-19 crisis with strong capital, liquidity, and profitability. The banking systems remained well-capitalized, but profitability and asset quality were adversely affected. Ongoing COVID-19 policy support could also obscure deterioration in asset quality. Policymakers need to continue to strike a balance between supporting recovery and mitigating risks to financial stability, including ensuring that banks’ buffers are adequate to withstand prolonged pandemic and withdrawal of COVID-related policy support measures. Addressing data gaps would help policymakers to further assess vulnerabilities and mitigate sectoral risks.
Keywords:
COVID-19; banking performance; corporates performance; sovereign-banks-economy nexus; bank asset quality; oil price shock; policy support; assessing banking sector vulnerability; C. bank assets quality; Financial statements; Commercial banks; Loans; Credit; Global; Middle East