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Middle East and Central Asia > Oman

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Cover Staff Climate Notes
Energy Transition and Geoeconomic Fragmentation: Implications for Climate Scenario Design
Charlotte Gardes-Landolfini, Pierpaolo Grippa, William Oman, and Sha Yu
The transition to a low-carbon economy, which is needed to mitigate climate change and meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, has been affected by the supply chain and energy supply disruptions that originated during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent energy crisis and exacerbation of geopolitical tensions. These developments, and the broader context of the ongoing “polycrisis,” can affect future decarbonization scenarios. This reflects three main factors: (1) pullbacks in climate mitigation policies and increased carbon lock-in in fossil fuel infrastructure and policymaking; (2) the decreasing likelihood of continuous cost reduction in renewable energy technologies; and (3) the likely intensification of macroeconomic shocks amid increasing geoeconomic fragmentation, and the associated policy responses. In this context, the note assesses the implications of the polycrisis for hypothetical scenarios used to assess climate-related financial risks. Following an analysis of the channels through which these effects are likely to materialize over short- and long-term horizons and some policy implications, the note proposes potential adjustments to the design of the climate scenarios used by financial institutions, central banks, and financial sector supervisors and regulators within their risk management frameworks.
Keywords:
Climate scenarios; polycrisis; climate risks; carbon lock-in; risk assessment; geoeconomic fragmentation; energy transition; energy security; disorderly transition; trade multilateralism; fossil fuel development; IMF staff climate note; IMF staff climate NOTE 2023/003; climate scenario; Renewable energy; Climate policy; Climate change; Non-renewable resources; Global; Central America; Caribbean
Cover Policy Papers
Resilience and Sustainability Trust – 2023 Contribution Agreements with Italy, Luxembourg, Oman, and the United Kingdom
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept. and International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents Resilience and Sustainability (RST) contribution agreements finalized with four contributors between April 2023 and September 15, 2023. The concluded agreements provide for contributions in a total amount of about SDR 4.7 billion across the three RST accounts – the loan account, deposit account, and reserve account. The new agreements with four members add critical resources that support the continued smooth operations of the RST.
Keywords:
Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST); Contribution agreements; Resource adequacy; Funding; Contributions; transparency policy; contribution agreement; deposit account claim; SDR equivalent; reserve account contribution; Loans; SDR interest rate
Cover Policy Papers
Annual Update on SDR Trading Operations
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
This paper provides an update on the status of the SDR trading market and operations. For more than three decades, SDRs have exclusively been exchanged for freely usable currencies in transactions by agreement, primarily through the Voluntary Trading Arrangements (VTAs). Since the last annual update, SDR trading has continued to be dominated by SDR sales, although SDR acquisitions have increased significantly. From September 2022 to August 2023, SDR 17.9 billion were sold through the VTA market, of which SDR 8.9 billion were exchanged by 29 participants into currencies and SDR 8.0 billion were sold by the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT) and the Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST) for liquidity management and to facilitate the investment of SDR contributions. On the purchase side, the volume and number of transactions increased from the previous year as more participants needed to replenish their SDR holdings to cover charges to the IMF, reflecting the rising SDR interest rate. The VTAs continue to have ample capacities to meet the demand for exchange of SDRs into currencies.
Keywords:
SDR trading capacity; SDR sale; SDR department participant; VTA market; IMF-administered trust; SDR trade; Currencies; Liquidity; Trading arrangements; Freely usable currencies; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cross-Border Risks of a Global Economy in Mid-Transition