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Asia and Pacific > Nepal

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nepal: Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nepal
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Nepal’s post-pandemic rebound, fueled by a credit boom, came to an end last year as growth slowed markedly. Low domestic demand helped resolve external pressures but also deflated government revenue and led to a widening of the fiscal deficit despite spending discipline. Despite the November 2023 earthquake, growth is expected to recover to 3.5 percent in FY2023/24, which is below potential. Inflation is declining but remains high. While the financial sector appears to be weathering the credit contraction, regulatory and supervisory practices need to continue to be strengthened to facilitate the needed transition to more sustainable and pro-growth credit growth.
Keywords:
Nepali authorities; authorities of Nepal; ECF program; development partner; monetary policy transmission; governance framework; Credit; Debt relief; Fiscal risks; Global; Asia and Pacific; South Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nepal: Technical Assistance Report—Financial Sector Stability Review
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept. and International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The mission conducted a diagnostic review of the financial sector oversight capacity and proposed a Technical Assistance Roadmap (TARM) to support the authorities’ efforts to strengthen the identification, analysis, and mitigation of risks to financial stability in Nepal. Two modules were undertaken: (i) the financial stability module, focused on areas agreed with the NRB during the scoping stage: banking supervision and regulation, stress testing, crisis management, payment systems, and financial inclusion; and (ii) the financial sector statistics module, focused on key data gaps hampering financial stability analysis, as well as statistical reporting to the IMF’s STA.
Keywords:
working capital; Nepal FSSR TA roadmap; liquidity regulation; request of the Nepal Rastra Bank; NRB regulation; payment legislation; NRB senior management; IMF to IMF executive directors; IMF MCM; macro-financial risk; payment Systems Department; modernization effort; NRB staff; Payment systems; Stress testing; Real time gross settlement systems; Financial sector stability; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Coping with Climate Shocks: Food Security in a Spatial Framework
Diogo Baptista, John A Spray, and Ms. Filiz D Unsal
We develop a quantitative spatial general equilibrium model with heterogeneous house-holds and multiple locations to study households’ vulnerability to food insecurity from cli-mate shocks. In the model, households endogenously respond to negative climate shocks by drawing-down assets, importing food and temporarily migrating to earn additional income to ensure sufficient calories. Because these coping strategies are most effective when trade and migration costs are low, remote households are more vulnerable to climate shocks. Food insecure households are also more vulnerable, as their proximity to a subsistence requirement causes them to hold a smaller capital buffer and more aggressively dissave in response to shocks, at the expense of future consumption. We calibrate the model to 51 districts in Nepal and estimate the impact of historical climate shocks on food consumption and welfare. We estimate that, on an annual basis, floods, landslides, droughts and storms combined generated GDP losses of 2.3 percent, welfare losses of 3.3 percent for the average household and increased the rate of undernourishment by 2.8 percent. Undernourished households experience roughly 50 percent larger welfare losses and those in remote locations suffer welfare losses that are roughly two times larger than in less remote locations (5.9 vs 2.9 percent). In counterfactual simulations, we show the role of better access to migration and trade in building resilience to climate shocks.
Keywords:
Agriculture; Food Security; Trade, Migration; Climate change; Climate shocks; welfare loss; food consumption; migration cost; loss from climate; losses from climate change; Consumption; Migration; Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nepal: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper utilizes a new macro-model capturing food insecurity, migration and trade in Nepal. It shows that low yields and remoteness explain a majority of the difference in prevalence of food insecurity across districts in Nepal; both climate shocks and persistent climate-change increase food insecurity and disproportionately harm the most vulnerable; and lower wages in migrant destinations would reduce remittances, increase food insecurity and lower welfare. The paper then presents and quantifies a number of potential policies to address these issues. The paper quantifies the impact of a number of policy options (cash transfers, better infrastructure, and improved agricultural productivity) to address food insecurity and climate change. In addition to climate shocks, persistent climate change will lower welfare, increase food insecurity, and migration. Given the model results show that agricultural productivity is a key determinant of food security, Nepal can learn from other countries policies including in agricultural extension, improved community water management techniques, and climate resilient agriculture in line with the National Adaptation Plan.
Keywords:
food insecurity in Nepal; NAC's risk rating; migration cost; remittances in Nepal; NAC's borrowing; Climate change; Food security; Loans; Migration; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nepal: Staff Report for the 2023 Article IV Consultation, First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Extension of the Arrangement, and Rephasing of Disbursements-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nepal
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper presents Nepal’s the 2023 Article IV Consultation, First and Second Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Extension of the Arrangement, and Rephasing of Disbursements. Completion of the first and second reviews under the ECF provides Nepal with access to SDR 39.20 million. Following a strong post-pandemic recovery, external shocks and necessary policy adjustment led to a softening of gross domestic product growth. The much-needed monetary policy tightening helped stabilize the external position and lower inflation, while the recent mid-year budget review is expected to address near-term fiscal risks. Sustainable medium-term growth will require preserving macroeconomic stability and fiscal reforms in line with debt sustainability, advancing reforms on banking regulations and supervision, reducing the cost of doing business and barriers to foreign direct investment, and enhancing governance and the social safety net.
Keywords:
Nepali authorities; ECF arrangement; procurement system; authority Act; monetary policy stance; reform program; Fiscal risks; Credit; Global
Cover South Asia's Path to Resilient Growth
South Asia's Path to Resilient Growth

Abstract

South Asia’s Path to Resilient Growth highlights the remarkable development progress in South Asia and how the region can advance in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Steps include a renewed push toward greater trade and financial openness, while responding proactively to the distributional impact and dislocation associated with this structural transformation. Promoting a green and digital recovery remains important. The book explores ways to accelerate the income convergence process in the region, leveraging on the still-large potential demographic dividend in most of the countries. These include greater economic diversification and export sophistication, trade and foreign direct investment liberalization and participation in global value chains amid shifting regional and global conditions, financial development, and investment in human capital.

Keywords:
South Asia; sustainable growth; structural reforms; macro-financial management; IMF staff calculation; poverty head count ratio; health outcome; government of India; infrastructure investment; technical efficiency; value chain; teachers' wage; Exports; Climate change; Employment; Inflation targeting; East Asia; Global; Asia and Pacific; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nepal: Request for an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility -Press Release; Staff Report; Debt Sustainability Analysis; Staff Supplement; Statement by the Executive Director for Nepal
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted Nepal’s economy. Tourist arrivals collapsed, domestic activity plummeted, and remittances have been volatile. As a result, balance of payments and fiscal financing gaps emerged. After growth was lower than expected in 2019/20, a gradual resumption in economic activity and a corresponding surge in imports and related tax receipts led to higher growth and improved fiscal outturns in 2020/21. However, important fiscal and external financing needs remain to support the COVID-19 response, facilitate a continued recovery, and maintain a comfortable level of reserves.
Keywords:
financing gap; procurement contract; ECF arrangement; November data; import surge; consumer price inflation; COVID-19; Debt relief; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Strengthening Infrastructure Governance for Climate-Responsive Public Investment
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Countries have committed, through the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), to pursue climate targets and policies that would limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. A shift toward green public investment will help to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In addition, substantial public investment will be necessary to build public infrastructure that makes economies more resilient to climate change and related natural disasters. Climate change mitigation and adaptation challenges thus compound preexisting needs for public investment to foster the economic recovery from the pandemic and to meet the SDGs in a broader range of areas, often in a context of limited fiscal space. Against this backdrop, a priority for all countries is to manage their public investment efficiently and effectively. To help countries improve the institutions and processes for infrastructure governance (the planning, allocation, and implementation of public investment), the IMF developed in 2015 the Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA), which has already been applied in over 70 countries. However, the current PIMA does not provide a sufficiently tailored assessment of how public investment management can support climate change mitigation and adaptation. To fill this gap, this paper introduces a new module to the to the current Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) framework, the “Climate-PIMA” (C-PIMA), whose goal is to help governments identify potential improvements in public investment institutions and processes to build low-carbon and climate-resilient infrastructure.
Keywords:
fiscal policy; climate change; infrastructure governance; public investment management; C-PIMA framework; transparency policy; climate PIMA; climate change mitigation; State asset insurance policy; Climate change; Public investment spending; Infrastructure; Natural disasters; Global; Climate finance
Cover Staff Climate Notes
Climate-Sensitive Management of Public Finances—"Green PFM”
Mr. Fabien Gonguet, Mr. Claude P Wendling, Ozlem Aydin Sakrak, and Bryn Battersby
Public financial management (PFM) consists of all the government’s institutional arrangements in place to facilitate the implementation of fiscal policies. In response to the growing urgency to fight climate change, “green PFM” aims at adapting existing PFM practices to support climate-sensitive policies. With the cross-cutting nature of climate change and wider environmental concerns, green PFM can be a key enabler of an integrated government strategy to combat climate change. This note outlines a framework for green PFM, emphasizing the need for an approach combining various entry points within, across, and beyond the budget cycle. This includes components such as fiscal transparency and external oversight, and coordination with state-owned enterprises and subnational governments. The note also identifies principles for effective implementation of a green PFM strategy, among which the need for a strong stewardship located within the ministry of finance is paramount.
Keywords:
public financial management, green budgeting, green public financial management, mainstreaming, climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation; IMF staff Climate note; IMF staff Climate Note 2021/002; climate change mitigation; management of public finances; climate change adaptation; Budget planning and preparation; Climate change; Climate policy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Diversification Strategy for South Asia
Weicheng Lian, Fei Liu, Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, and Biying Zhu
While South Asia has gone a long way in diversifying their economies, there is substantial scope to do more. Some countries – India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka – can build on their existing production capabilities; others – Bangladesh, Bhutan, and the Maldives – would need to undertake a more concerted push. We identify key policies from a large set of potential determinants that explain the variation in export diversification and complexity across 189 countries from 1962 to 2018. Our analysis suggests that South Asia needs to invest in infrastructure, education, and R&D, facilitate bank credit to productive companies, and open to trade in order to diversify and move up the value chains. Given the COVID-19 pandemic, investing in digital technologies as part of the infrastructure push and improving education are of even greater importance to facilitate the ability to work remotely and assist resource reallocation away from the less viable sectors.
Keywords:
summary statistic; outlook index; Economics complexity; South Asia's progress; diversification of export; Export diversification; Exports; Infrastructure; Income; South Asia