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Europe > Norway

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Finland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines Finland’s sectoral balance sheets and how they have evolved since the global financial crisis; the analysis reveals that financial vulnerabilities have risen in most sectors. Indebtedness has increased for nonfinancial corporations (NFCs), households, and the government, increasing their financial fragility and vulnerability to shocks. Also, cross-border financial exposures have risen on both sides of Finland’s balance sheet. Specifically, banks’ balance sheets have grown considerably, largely owing to a rise in foreign liabilities. NFCs and the government have also relied in part on foreign investors to finance their debt increases.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; firm; private sector; firm productivity; product market; firm TFP; accounts payable; productivity gain; company size; Productivity; Financial statements; Commodity markets; Total factor productivity; Stocks; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper discusses the oil economy, outlook, and risk for Norway. Growth has continued to slow in the mainland economy. At the start of this year, oil prices had dropped by roughly 60 percent from their peak in June 2014 to less than US$40 a barrel. The labor market is feeling the sting of the oil price crash. The krone has weakened substantially along with the decline in oil prices. However, a modest recovery should take root next year. Mainland economy growth should be about 1 percent this year and pick up to close to 1¾ percent in 2017.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; mortgage; firm; risk; firm TFP; oil price; mortgage risk weight; development enterprise; labor market; LTV ratio guideline; tax deductibility; valuation gap; firm productivity; Housing prices; Mortgages; Productivity; Macroprudential policy instruments; Oil; Global; Western Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries
Mr. Rabah Arezki
,
Valerie A Ramey
, and
Liugang Sheng
This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
Keywords:
WP; open economy; substitution effect; oil; news shocks; current account and business cycles; investment-GDP ratio; oil discovery; ratio decrease; account-GDP ratio; saving-GDP ratio; anticipation effect; Current account; Oil production; Oil sector; Consumption; Middle East; Global; North Africa
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, September 2015
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The September 2015 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin covers a range of research topics. The Research Summaries featured in this issue are “Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States” (Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen) and “Economic Principles for Resource Revenue Management” (Anthony J. Venables and Samuel Wills). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financing for Development” (Amadou Sy) and the global development agenda. The issue also includes special announcements on the 2015 Annual Research Conference and the 2015 IMF Annual Report, as well as new IMF publications. Readers will also find a link to a top-viewed article from the “IMF Economic Review”—the IMF’s official research journal.
Keywords:
IRB; IMF research bulletin; anchor; research conference; journal of the IMF; research community; Policy instrument; Asia's financial systems; Infrastructure; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Central bank policy rate; Output gap; Consumption; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Asia and Pacific; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines migration patterns in Norway and their implications for estimates of potential output. It applies a new methodology proposed by Borio and others (2013) to estimate potential output by drawing on information about immigration and oil price movements. The paper also provides an overview of the recent trend in immigration in Norway and discusses various estimates of potential output using standard approaches. The results indicate that immigration plays a small but statistically significant role in the estimation of potential output for Norway. The data show that immigration inflows into Norway vary across source countries. The largest share of immigrants is from Poland, accounting for 15 percent of the total in 2012. Immigration patterns in Norway contain both cyclical and structural elements, but the latter seems dominant at least for now. Empirical results also suggest that immigration plays some role in determining potential output, however, its impact is quite small, consistent with the view that the recent immigration patterns are structural.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; enterprise; HP filter; output gap estimate; mainland GDP output gap; autoregressive output gap term; telecom company; Productivity; Migration; Potential output; Personal income; Corporate income tax; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iraq: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Iraq discusses medium-term projections for oil production and exports. Constraints to oil export volumes arise from export bottlenecks and technical production issues. Production is held back by technical challenges such as the need for water injection in the southern oil fields and limited supply of electricity, of which the oil industry is one of the main consumers. Export infrastructure has suffered during many years of decay owing to sanctions and wars. The Iraqi crude is priced as an average of a benchmark oil price for 15 or 30 days from the bill of lading.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; Iraq; export; DFI; expenditure; oil price; DFI reserve; infrastructure development; export trend; CBI reserve; Oil prices; Oil exports; Oil; Exports; Oil production; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts
Mr. Olivier Coibion
and
Mr. Yuriy Gorodnichenko
We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to U.S. and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process.
Keywords:
WP; standard deviation; real GDP; growth rate; information rigidity; Numbers; Expectations; Survey Forecasts; noisy-information model; forecast error; information friction; Rational expectations; Inflation; Oil prices; Industrial production
Cover IMF Working Papers
Optimal Oil Production and the World Supply of Oil
Mr. Nikolay Aleksandrov
,
Mr. lajos Gyurko
, and
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
We study the optimal oil extraction strategy and the value of an oil field using a multiple real option approach. The numerical method is flexible enough to solve a model with several state variables, to discuss the effect of risk aversion, and to take into account uncertainty in the size of reserves. Optimal extraction in the baseline model is found to be volatile. If the oil producer is risk averse, production is more stable, but spare capacity is much higher than what is typically observed. We show that decisions are very sensitive to expectations on the equilibrium oil price using a mean reverting model of the oil price where the equilibrium price is also a random variable. Oil production was cut during the 2008–2009 crisis, and we find that the cut in production was larger for OPEC, for countries facing a lower discount rate, as predicted by the model, and for countries whose governments’ finances are less dependent on oil revenues. However, the net present value of a country’s oil reserves would be increased significantly (by 100 percent, in the most extreme case) if production was cut completely when prices fall below the country's threshold price. If several producers were to adopt such strategies, world oil prices would be higher but more stable.
Keywords:
WP; equilibrium price; Oil production; Real Options; Capacity Expansion; Equilibrium Price of Oil; OPEC; oil price; extraction cost; threshold price; continuation value; price shock; investment cost; Oil prices; Oil; Asset prices; gas and mining taxes
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Chile: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper for Chile assesses the impact of the global financial crisis on Chilean banks. It provides a framework for analyzing government measures aimed at reducing systemic risk. The analysis suggests that Chilean banks are resilient to global and regional shocks. However, even in the absence of direct exposures with other countries in the region, there may be risk spillovers from other banks in the region and in advanced economies. The paper also presents options for further strengthening Chile’s fiscal framework.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Chile; productivity slowdown; EDF; BIS banking data; factor productivity; Chilean bank; Moody's credit ratings; risk measure; Total expenditures; Productivity; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
After five years of Paraguay’s high growth led, in part by agro-exporting sectors, the external environment has turned less favorable, with a sharp decline of export prices and a curtailment of external credit lines. The Selected Issues paper for Paraguay discusses economic development and policies. Over the same period, inflation remained above 5 percent, but hovered around 10 percent in the last two years, fed in part by supply shocks but possibly also by an overheating of the economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; bank behavior; monetary policy rule; primary sector; bank fundamentals; excess output gap; Credit; Banking crises; Output gap; Inflation; Global