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Europe > Norway

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Norway
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that boosting labor supply, containing public expenditure pressures, and raising productivity will be required for Norway to be able to continue its strong economic performance and preserve its welfare model. A recent White Paper by the Ministry of Finance rightly raises these key issues facing Norway’s economy in the longer term. Real gross domestic product growth slowed in 2023 and is expected to gradually rebound in the near term as private domestic demand strengthens supported by higher real incomes. Tight macroprudential policies should remain in place to mitigate systemic vulnerabilities. The financial system appears resilient and banking system buffers are strong. Long-term fiscal challenges should be more forcefully addressed. Norway has the largest proportion of the population on disability-related benefits among the organisation for economic co-operation and development countries, and reforming costly and distortionary social benefit systems is possibly the most important and politically difficult reform pending. Although Norway boasts one of the highest levels of labor productivity among its peers, it has slowed faster than in other countries. To reverse this trend, conditions should be improved to facilitate sectoral reallocation as well as innovation and technology adoption.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; holdings of SDR; monetary policy stance; inflation pressure; consumer price inflation; Inflation; Labor markets; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A New Fiscal Framework for Resource-Rich Countries
Mr. Luc Eyraud
,
William Gbohoui
, and
Mr. Paulo A Medas
This paper revisits the debate on the design of fiscal rules in resource-rich countries. Its main objective is to assess alternative systems of rules against their policy objectives, while taking into account country characteristics. One of the contributions of the paper is to propose fiscal frameworks that are centered around the principle of insurance against shocks and less reliant on estimating precisely resource wealth, which tends to be highly volatile.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Rules; Non-Renewable resources; Resource Funds; Nonrenewable Resource Exporting Countries; resource wealth; personal income hypothesis; financial assets floor; IMF working paper 23/230; net financial assets; policy objective; resource revenue; Natural resources; Commodity prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Norway
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The economy bounced back strongly from the first wave of Covid-19 pandemic, and the recovery is well entrenched in 2022. However, risks to the outlook are considerable, given the uncertainty over spillovers from the war in Ukraine, the intensity of the pandemic globally, and in Europe, in particular, and supply bottlenecks. Given the strong fundamentals, Norway is relatively shielded and there are both upside (higher energy prices and export volumes) and downside risks (lower demand from Europe for non-energy exports). The forecast is especially sensitive to where energy prices settle, whether energy supply to Europe will be disrupted, and Norway’s capacity to increase gas supplies to Europe.
Keywords:
liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; inflation pressure; normalising economy; core inflation; Inflation; Mortgages; Climate change; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Usability of Bank Capital Buffers: The Role of Market Expectations
José Abad
Following the COVID shock, supervisors encouraged banks to use capital buffers to support the recovery. However, banks have been reluctant to do so. Provided the market expects a bank to rebuild its buffers, any draw-down will open up a capital shortfall that will weigh on its share price. Therefore, a bank will only decide to use its buffers if the value creation from a larger loan book offsets the costs associated with a capital shortfall. Using market expectations, we calibrate a framework for assessing the usability of buffers. Our results suggest that the cases in which the use of buffers make economic sense are rare in practice.
Keywords:
Capital Buffers; Basel III; Capital Regulation; Financial Institutions; Macropru; valuation model; buffer Usability; market expectation; bank Capital Structure; capital shortfall; Countercyclical capital buffers; Correspondent banking; Loans; Market capitalization; COVID-19; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Kitts and Nevis
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
St. Kitts and Nevis entered the Covid-19 pandemic from a position of fiscal strength following nearly a decade of budget surpluses. A significant part of the large CBI revenues was prudently saved, reducing public debt below the regional debt target of 60 percent of GDP and supporting accumulation of large government deposits.
Keywords:
authorities of St. Kitts and Nevis; CBI revenue; CBI revenue volatility; government target population; CBI program; lower-than-expected CBI receipts; COVID-19; Loans; Caribbean; Western Hemisphere; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Staff Statement
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Norway’s key challenge is to get the right balance of support for recovery and adjustment until the crisis is firmly in its past. The authorities intend to continue exceptional policy support into 2021, adjusted to reflect the rebound in economic activity and pace of vaccinations in the second half of the year, and with better targeting to affected sectors. This will support the expected closing of the output gap by 2023 and help mitigate scarring, while also facilitating reallocation of capital and labor.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; corona crisis; mainland GDP; staff representative; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; COVID-19; Loans; Fiscal stance; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Climate Mitigation Policy in Denmark: A Prototype for Other Countries
Nicoletta Batini
,
Ian W.H. Parry
, and
Mr. Philippe Wingender
Denmark has a highly ambitious goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 70 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. While there is general agreement that carbon pricing should be the centerpiece of Denmark’s mitigation strategy, pricing needs to be effective, address equity and leakage concerns, and be reinforced by additional measures at the sectoral level. The strategy Denmark develops can be a good prototype for others to follow. This paper discusses mechanisms to scale up domestic carbon pricing, compensate households, and possibly combine pricing with a border carbon adjustment. It also recommends the use of revenue-neutral feebate schemes to strengthen mitigation incentives, particularly for transportation and agriculture, fisheries and forestry, though these schemes could also be applied more widely.
Keywords:
Denmark climate mitigation; carbon pricing; feebate; revenue recycling; border carbon adjustment; transportation; agriculture.; WP; emission rate; EU ETS; emissions price; sliding scale; greenhouse gas; proxy emissions fee; Climate change; agriculture; energy price; mitigation target; nitrogen oxide emission; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Consumption; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Europe
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Europe
Whatever It Takes: Europe’s Response to COVID-19
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused dramatic loss of human life and major damage to the European economy, but thanks to an exceptionally strong policy response, potentially devastating outcomes have been avoided.

Keywords:
lockdowns; pandemic; corporate liquidity; recovery; reopening; economic outlook; forecasting; REO; policy support; infection curve; job retention program; Europe transform; financial market disruption; pandemic economy; solvency risks in Europe; time trend; reopening indices; infection incidence; reinfection risk; infection rate; credit access; containment policy; COVID-19; Liquidity; Solvency; Infrastructure; Europe; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust—Second Tranche Of Debt Service Relief In The Context Of The COVID-19 Pandemic
International Monetary Fund
This paper proposes that the Executive Board approve the disbursement of a second 6-month tranche of CCRT debt service relief to 28 of the 29 members, covering the period October 14, 2020 through April 13, 2021, given staff’s assessment that sufficient financial resources are available.2 In this context, the paper also provides brief updates for each beneficiary country on its policy responses to the pandemic and staff’s assessment of these policies and the use of resources freed up by debt service relief. It also provides an update on the finances of the CCRT and the fundraising efforts to secure adequate resources for grant assistance in the future. Based on grant pledges to date, resources are not sufficient to extend CCRT relief beyond the proposed second sixth-month period.
Keywords:
PP; tranche; SDR; CCRT debt service relief; about SDR; COVID balance of SDR; status of the CCRT; tranche of debt service relief; Debt service; Debt relief; COVID-19; Debt financing; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
What are the Economic Effects of Pandemic Containment Policies? Evidence from Sweden
Mrs. Jana Bricco
,
Florian Misch
, and
Alexandra Solovyeva
This paper examines the economic effects of policies to contain Covid-19, by extracting lessons from Sweden’s experience during the ‘Great Lockdown’. Sweden’s approach was less stringent and based more on social responsibility than legal obligations compared to European peers. First, we provide an account of Sweden’s strategy and the health outcomes. Second, drawing on a range of data sources and empirical findings, our analysis of the first Covid-19 wave indicates that a less stringent strategy can soften the economic impact initially. These benefits could be eroded subsequently, due to potentially higher infection rates and a prolonged pandemic, but in Sweden’s case, the evidence remains mixed in this regard, and it is premature to judge the outcome of Sweden’s containment strategy. In addition, the economic effects of the containment strategy also depend on social behavior, demographics and structural features of the economy, such as the degree of export orientation, reliance on global supply chains, and malleability to remote working.
Keywords:
WP; Sweden; containment; containment measure; IMF staff calculation; containment strategy