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Europe > Norway

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 44 items for :

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  • Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Are Climate Change Policies Politically Costly?
Davide Furceri
,
Michael Ganslmeier
, and
Mr. Jonathan David Ostry
Are policies designed to avert climate change (Climate Change Policies, or CCPs) politically costly? Using data on governmental popular support and the OECD’s Environmental Stringency Index, we find that CCPs are not necessarily politically costly: policy design matters. First, only market-based CCPs (such as emission taxes) generate negative effects on popular support. Second, the effects are muted in countries where non-green (dirty) energy is a relatively small input into production. Third, political costs are not significant when CCPs are implemented during periods of low oil prices, generous social insurance and low inequality.
Keywords:
EPS change; policy design; Policy implication; popular support; baseline model; Climate change; Climate policy; Fuel prices; Environmental policy; Natural disasters; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Climate-Related Stress Testing: Transition Risks in Norway
Pierpaolo Grippa
and
Samuel Mann
This paper explores three possible transmission channels for transition risk shocks to the financial system in Norway. First, we estimate the direct firm-level impact of a substantial increase in domestic carbon prices under severe assumptions. Second, we map the impact of a drastic increase in global carbon prices on the domestic economy via the Norwegian oil sector. Third, we model the impact of a forced reduction in Norwegian oil firms’ output on shareholder portfolios. Results show that such a sharp increase in carbon prices would have a significant but manageable impact on banks. Finally, the paper discusses ways to advance the still evolving field of transition risk stress testing.
Keywords:
Climate change; transition risk; carbon emissions; carbon price; environmental policy; asset pricing; financial stability; WP; balance sheet approach; emissions data; low-carbon economy; enterprise value; Carbon tax; Oil sector; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Oil prices; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Europe
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Europe
Domestic Expansion Running into External Turbulence
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Economic activity continued to expand in the first half of 2018, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace, mainly in advanced Europe. Domestic demand, supported by stronger employment and wages, remains the main engine of growth. However, the external environment has become less supportive and is expected to soften further in 2019 owing to slowing global demand, trade tensions, and higher energy prices. Tighter financial conditions in vulnerable emerging market economies and maturing business cycles are also weighing on activity. Accordingly, growth is projected to moderate from 2.8 percent in 2017 to 2.3 percent in 2018 and 1.9 percent in 2019. That said, it is expected to remain above potential in most countries in the region.

Keywords:
REO; monetary policy priority; credit growth; inflation pressure; financial condition; house price increase; policy space; Housing prices; Mortgages; Consumer credit; Macroprudential policy instruments; Inflation; Europe; Global; IMF staff calculation; trade openness; LTV cap; EU funds; asset price overvaluation; Credit
Cover IMF Working Papers
Counting the Oil Money and the Elderly: Norway's Public Sector Balance Sheet
Ezequiel Cabezon
and
Christian Henn
Based on a permanent income analysis, Gagnon (2018) has prominently suggested that Norway has saved too much, thereby free-riding on the rest of the world for demand. Our public sector balance sheet analysis comes to the opposite conclusion, chiefly because it also accounts for future aging costs. Unsurprisingly, we find that Norway’s current assets exceed its liabilities by some 340 percent of mainland GDP. But its nonoil fiscal deficits have grown very large (to almost 8 percent of mainland GDP) and aging pressures are only commencing. Therefore, Norway’s intertemporal financial net worth (IFNW) is negative, at about -240 percent of mainland GDP. As IFNW represents an intertemporal budget constraint, this implies that Norway’s savings are likely insufficient to address aging costs without additional fiscal action.
Keywords:
WP; mainland GDP; oil price; GPFG asset; asset price; asset stock; Public Sector Balance Sheet; Intertemporal Fiscal Balances; Debt Sustainability; Norway; statistics Norway; Norwegian krone; Norway's intertemporal financial net worth; Intertemporal public sector balance sheet; Norway's assets; Norway's IFNW; nonfinancial assets; GPFG consist; price development; Financial statements; Oil prices; Asset prices; Aging; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Norwegian economy is slowly recovering from the oil shock as domestic demand grew stronger aided by accommodative macroeconomic policies. Inflation declined recently owing to the pass-through of krone appreciation, but expectations remain well-anchored. In addition, banks remain profitable and well capitalized. Mainland growth is projected to increase from just below 1 percent in 2016 to 1.75 and 2.25 percent in 2017 and 2018 respectively, supported by the recovery of exports and stronger private demand. Inflation is projected to edge down further in pace with the unwinding of krone depreciation, before converging to the target over the medium term as trading-partner inflation rises.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; fiscal policy; debt; holding; housing market; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; inflation expectation; central government debt; trading-partner inflation rise; Housing prices; Inflation; Oil prices; Housing; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Norway
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The paper examines the nature and scale of spillovers to a number of European countries from monetary policies in the euro area and the United States using three different approaches. The analysis focuses on selected non-euro-area countries in Europe: the Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, and Sweden. Recent developments in these countries’ sovereign bond yields and exchange rates are indicative of potential spillovers. The paper’s most consistent analytical finding is for spillovers to lower domestic bond yields, with the potential for repercussions on credit expansion and asset prices. More recently, the event study uncovered evidence of upward pressure on the exchange rate.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; economy; house price inflation; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; inflation expectation; money market rate; central government debt; Oil prices; Housing prices; Inflation; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses the importance of oil and interest rate spillovers for Saudi Arabia. Oil prices have fallen by more than 40 percent since mid-2014 while the Federal Reserve is expected in the coming months to begin raising its policy rate at the beginning of a gradual tightening cycle. Given the importance of oil to the economy and the peg of the riyal to the U.S. dollar, these are two key developments for Saudi Arabia. Although a temporary drop in oil prices would likely have little effect on the economy and banks given the financial cushions that have been built-up, a longer-lasting period of low oil prices would have a more significant impact.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; oil price; private sector; government spending; equity price; energy price; NPL ratio; price reform; Energy prices; Oil prices; Fuel prices; Labor markets; Electricity; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; oil price; private sector; government spending
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2015 Article IV Consultation - Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Statement by the Executive Director for Norway
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Norwegian economy performed well in 2014 despite the sharp fall in oil prices toward the end of the year. Mainland GDP grew at 2.2 percent, with weaker investment demand being offset by stronger government consumption. Unemployment stayed at a low level in 2014, but has recently edged up to 4.5 percent in June 2015 according to the labor force survey. The near-term outlook has weakened owing to lower oil prices. Mainland GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.3 percent in 2015 with weaker private investment and consumption. Looking further ahead, the medium and longer term present challenges of managing a transition away from the oil-dependent growth model.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; price; debt; holding; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; SDR percent; asset price growth; inflation expectation; oil price; Oil prices; Housing prices; Inflation; Exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Spillovers in the Nordic Countries
Mr. Dirk V Muir
Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden form a tightly integrated region which has strong ties with the euro area as well as some exposure to Russia. Using the IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), we examine spillovers the region could face, focusing on possible scenarios from the rest of the euro area and Russia, and the fall in global oil prices. We show that the spillovers from these scenarios differ in magnitude and impact, regardless of the high degree of integration among the four Nordic economies. These differences are driven by the fact that Denmark and Finland have no independent monetary policy, and Denmark and Norway are net energy exporters while Finland and Sweden are energy importers. We infer lessons for policy from the outcomes.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP; Finland; price; euro area; euro; Spillovers; monetary policy; fiscal policy; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; Nordic countries; area imports; real GDP trough; mainland real GDP; oil price drop; monetary policy response; demand share; Norway's mainland real GDP trough; demand share of the oil price decrease; investment demand; mainland real GDP trough; monetary policy in Denmark; GDP reduction; Energy pricing; Energy prices; Consumption; Oil prices; Sovereign wealth funds; Europe; Global