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Europe > Norway

You are looking at 1 - 6 of 6 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Commodity Markets x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
A New Fiscal Framework for Resource-Rich Countries
Mr. Luc Eyraud
,
William Gbohoui
, and
Mr. Paulo A Medas
This paper revisits the debate on the design of fiscal rules in resource-rich countries. Its main objective is to assess alternative systems of rules against their policy objectives, while taking into account country characteristics. One of the contributions of the paper is to propose fiscal frameworks that are centered around the principle of insurance against shocks and less reliant on estimating precisely resource wealth, which tends to be highly volatile.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Rules; Non-Renewable resources; Resource Funds; Nonrenewable Resource Exporting Countries; resource wealth; personal income hypothesis; financial assets floor; IMF working paper 23/230; net financial assets; policy objective; resource revenue; Natural resources; Commodity prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macroeconomic Stability in Resource-Rich Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy
Ms. Elva Bova
,
Mr. Paulo A Medas
, and
Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
Resource-rich countries face large and persistent shocks, especially coming from volatile commodity prices. Given the severity of the shocks, it would be expected that these countries adopt countercyclical fiscal policies to help shield the domestic economy. Taking advantage of a new dataset covering 48 non-renewable commodity exporters for the period 1970-2014, we investigate whether fiscal policy does indeed play a stabilizing role. Our analysis shows that fiscal policy tends to have a procyclical bias (mainly via expenditures) and, contrary to others, we do not find evidence that this bias has declined in recent years. Adoption of fiscal rules does not seem to reduce procyclicality in a significant way, but the quality of political institutions does matter. Finally, non-commodity revenues tend to respond only to persistent changes in commodity prices.
Keywords:
WP; good; commodity price; output gap; commodity prices; resource-rich countries; procyclical fiscal policy; Non-commodity output gap; commodity revenue; commodity exporter; price fluctuation; price change; Commodity price fluctuations; Global
Cover Fiscal Monitor, October 2015
Fiscal Monitor, October 2015
The Commodities Roller Coaster - A Fiscal Framework for Uncertain Times
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.

Abstract

This issue of the Fiscal Monitor examines the conduct of fiscal policy under the uncertainty caused by dependence on natural resource revenues. It draws on extensive past research on the behavior of commodity prices and their implications for macroeconomic outcomes, as well as on extensive IMF technical assistance to resource-rich economies seeking to improve their management of natural resource wealth.

Keywords:
FM; def; country abbreviation; statistics manual; commodity exporter; commodity price; resource revenue windfall; Fiscal stance; Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts; Commodity prices; Global; Middle East; North Africa; Asia and Pacific; Africa; commodity revenue; oil price shock; commodity cycle; commodity dependence; price dynamics; commodity price swing; commodity price upturn; price-smoothing rule; price windfall; commodity price cycle; unexpected commodity price swing; Natural resources; Commodity price fluctuations
Cover Beyond the Curse
Beyond the Curse
Policies to Harness the Power of Natural Resources
Mr. Amadou N Sy
,
Mr. Rabah Arezki
, and
Thorvaldur Gylfason

Abstract

Countries with an abundance of natural resources, many of which are in sub-Saharan Africa, often show a record of relatively poor economic performance compared with non-resource-rich countries. The chapters in this volume explore the potential challenges to countries with abundant natural resources and ways to manage these challenges so as to reap the benefits of resource wealth while avoiding the pitfalls. The book is divided into five sections, which explore commodity markets and the macroeconomy, economic diversification and the role of finance, fiscal policy, exchange rates and financial stability, and governance. The ideas in this book were first presented at a seminar in November 2010 that was aimed primarily at policymakers in sub-Saharan Africa and brought together ministers, central bank governors, other senior policymakers, and well-known academics.

Keywords:
BOOK; country; commodity; government; natural resource; resource abundance; petroleum fund; resource rent; resource windfall; Natural resources; Commodity prices; Oil; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Africa; Middle East; Europe; commodity-exporting country; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Resource Windfalls, Macroeconomic Stability and Growth: The Role of Political Institutions
Mr. Kazim Kazimov
,
Mr. Kirk Hamilton
, and
Mr. Rabah Arezki
We use a new dataset on non-resource GDP to examine the performance of commodity-exporting countries in terms of macroeconomic stability and economic growth in a panel of up to 129 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main findings are threefold. First, we find that overall government spending in commodity-exporting countries has been procyclical. Second, we find that resource windfalls initially crowd out non-resource GDP which then increases as a result of the fiscal expansion. Third, we find that in the long run resource windfalls have negative effects on non-resource sector GDP growth. Yet, the effects turn out to be statistically insignificant when controlling for government spending. Both the effects of resource windfalls on macroeconomic stability and economic growth are moderated by the quality of political institutions.
Keywords:
WP; GDP; resource windfall; commodity; country; standard deviation; fiscal policy; macroeconomic stability; economic growth; windfall shock; unit resource rent; Non-resource GDP; resource curse; windfall index; Natural resources; Commodity price fluctuations; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa; Central Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America
Leandro Medina
The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has raised concerns about the impact of volatile commodity prices on Latin American countries’ fiscal positions. Using a novel quarterly data set-which includes unique country-specific commodity price indices and a comprehensive measure of public expenditures-this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of commodity price fluctuations on fiscal revenues and expenditures for eight commodity-exporting Latin American countries. The results indicate that Latin American countries’ fiscal positions react strongly to shocks to commodity prices, yet there are marked differences across countries. Fiscal variables in Venezuela display the highest sensitivity to commodity price shocks, with expenditures reacting significantly more than revenues. At the other end of the spectrum, in Chile expenditure reacts very little to commodity price fluctuations, and the dynamic responses of its fiscal indicators are very similar to those seen in high-income commodity-exporting countries. This distinct behavior across countries may relate to institutional arrangements, which in some cases include the efficient application of fiscal rules amid political commitment and high standards of transparency.
Keywords:
WP; commodity; country; commodity export price index