Europe > Norway

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Kohei Asao
,
Danila Smirnov
, and
TengTeng Xu
Japan’s fertility has declined in the past three decades. Raising Japan’s fertility rate is a key policy priority for the government. Using cross-country analysis and case studies, this paper finds that the most successful measure to support the fertility rate is the provision of childcare facilities, particularly for children aged 0-2. Offering stronger incentives for the use of paternity leave can alleviate the burden of childcare on mothers, supporting fertility. On the other hand, there is limited evidence that cash transfers are effective in supporting fertility, based on international experience.
Mrs. Jana Bricco
,
Florian Misch
, and
Alexandra Solovyeva
This paper examines the economic effects of policies to contain Covid-19, by extracting lessons from Sweden’s experience during the ‘Great Lockdown’. Sweden’s approach was less stringent and based more on social responsibility than legal obligations compared to European peers. First, we provide an account of Sweden’s strategy and the health outcomes. Second, drawing on a range of data sources and empirical findings, our analysis of the first Covid-19 wave indicates that a less stringent strategy can soften the economic impact initially. These benefits could be eroded subsequently, due to potentially higher infection rates and a prolonged pandemic, but in Sweden’s case, the evidence remains mixed in this regard, and it is premature to judge the outcome of Sweden’s containment strategy. In addition, the economic effects of the containment strategy also depend on social behavior, demographics and structural features of the economy, such as the degree of export orientation, reliance on global supply chains, and malleability to remote working.
Cristian Alonso
,
Mariya Brussevich
,
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Yuko Kinoshita
, and
Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
Unpaid work, such as caring for children, the elderly, and household chores represents a significant share of economic activity but is not counted as part of GDP. Women disproportionately shoulder the burden of unpaid work: on average, women do two more hours of unpaid work per day than men, with large differences across countries. While much unpaid care work is done entirely by choice, constraints imposed by cultural norms, labor market features or lack of public services, infrastructure, and family-friendly policies matter. This undermines female labor force participation and lowers economy-wide productivity. In this paper, we examine recent trends in unpaid work around the world using aggregate and individual-level data, explore potential drivers, and identify policies that can help reduce and redistribute unpaid work across genders. Conservative model-based estimates suggest that the gains from these policies could amount to up to 4 percent of GDP.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Norway is in the midst of a healthy recovery from the oil downturn, supported by positive trends in oil prices and a strengthening labor market. In addition, banks remain profitable and well capitalized. However, household debt continues to increase and house prices have resumed their rise, especially in the Oslo area, after a correction during 2017. Mainland growth is projected to increase from 2 percent in 2017 to 2.5 percent in each 2018 and 2019, underpinned by solid consumption, stronger business investment and an export recovery. Petroleum investment will also pick up. As a result, output will likely start to exceed potential in 2019.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper examines various factors driving the uptrend in house prices, with a particular focus on institutional and structural factors. The extent of a possible valuation gap is gauged empirically in the context of a cross-country panel analysis of long-run fundamental determinants of house prices using data from 20 OECD countries. Norway has seen a long housing boom since the mid-1990s apart from a brief and mild downturn during the global financial crisis, with house price inflation exceeding income growth by a wide margin. Although real house prices have also been up strongly during the same period in the majority of advanced economies, Norway experienced one of the highest increases in the OECD. With house prices rising ahead of income, the average cost of a home relative to the median household income nationwide has almost doubled since the mid-1990s, rising much faster than OECD average. In absolute terms, the house price-to-income (PTI) ratio is also high relative to a range of countries.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Norwegian economy is slowly recovering from the oil shock as domestic demand grew stronger aided by accommodative macroeconomic policies. Inflation declined recently owing to the pass-through of krone appreciation, but expectations remain well-anchored. In addition, banks remain profitable and well capitalized. Mainland growth is projected to increase from just below 1 percent in 2016 to 1.75 and 2.25 percent in 2017 and 2018 respectively, supported by the recovery of exports and stronger private demand. Inflation is projected to edge down further in pace with the unwinding of krone depreciation, before converging to the target over the medium term as trading-partner inflation rises.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The paper examines the nature and scale of spillovers to a number of European countries from monetary policies in the euro area and the United States using three different approaches. The analysis focuses on selected non-euro-area countries in Europe: the Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, and Sweden. Recent developments in these countries’ sovereign bond yields and exchange rates are indicative of potential spillovers. The paper’s most consistent analytical finding is for spillovers to lower domestic bond yields, with the potential for repercussions on credit expansion and asset prices. More recently, the event study uncovered evidence of upward pressure on the exchange rate.
Lone Engbo Christiansen
,
Ms. Huidan Huidan Lin
,
Ms. Joana Pereira
,
Petia Topalova
, and
Ms. Rima A Turk
With an aging population and declining productivity growth, Europe faces serious challenges to raising its output growth. Adding to these challenges are the various gender gaps in the labor market. Despite significant progress in recent decades, there are still fewer women than men participating in Europe’s labor market, and women are more likely to work part time. Furthermore, a smaller share of women reaches the top rungs of the corporate ladder. Could greater gender equality in the labor market help mitigate the slowdown in Europe’s growth potential? Against this backdrop, this paper investigates the drivers of female labor force participation in Europe as well as what effects greater gender diversity in senior corporate positions might have for Europe’s economic performance. Reexamining the factors driving women’s labor force participation is particularly important because in many European countries the process of closing the gender gap has stalled despite greater gender equality in human capital investment, declining birth rates, changing social norms, and equal legal access to employment opportunities. Investigating whether firm performance could be improved if women held a greater share of senior positions is also essential given that the empirical evidence from past research into this question has been inconclusive.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Finances & Développement, mars 2015
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Finance and Development, March 2015