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Europe > Norway

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Central Bank Exit Strategies Domestic Transmission and International Spillovers
Christopher J. Erceg
,
Marcin Kolasa
,
Jesper Lindé
,
Haroon Mumtaz
, and
Pawel Zabczyk
We study alternative approaches to the withdrawal of prolonged unconventional monetary stimulus (“exit strategies”) by central banks in large, advanced economies. We first show empirically that large-scale asset purchases affect the exchange rate and domestic and foreign term premiums more strongly than conventional short-term policy rate changes when normalizing by the effects on domestic GDP. We then build a two-country New Keynesian model that features segmented bond markets, cognitive discounting and strategic complementarities in price setting that is consistent with these findings. The model implies that quantitative easing (QE) is the only effective way to provide monetary stimulus when policy rates are persistently constrained by the effective lower bound, and that QE is likely to have larger domestic output effects than quantitative tightening (QT). We demonstrate that “exit strategies” by large advanced economies that rely heavily on QT can trigger sizeable inflation-output tradeoffs in foreign recipient economies through the exchange rate and term premium channels. We also show that these tradeoffs are likely to be stronger in emerging market economies, especially those with fixed exchange rates.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Quantitative Easing; International Spillovers; asset purchase; central bank exit strategies; inflation surge scenario; Policy conduct; appendix E. term premium; open economy; Central bank policy rate; Inflation; Unconventional monetary policies; Bonds; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Did Insurers Become Risk-Loving During “Low-for-Long”? The Role of Returns, Ratings, and Regulation
Jeroen Brinkhoff
and
Mr. Juan Sole
European life insurance companies are important bond investors and had traditionally played a stabilizing role in financial markets by pursuing “buy-and-hold” investment strategies. However, since the onset of the ultra-low interest rates era in 2008, observers noted a decline in the credit quality of insurers’ bond portfolios. The commonly-held explanation for this deterioration is that low returns pushed insurers to become more risk-taking. We argue that other factors—such as surging rating downgrades, bond revaluations, and regulatory changes—also played a key role. We estimate that rating changes, revaluations, and search for yield each account for about one-third each of the total deterioration in credit quality. This result has important policy implications as it reestablishes the view that insurers’ investment behavior tends to be passive through the cycle—rather than risk-seeking.
Keywords:
Life Insurance sector; financial stability; credit ratings; bond revaluation; life insurance insurance company; bond portfolio; investment behavior; bond investor; Bonds; Insurance companies; Corporate bonds; Sovereign bonds; Bond ratings; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Systemic Liquidity
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Norwegian banks and other financial institutions rely heavily on capital markets for liquidity and risk management. Liquidity conditions in the Norwegian financial sector are affected by central bank operations and the lending and funding activities of financial institutions, both domestically and abroad. Nearly 40 percent of the funding of Norwegian banks is obtained from market sources, using commercial paper, covered bonds, and senior unsecured bonds issued both domestically and abroad. Correspondingly, money markets, foreign exchange (FX) swap markets and bond markets are crucial to the credit intermediation process and a dislocation in these markets—the inability of financial institutions to roll over, or obtain new, funding—could have significant consequences for financial stability. Against this background, this note analyzes core funding markets for Norwegian banks and assesses Norges Bank’s capacity to manage systemic liquidity conditions and counteract liquidity shocks in normal times and in times of stress.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; spot market; commercial paper; cross holdings; FX swap market; liquidity support; government bond; central bank; U.S. dollar; secondary market; mortgage loan; government bond market; market development; Liquidity; Covered bonds; Currency swaps; Sovereign bonds; Collateral; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Swing Pricing and Fragility in Open-end Mutual Funds
Dunhong Jin
,
Marcin Kacperczyk
,
Bige Kahraman
, and
Felix Suntheim
How to prevent runs on open-end mutual funds? In recent years, markets have observed an innovation that changed the way open-end funds are priced. Alternative pricing rules (known as swing pricing) adjust funds’ net asset values to pass on funds’ trading costs to transacting shareholders. Using unique data on investor transactions in U.K. corporate bond funds, we show that swing pricing eliminates the first-mover advantage arising from the traditional pricing rule and significantly reduces redemptions during stress periods. The positive impact of alternative pricing rules on fund flows reverses in calm periods when costs associated with higher tracking error dominate the pricing effect.
Keywords:
WP; swing pricing; pricing rule; fund investor; adjustment factor; liquidity mismatch; fund runs; fragility; strategic complementarity; pricing mechanism; Liquidity risk; Flow of funds; Mutual funds; Corporate bonds; Price structures; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Sector Balance Sheet Strength and the Macro Economy
Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi
This paper introduces concepts of public sector balance sheet (PSBS) strength, taking into account different aspects of what governments own in addition to what they owe. It develops measures of PSBS strength and investigates their macroeconomic implications. Empirical estimations show that in their pricing of sovereign bonds, financial markets account for government assets and net worth in addition to their liabilities. Furthermore, economies with stronger public sector balance sheets experience shallower recessions and recover faster in the aftermath of economic downturns. This faster return to growth can be explained by the greater space for countercyclical fiscal policy in countries with stronger balance sheets.
Keywords:
WP; balance sheet; debt; balance sheet strength; Public sector balance sheet; Fiscal policy; Net financial worth; Net worth; balance sheet indicator; balance sheet measure; government balance sheets; balance sheet strength measure; balance sheet variable; balance sheet data; Financial statements; Bond yields; Yield curve; Sovereign bonds
Cover Policy Papers
Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust - 2016 Borrowing Agreements with Danmarks Nationalbank, the Norwegian Ministry of Finance Representing the Kingdom of Norway, and the Sveriges Riksbank
International Monetary Fund
The Fund, as Trustee of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT or Trust),entered into an amendment of the 2010 borrowing agreement with Danmarks Nationalbank, and new borrowing agreements with the Norwegian Ministry of Finance representing the Kingdom of Norway and the Sveriges Riksbank (hereafter Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, respectively), by which the counterparties will provide new resources to the Loan Accounts of the PRGT in the total amount of SDR 1.1 billion (see attachments). The augmentation under the amendment and the two new agreements are the first three loan contributions to be concluded in the context of the current Board-endorsed effort to raise SDR 11 billion in new PRGT loan resources. These amendment and new agreements became effective on November 17, 2016.
Keywords:
PP; trustee; amount; business day; bond equivalent yield; interest rate calculation; agreements result; SDR rate; loan resource; equivalent amount; Loans; Currencies; Bond yields; Poverty reduction and development; Treasury bills and bonds
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Linkages and Interconnectedness in the Norwegian Financial System
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Technical Note reviews linkages and interconnectedness in the Norwegian financial system for Norway. Norway’s banks have important connections with global financial centers, but regional links are also important. Norwegian banks are very dependent on global financial centers as sources of funding and to hedge currency risks. Cross-sectoral exposures of Norway’s banks, insurance companies, and real estate companies are significant and extend beyond the Nordic region. The authorities are encouraged to expand their current monitoring efforts of crossborder and cross-sectoral exposures of the Norwegian financial sector, and to conduct regional stress tests. For this effect, the authorities can resort to market data and, if available, to balance sheet data of exposures at the individual financial institution level.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; covered bond; stock index; market; bank stress; funding model; crossborder bank claim; funding structure; banks probability; market data; bank level; Norway's bank; Commercial banks; Covered bonds; Credit; Stocks; Spillovers; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Nordic Regional Report: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper elaborates findings and discussions of 2013 Cluster Consultation Nordic Regional report. The countries have close economic and financial ties and face some common challenges and shared risks, such as large banking sectors and high household debt. The economic performance of the four continental Nordic economies (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden—Nordic-4) ranks among the advanced economic development circle. It is analyzed that the large Nordic banking systems support relatively high levels of private sector debt. House price developments in the Nordic-4 pose a risk to broader macroeconomic stability in the context of strained household balance sheets.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; fund staff calculation; banking system; house price; bank assets; valuation gap; parent bank; asset price approach; bank capital buffer; banking sector; bank lending; fiscal policy; Housing prices; Commercial banks; Covered bonds; Housing; Disposable income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sweden: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation examines the performance of Sweden’s fiscal policies to counter effects of global financial crisis. Economic growth in Sweden has been moderate since global financial crisis of 2008–2009. The IMF report posits that with potential growth moderately weaker and the natural rate of unemployment to remain elevated, policies should focus on growth-enhancing reforms, especially in the labor market. It suggests that good policies that secure the soundness of Swedish international banking groups are expected to benefit borrowers not only in Sweden but across the region.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; bank; borrower; output gap; depositor; General government net lending; fund staff calculation; target rule; uninsured depositor; output gap estimate; cover pool; Contingent liabilities; Covered bonds; Housing prices; Fiscal space; Unemployment rate; Global; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macrofinancial Linkages of the Strategic Asset Allocation of Commodity-Based Sovereign Wealth Funds
Aaron Howard Clifford Brown
,
Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou
, and
Iva Petrova
This paper analyses the links between the investment strategies of a commodity-based SWF and the macroeconomic framework of the owner country. We examine some basic macrofinancial linkages of an SWF's strategic asset allocation (SAA) strategies with regard to the government budget, monetary policy, and exchange rate movements. Based on a simple Markowitz-model framework, which integrates the specific objectives and constraints facing an SWF and the country's specific characteristics and macroeconomic vulnerabilities (especially in relation to commodity prices and prospective defined liabilities), we derive an SAA. The asset-liability methodology that is applied in the selection of an SWF SAA also allows assessing whether (i) the SAA adequately takes into account the country-specific risks and vulnerabilities, and (ii) its objectives and macrofinancial constraints are consistent. Some analytical and practical issues in determining an SAA model are also discussed, along with key effects of a financial crisis.
Keywords:
WP; expected return; exchange rate; financial asset; Sovereign Wealth Funds; Strategic Asset Allocation; Macrofinancial Linkages; asset class; stabilization SWF; revenue gap; SWF asset portfolio; SWF asset performance; SWF asset investment; asset-liability management framework; SWF resource; commodity price; portfolio return; SWF assets; asset class correlation; Sovereign bonds; Currencies; Oil prices; Stocks; Exchange rates; Global