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Europe > Norway

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper provides an international perspective to the authorities’ two recent policy measures: setting up new savings and counter cyclical and climate infrastructure funds and reforming the judicial review of planning decisions in Ireland. The first essay presents international best practices in the design and operation of sovereign wealth funds that could inform the setup of the two new funds in Ireland. It highlights the importance of operating the funds within a strong fiscal policy framework. The second essay reviews Ireland’s planning and permitting system, underscoring the key elements that have hindered public investment. It also looks into the government’s proposed Bill to reform the planning system and contrasts its key features with those of other international jurisdictions. It finds that several issues may contribute to the inefficiencies in the planning and judicial review system, such as the loose standing requirements and lack of mandatory timelines related to judicial review, as well as institutional governance issues within the planning board, which the newly proposed reforms and legislative measures seek to address.
Keywords:
housing affordability; D. policy option; savings fund; modernizing judicial review; impulse response; Housing; Housing prices; Pension spending; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Europe
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2020, Europe
Whatever It Takes: Europe’s Response to COVID-19
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused dramatic loss of human life and major damage to the European economy, but thanks to an exceptionally strong policy response, potentially devastating outcomes have been avoided.

Keywords:
lockdowns; pandemic; corporate liquidity; recovery; reopening; economic outlook; forecasting; REO; policy support; infection curve; job retention program; Europe transform; financial market disruption; pandemic economy; solvency risks in Europe; time trend; reopening indices; infection incidence; reinfection risk; infection rate; credit access; containment policy; COVID-19; Liquidity; Solvency; Infrastructure; Europe; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Macroprudential Policies and House Prices in Europe
Mr. Marco Arena
,
Tingyun Chen
,
Mr. Seung M Choi
,
Ms. Nan Geng
,
Cheikh A. Gueye
,
Mr. Tonny Lybek
,
Mr. Evan Papageorgiou
, and
Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang
Macroprudential policy in Europe aligns with the objective of limiting systemic risk, namely the risk of widespread disruption to the provision of financial services that is caused by an impairment of all or parts of the financial system and that can cause serious negative consequences for the real economy.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; house price; credit growth; interest rate; tenure choice; housing price; mortgage; LTV; LTV ratio; property tax; terms diversity; tax relief; interest deductibility; credit bubble; housing price growth; house price growth; LTV requirement; LTV cap; Housing prices; Mortgages; Housing; Credit; Systemic risk; Europe; EuropeMacroprudential policy; house prices in EuropeMacroprudential policy
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper describes wages and competitiveness in Norway. Norway may have to downwardly revise its expectations for wage growth if it is to avoid a significant loss of competitiveness and manage the transition to a less oil-dependent economy. Norway was able to afford very high wage growth in the past (notwithstanding the noted challenges in several sectors) thanks to good fortune in its terms of trade. Going forward, it would be prudent not to count on being fortunate twice: wage moderation would help build resilience in case of less favorable trends in international prices. It would also help facilitate the needed transition out of oil by supporting sectors that did not benefit from past terms of trade gains. Communication from the government can continue to help in managing public expectations. Fiscal policy plays a key role in promoting competitiveness and containing the spending effect of Dutch Disease. After a prolonged expansion of fiscal policy—partly enabled by large valuation gains of the sovereign wealth fund—it is now appropriate to gradually start tightening fiscal policy. The ongoing up-cycle provides an ideal setting to get started on structural consolidation, which will ultimately be needed to face to address aging pressures.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Norway; house price; GDP; financial asset; IMF staff estimate; terms of trade gain; IFNW signal; mainland GDP; Housing prices; Asset prices; Wages; Asset bubbles; Housing; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth
Andreas Fagereng
,
Luigi Guiso
,
Mr. Davide Malacrino
, and
Luigi Pistaferri
We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial wealth distribution increases the return by 3 percentage points - and by 17 percentage points when the same exercise is performed for the return to net worth. Fourth, wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly reflects stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects persistent heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.
Keywords:
WP; private equity; expected return; long-term debt; wealth distribution; Wealth inequality; returns to wealth; net worth; heterogeneity; intergenerational mobility; financial wealth; wealth return regression; return heterogeneity; book value; portfolio return; assets return; heterogeneity channel; market value; risk tolerance; wealth share; return on assets; Income distribution; Stocks; Housing; Capital income; Income
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies
Ms. Nan Geng
House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.
Keywords:
WP; house price; price; housing price; Housing markets; House prices; Valuation gaps; OECD countries; understanding housing price development; asset price movement; price correction; valuation gap; interaction terms; housing investment; elasticities of housing supply; house price trend; long-run house price development; long-run house price trend; housing stock; Housing prices; Housing; Mortgages; Disposable income; Asset prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Norwegian economy is slowly recovering from the oil shock as domestic demand grew stronger aided by accommodative macroeconomic policies. Inflation declined recently owing to the pass-through of krone appreciation, but expectations remain well-anchored. In addition, banks remain profitable and well capitalized. Mainland growth is projected to increase from just below 1 percent in 2016 to 1.75 and 2.25 percent in 2017 and 2018 respectively, supported by the recovery of exports and stronger private demand. Inflation is projected to edge down further in pace with the unwinding of krone depreciation, before converging to the target over the medium term as trading-partner inflation rises.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; fiscal policy; debt; holding; housing market; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; inflation expectation; central government debt; trading-partner inflation rise; Housing prices; Inflation; Oil prices; Housing; Global
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, September 2015
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
The September 2015 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin covers a range of research topics. The Research Summaries featured in this issue are “Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States” (Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen) and “Economic Principles for Resource Revenue Management” (Anthony J. Venables and Samuel Wills). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financing for Development” (Amadou Sy) and the global development agenda. The issue also includes special announcements on the 2015 Annual Research Conference and the 2015 IMF Annual Report, as well as new IMF publications. Readers will also find a link to a top-viewed article from the “IMF Economic Review”—the IMF’s official research journal.
Keywords:
IRB; IMF research bulletin; anchor; research conference; journal of the IMF; research community; Policy instrument; Asia's financial systems; Infrastructure; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Central bank policy rate; Output gap; Consumption; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Asia and Pacific; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes Norway’s economy that has a maturing oil and gas industry. Norway’s half century of good fortune from its oil and gas wealth may have peaked. Oil and gas production will continue for many decades on current projections, but output and investment have flattened out, and the spillovers from the offshore oil and gas production to the mainland economy may have turned from positive to negative. Thus far, economic policy has needed to focus on managing the windfall, and Norway’s institutions have been a model for other countries. Going forward, the challenges are expected to become more complex.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; price; inflation; exchange rate; labor market; house price; household debt; commodity price inflation; oil price; extent exchange rate depreciation; Housing prices; Labor markets; Housing; Oil; Migration; Global; Eastern Europe; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Making the Most of Public Investment in MENA and CCA Oil-Exporting Countries
Ms. Maria A Albino
,
Ms. Svetlana Cerovic
,
Mr. Francesco Grigoli
,
Mr. Juan C Flores
,
Mr. Javier Kapsoli
,
Mr. Haonan Qu
,
Mr. Yahia Said
,
Mr. Bahrom Shukurov
,
Mr. Martin Sommer
, and
Mr. SeokHyun Yoon
Over the past decade, rising oil prices have translated into high levels of public investment in most MENA and CCA oil exporters. This has prompted questions about the efficiency of public investment in generating growth and closing infrastructure gaps, as well as concerns about fiscal vulnerabilities. When public investment is inefficient, higher levels of spending may simply lead to larger budget deficits, without sufficiency increasing the quantity or quality of public infrastructure in support of economic growth. This paper examines the efficiency of public investment in the MENA and CCA oil exporters using several techniques, including a novel application of the efficiency frontier analysis, estimates of unit investment costs, and assessments of public investment processes. The analysis confirms that these oil exporters have substantial room to improve public investment efficiency. Reforms in the public financial and investment management systems are needed to achieve this objective.
Keywords:
SDN; investment; MCDOEs; investment efficiency; efficiency; public investment