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Europe > Norway

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

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  • Balance of payments x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries
Mr. Rabah Arezki
,
Valerie A Ramey
, and
Liugang Sheng
This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
Keywords:
WP; open economy; substitution effect; oil; news shocks; current account and business cycles; investment-GDP ratio; oil discovery; ratio decrease; account-GDP ratio; saving-GDP ratio; anticipation effect; Current account; Oil production; Oil sector; Consumption; Middle East; Global; North Africa
Cover IEO Annual Report 2012
IEO Annual Report 2012
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) Annual Report 2012 presents an overview of overall developments in FY2012. In FY2012, the IEO expended approximately 97 percent of its total budgetary resources, including the approved budget amount and the resources carried forward from FY2011 as authorized. Vacancies amounted to about one and one-half staff years over the course of the financial year. This level of vacancies is within the range of what could be expected in a small organization with structural difficulties in recruitment and retention.

Keywords:
IEOR; IEO; evaluation; IEO expenditure; IMF research; IEO evaluation; IMF surveillance; Board-endorsed IEO recommendation; IMF performance; Budget planning and preparation; Macrofinancial linkages; International reserves; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Central America; Africa; Caribbean; IEO recommendation
Cover IMF Working Papers
Exchange Rate Assessments: Methodologies for Oil Exporting Countries
Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho
and
Mr. Rudolfs Bems
Are the current account fluctuations in oil-exporting countries "excessive"? How should their real exchange rate respond to the evolution of external (and domestic) fundamentals? This paper proposes methodologies tailored to the specific features of oil-exporting countries that help address these questions. Price-based methodologies (based on the time series of real effective exchange rates) identify a strong link between the real exchange rate and the terms of trade, but have relatively limited explanatory power. On the other hand, an empirical model of the current account, which fits oil exporting countries' data well, and an intertemporal model that takes into account the stock of oil reserves provide useful benchmarks for oil exporters' external balances.
Keywords:
WP; oil exporter; growth rate; terms of trade; oil-exporting country
Cover Policy Papers
Borrowing Agreement with Norges Bank
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents for the approval of the Executive Board a draft borrowing agreement between Norges Bank and the Fund. On March 28, the Finance Minister of Norway announced that the Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank (the central bank of Norway) were exploring a possible Norwegian contribution of up to 30 billion Norwegian kroner (about US$4.5 billion or SDR 3 billion) of financial resources to the IMF to support the Fund’s ability to provide timely and effective balance of payments assistance to its members in the current crisis. Staff and Norges Bank representatives have now reached agreement on a draft borrowing agreement, the text of which is set forth in the Attachment (“the Agreement”).
Keywords:
PP; agreement; Japan agreement; Japan; fund; borrowing agreement; agreement of Norges Bank; draft agreement; term of the agreement; NAB decision; Balance of payments assistance; Lines of credit; Liquidity management; SDR interest rate; Resource management in revenue administration
Cover IMF Working Papers
Current Account and Precautionary Savings for Exporters of Exhaustible Resources
Mr. Rudolfs Bems
and
Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho
Exporters of exhaustible resources have historically exhibited higher income volatility than other economies, suggesting a heightened role for precautionary savings. This paper uses a parameterized small open economy model to quantify the role of precautionary savings in economies with exhaustible resources, when the only source of uncertainty is the price of the exhaustible resource. Results show that the precautionary motive can generate sizable external sector savings. When aggregated over the sample countries, precautionary savings in 2006 add up to 3.2 percent of GDP. The quantitative importance of the precautionary motive varies considerably across the sample countries and is driven primarily by the weight of exhaustible resource revenues in future income. The parameterized model fares well at capturing current account balances in both cross-section and time-series data.
Keywords:
WP; precautionary saving; interest rate; open economy
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating Iceland’s Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate
Mr. Robert Tchaidze
Given recent developments in Iceland, this paper evaluates its real exchange rate disequilibrium. It discusses three approaches to estimating the equilibrium values and suggests that the adjustment needed to bring the real exchange rate in line with fundamentals is in the range of 15-25 percent, although timing and manner of this adjustment is unclear.
Keywords:
WP; REER; GDP
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module
International Monetary Fund
As will become apparent in the assessments, Norway’s membership in the European Statistical System shapes Norwegian official statistics and statistical policy in a number of ways. Norway produces and disseminates a significant share of its data consistent with the legal requirements of the system. Norway’s macroeconomic statistics are of generally high quality. They are adequate to conduct effective surveillance, although the mission (held in Oslo during November 11–26, 2002, by the IMF Statistics Department) identified some shortcomings that may detract from the accurate and timely analysis of economic and financial developments and the formulation of appropriate policy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ROSC exercise; ROSC package; finalized Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes; IMF's website; IMF Statistics Department in Oslo; Balance of payments statistics; Consumer price indexes; Fiscal accounting and reporting; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
International Stock Returns and Market Integration: A Regional Perspective
Mr. Marco Del Negro
and
Mr. Robin Brooks
We investigate the relative importance of country and industry effects in international stock returns, with the innovation that we decompose country effects into region and within-region country effects. We divide the global stock market into the Americas, Asia, and Europe and find that most of the variation explained by country effects is actually due to region effects. Over time, these region effects have fallen. Within regions, however, only in Europe has segmentation declined, while it has increased elsewhere. Europe is also the only region where industry effects are now robustly more important than country effects.
Keywords:
WP; TMT firm; U.S. dollar; mean absolute deviations; dummy variable; stock portfolio; Diversification; risk; international financial markets; industrial structure; region effect; portfolio manager; Stock markets; Stocks; Market capitalization; Capital account; North American Free Trade Agreement; Europe; Global; Asia and Pacific; Western Europe; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper reviews the main elements of the National Insurance Scheme (NIS) and the Family Allowance Scheme (FAS) in Norway and provides projections of future pension expenditures. All persons residing or working in Norway are insured under the NIS, and the system is financed on a pay-as-you-go basis through contributions and from general tax revenue. The paper demonstrates that indexing pensions to wages, in line with recent practice, would result in a large net liability by the year 2050, which could be reduced by indexing pensions instead to consumer prices.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; pension; exchange rate; SPF assets; import price equation; asset ratio; import-price deflator; exchange rate targeting; export-price deflator; SPF currency basket; Pensions; Pension spending; Exchange rates; Inflation targeting; Aging; Global; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; North America; Northern Europe