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Leandro Medina
The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has raised concerns about the impact of volatile commodity prices on Latin American countries’ fiscal positions. Using a novel quarterly data set-which includes unique country-specific commodity price indices and a comprehensive measure of public expenditures-this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of commodity price fluctuations on fiscal revenues and expenditures for eight commodity-exporting Latin American countries. The results indicate that Latin American countries’ fiscal positions react strongly to shocks to commodity prices, yet there are marked differences across countries. Fiscal variables in Venezuela display the highest sensitivity to commodity price shocks, with expenditures reacting significantly more than revenues. At the other end of the spectrum, in Chile expenditure reacts very little to commodity price fluctuations, and the dynamic responses of its fiscal indicators are very similar to those seen in high-income commodity-exporting countries. This distinct behavior across countries may relate to institutional arrangements, which in some cases include the efficient application of fiscal rules amid political commitment and high standards of transparency.
Ms. Kornelia Krajnyak
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Mr. Volodymyr Tulin
In this paper, we derive two new measures of international relative prices for Norway. Developments in these new measures follow rather closely movements in the CPI-based real effective exchange rate through the 1990s, but diverge after 2000—suggesting that the costs of living in Norway relative to its trading partners have risen in the recent years more than the real effective exchange rate would indicate.
Ms. Silvia Sgherri
Under a flexible inflation targeting regime, should policymakers avoid any reaction to movements in the foreign exchange market? Using data for six advanced open economies explicitly targeting inflation, the paper examines empirically whether real exchange rate disequilibria systematically affect the conduct of monetary policy. Estimates indicate that monetary policy responses in inflation-targeting, open economies have changed significantly, as the institutional framework for the conduct of monetary policy has evolved. In particular, an explicit target for core inflation and a greater use of the expectation channel of monetary policy appear to be key features of the newest policy framework. In this context, central banks are unlikely to react to regular fluctuations in the exchange rate.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper analyzes inflation in Norway with a view to shedding light on this surprising development and the possible near-term course of inflation, using statistical and econometric analyses. The paper reviews recent developments of monetary policy and inflation in Norway, applies statistical and econometric tools to identify factors influencing inflation, and describes the implications of the analysis for policymaking. Using data for six advanced small open economies explicitly targeting inflation, the paper examines empirically whether deviations of the exchange rate from their equilibrium levels systematically affect the conduct of monetary policy.
International Monetary Fund
As will become apparent in the assessments, Norway’s membership in the European Statistical System shapes Norwegian official statistics and statistical policy in a number of ways. Norway produces and disseminates a significant share of its data consistent with the legal requirements of the system. Norway’s macroeconomic statistics are of generally high quality. They are adequate to conduct effective surveillance, although the mission (held in Oslo during November 11–26, 2002, by the IMF Statistics Department) identified some shortcomings that may detract from the accurate and timely analysis of economic and financial developments and the formulation of appropriate policy.
Mr. Kimberly D. Zieschang
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Mr. Jemma Dridi
Export and import price indices are essential for assessing the impact of international trade on the domestic economy. Among their most important uses are analyzing developments in the trade balance, measuring foreign prices' contribution to domestic inflation, and deflating nominal values of exports and imports for estimating the volume of gross domestic product. This paper discusses the main uses of trade indices and the data sources used to compile them. It also presents various approaches used to compile foreign trade price indices, addresses various problems encountered in developing these indices, and provides some recommendations on how to address them.
Mr. Jarkko Soikkeli
Norway adopted an inflation targeting framework in early 2001, thus concluding its gradual but consistent move toward greater exchange rate flexibility. This paper assesses the institutional and technical design of the framework, as well as its potential implications for the practical implementation of monetary policy against the experience from selected industrial countries that had adopted inflation targeting frameworks prior to Norway. Norway's role as a commodity exporter exposed to large terms of trade shocks, and the possible consequences of newly introduced fiscal guidelines are also discussed.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper presents an assessment of Norway’s inflation targeting framework. It describes the institutional framework, and reviews accountability and transparency of the central bank as well as its communication with the public. The paper discusses the design of the framework, and the monetary transmission. It concludes that the institutional framework is appropriate for successful implementation of monetary policy. The new framework provides a more flexible monetary regime that is consistent with Norway’s overall economic policy framework.
Hilde C. Bjørnland
This paper estimates core inflation in Norway, identified as that component of inflation that has no long-run effect on GDP. The model distinguishes explicitly between domestic and imported core inflation. The results show that (domestic) core inflation is the main component of CPI inflation. CPI inflation, however, misrepresents core inflation in some periods. The differences are well explained by the other shocks identified in the model, in particular the oil price shocks of the 1970s when Norway imported inflation, and the negative noncore (supply) shocks of the late 1980s, which pushed inflation up temporarily relative to core inflation.