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Europe > Norway

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 29 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects x
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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Norway
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that boosting labor supply, containing public expenditure pressures, and raising productivity will be required for Norway to be able to continue its strong economic performance and preserve its welfare model. A recent White Paper by the Ministry of Finance rightly raises these key issues facing Norway’s economy in the longer term. Real gross domestic product growth slowed in 2023 and is expected to gradually rebound in the near term as private domestic demand strengthens supported by higher real incomes. Tight macroprudential policies should remain in place to mitigate systemic vulnerabilities. The financial system appears resilient and banking system buffers are strong. Long-term fiscal challenges should be more forcefully addressed. Norway has the largest proportion of the population on disability-related benefits among the organisation for economic co-operation and development countries, and reforming costly and distortionary social benefit systems is possibly the most important and politically difficult reform pending. Although Norway boasts one of the highest levels of labor productivity among its peers, it has slowed faster than in other countries. To reverse this trend, conditions should be improved to facilitate sectoral reallocation as well as innovation and technology adoption.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; holdings of SDR; monetary policy stance; inflation pressure; consumer price inflation; Inflation; Labor markets; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Central Bank Exit Strategies Domestic Transmission and International Spillovers
Christopher J. Erceg
,
Marcin Kolasa
,
Jesper Lindé
,
Haroon Mumtaz
, and
Pawel Zabczyk
We study alternative approaches to the withdrawal of prolonged unconventional monetary stimulus (“exit strategies”) by central banks in large, advanced economies. We first show empirically that large-scale asset purchases affect the exchange rate and domestic and foreign term premiums more strongly than conventional short-term policy rate changes when normalizing by the effects on domestic GDP. We then build a two-country New Keynesian model that features segmented bond markets, cognitive discounting and strategic complementarities in price setting that is consistent with these findings. The model implies that quantitative easing (QE) is the only effective way to provide monetary stimulus when policy rates are persistently constrained by the effective lower bound, and that QE is likely to have larger domestic output effects than quantitative tightening (QT). We demonstrate that “exit strategies” by large advanced economies that rely heavily on QT can trigger sizeable inflation-output tradeoffs in foreign recipient economies through the exchange rate and term premium channels. We also show that these tradeoffs are likely to be stronger in emerging market economies, especially those with fixed exchange rates.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Quantitative Easing; International Spillovers; asset purchase; central bank exit strategies; inflation surge scenario; Policy conduct; appendix E. term premium; open economy; Central bank policy rate; Inflation; Unconventional monetary policies; Bonds; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Sweden: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes inflation developments, drivers, and risks in Sweden. Inflation in Sweden started rising sharply from June 2022. Using dynamic simulations of an estimated Sweden-specific Phillips curve (PC), the team assess the role of external factors in driving recent inflation. Several factors that are poorly captured in the PC analysis, may account for the rise in unexplained inflation. Illustrative risk scenarios confirm a wide range of possible inflation paths on either direction. Renewed commodity price shocks and smaller-than-estimated slack could delay the return of inflation to target. Increasing inflation expectations, including because of renewed exchange rate pressures, would also feed into higher inflation. Core inflation could be sticker if the price setting becomes de-anchored or more backward looking. Growth in the gross domestic product deflator (as one measure of inflation) can be decomposed into three components—profits, labor costs, and taxes—to assess inflationary pressures in the economy.
Keywords:
Citi Sweden inflation surprise Index; EA inflation driver; inflation expectation; monetary policy transmission; inflation development; Inflation; Unconventional monetary policies; Currencies; Consumer price indexes; Nominal effective exchange rate; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monetary Policy Pass-Through to Interest Rates: Stylized Facts from 30 European Countries
Robert C. M. Beyer
,
Ruo Chen
,
Florian Misch
,
Claire Li
,
Ezgi O. Ozturk
, and
Lev Ratnovski
The extent to which changes in monetary policy rates lead to changes in loan and deposit rates for households and firms, referred to as ‘pass-through’, is an important ingredient of monetary policy transmission to output and prices. Using data on seven different bank interest rates in 30 European countries, different approaches, and the full sample as well as a subsample of euro area countries, we show that a) the pass-through in the post-pandemic hiking cycle has been heterogenous across countries and types of interest rates; b) the pass-through has generally been weaker and slower, except for rates of non-financial corporation loans and time deposits in euro area countries; c) differences in pass-through over time and across countries for most deposit rates are correlated with financial sector concentration, liquidity, and loan opportunities, and d) the effects of pass-through to outstanding mortgage rates on monetary transmission on prices and output are heterogenous across countries.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy Transmission; Monetary Policy Pass-Through; NFC loan rate; pass-through to rate; transmission to output; Deposit rates; Central bank policy rate; Mortgages; Loans; Financial sector; Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust—2023 Borrowing Agreements with the Government of Australia, the People’s Bank of China, the Bank of Finland, the Banque De France, De Nederlandsche Bank NV, the Norwegian Ministry of Finance Representing the Kingdom of Norway, Sveriges Riksbank, and the Government of the United Kingdom
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents the second set of PRGT borrowing agreements that have been finalized through April 2023 as part of the loan mobilization round launched in July 2021 to cover the cost of pandemic-related lending and support the self-sustainability of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT). Seven of the eight agreements presented use SDRs in the context of SDR channeling. Together these agreements provide a total of SDR 5.1 billion in new PRGT loan resources for low-income countries (LICs).
Keywords:
PRGT Borrowing agreements; PRGT Loans; Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT); Concessional financing; Resource adequacy; PRGT Funding; Contributions; Transparency policy; SDR equivalent; channeling pledge; totaling SDR; PRGT loan disbursement; loan resource; Loans; Poverty reduction strategy; SDR interest rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Norway grew strongly in 2022 but the pace of output growth receded somewhat this year. Record-high energy and food prices together with much higher interest rates put pressure on households’ purchasing power. Nonetheless, mainland gross domestic product growth is still expected to be positive, supported by strong business investment and exports. Norway experienced one of the highest growth rates among advanced economies last year, and risks remain balanced. Growth is continuing but at a more modest pace. The country has experienced windfall gains from high petroleum and natural gas prices that have so far countered global headwinds. The banking system is strong but tightening global conditions pose risks. Risks to financial stability appear to be broadly manageable, but continued vigilance is needed given the heightened uncertainty. Progress on structural reforms has been piecemeal. Some steps have been taken in further upskilling the workforce, including increased vocational training and the planned introduction of a youth guarantee scheme.
Keywords:
money market rate; inflation risk; liability positions vis-a-vis nonresident; inflation expectation; mainland GDP growth; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Central bank policy rate; Consumption; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Did Insurers Become Risk-Loving During “Low-for-Long”? The Role of Returns, Ratings, and Regulation
Jeroen Brinkhoff
and
Mr. Juan Sole
European life insurance companies are important bond investors and had traditionally played a stabilizing role in financial markets by pursuing “buy-and-hold” investment strategies. However, since the onset of the ultra-low interest rates era in 2008, observers noted a decline in the credit quality of insurers’ bond portfolios. The commonly-held explanation for this deterioration is that low returns pushed insurers to become more risk-taking. We argue that other factors—such as surging rating downgrades, bond revaluations, and regulatory changes—also played a key role. We estimate that rating changes, revaluations, and search for yield each account for about one-third each of the total deterioration in credit quality. This result has important policy implications as it reestablishes the view that insurers’ investment behavior tends to be passive through the cycle—rather than risk-seeking.
Keywords:
Life Insurance sector; financial stability; credit ratings; bond revaluation; life insurance insurance company; bond portfolio; investment behavior; bond investor; Bonds; Insurance companies; Corporate bonds; Sovereign bonds; Bond ratings; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Revisiting the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Through an Industry-Level Differential Approach
Sangyup Choi
,
Tim Willems
, and
Seung Yong Yoo
We combine industry-level data on output and prices with monetary policy shock estimates for 105 countries to analyze how the effects of monetary policy vary with industry characteristics. Next to being interesting in their own right, our findings are informative on the importance of various transmission mechanisms (as they are thought to vary systematically with the included characteristics). Results suggest that monetary contractions reduce output by more in industries featuring assets that are more difficult to collateralize, consistent with the credit channel, followed by industries producing durables, as predicted by the interest rate channel. The credit channel is stronger during bad times as well as in countries with lower levels of financial development, in line with financial accelerator logic. We do not find support for the cost channel of monetary policy, nor for a channel running via exports. Our database (containing estimated monetary policy shocks for over 170 countries) may be of independent interest to researchers.
Keywords:
Monetary policy transmission; Industry growth; Financial frictions; Asymmetry in transmissions; balance sheet channel; channel of monetary policy; differential approach; IMF working papers; monetary policy stance; Financial statements; Central bank policy rate; Exchange rates; Monetary tightening; Export fluctuations; Global; credit channel; monetary policy shock; effects of monetary policy; x MPS; shock series; Credit; Financial sector development
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Sector Balance Sheet Strength and the Macro Economy
Mr. Seyed Reza Yousefi
This paper introduces concepts of public sector balance sheet (PSBS) strength, taking into account different aspects of what governments own in addition to what they owe. It develops measures of PSBS strength and investigates their macroeconomic implications. Empirical estimations show that in their pricing of sovereign bonds, financial markets account for government assets and net worth in addition to their liabilities. Furthermore, economies with stronger public sector balance sheets experience shallower recessions and recover faster in the aftermath of economic downturns. This faster return to growth can be explained by the greater space for countercyclical fiscal policy in countries with stronger balance sheets.
Keywords:
WP; balance sheet; debt; balance sheet strength; Public sector balance sheet; Fiscal policy; Net financial worth; Net worth; balance sheet indicator; balance sheet measure; government balance sheets; balance sheet strength measure; balance sheet variable; balance sheet data; Financial statements; Bond yields; Yield curve; Sovereign bonds
Cover IMF Working Papers
Covered Interest Parity Deviations: Macrofinancial Determinants
Mr. Eugenio M Cerutti
,
Mr. Maurice Obstfeld
, and
Haonan Zhou
For about three decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely—even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macrofinancial drivers of the variation in CIP deviations have also become significant. The variation in CIP deviations seems to be associated with multiple factors, not only regulatory changes. Most of these do not display a uniform importance across currency pairs and time, and some are associated with possible temporary considerations (such as asynchronous monetary policy cycles).
Keywords:
WP; U.S. dollar; cross-currency basis; cross-currency dollar basis; basis calculation; Covered Interest Parity; Interest Rate Differentials; Forward FX Market; dollar strength; investment option; time-series regression; dollar appreciation; Interest rate parity; Currencies; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Interbank rates; Money markets; Global