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Europe > Norway

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 24 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper provides an international perspective to the authorities’ two recent policy measures: setting up new savings and counter cyclical and climate infrastructure funds and reforming the judicial review of planning decisions in Ireland. The first essay presents international best practices in the design and operation of sovereign wealth funds that could inform the setup of the two new funds in Ireland. It highlights the importance of operating the funds within a strong fiscal policy framework. The second essay reviews Ireland’s planning and permitting system, underscoring the key elements that have hindered public investment. It also looks into the government’s proposed Bill to reform the planning system and contrasts its key features with those of other international jurisdictions. It finds that several issues may contribute to the inefficiencies in the planning and judicial review system, such as the loose standing requirements and lack of mandatory timelines related to judicial review, as well as institutional governance issues within the planning board, which the newly proposed reforms and legislative measures seek to address.
Keywords:
housing affordability; D. policy option; savings fund; modernizing judicial review; impulse response; Housing; Housing prices; Pension spending; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Micro-Assessment of Macroprudential Borrower-Based Measures in Lithuania
Mantas Dirma
and
Jaunius Karmelavičius
Despite having introduced borrower-based measures (BBM), Lithuania's housing and mortgage markets were booming during the low-interest-rate period, casting doubt on the macroprudential toolkit's ability to contain excessive mortgage growth. This paper assesses the adequacy of BBMs’ parametrization in Lithuania. We do so by building a novel lifetime expected credit loss framework that is founded on actual loan-level default and household income data. We show that the BBM package effectively contains mortgage credit risk and that housing loans are more resilient to stress than in the preregulatory era. Our BBM limit calibration exercise reveals that (1) in the low-rate environment, income-based measures could have been tighter; and (2) borrowers taking out secondary mortgages rightly are and should be required to pledge a higher down payment.
Keywords:
macroprudential policy; borrower-based measures; LTV; mortgage credit risk; lifetime expected loss; probability of default.; calibration exercise; BBM package; modeling mortgage risk; Lithuania's housing market; Mortgages; Loans; Credit risk; Housing prices; Macroprudential policy instruments; Europe; Baltics; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Macroprudential Policies and House Prices in Europe
Mr. Marco Arena
,
Tingyun Chen
,
Mr. Seung M Choi
,
Ms. Nan Geng
,
Cheikh A. Gueye
,
Mr. Tonny Lybek
,
Mr. Evan Papageorgiou
, and
Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang
Macroprudential policy in Europe aligns with the objective of limiting systemic risk, namely the risk of widespread disruption to the provision of financial services that is caused by an impairment of all or parts of the financial system and that can cause serious negative consequences for the real economy.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; house price; credit growth; interest rate; tenure choice; housing price; mortgage; LTV; LTV ratio; property tax; terms diversity; tax relief; interest deductibility; credit bubble; housing price growth; house price growth; LTV requirement; LTV cap; Housing prices; Mortgages; Housing; Credit; Systemic risk; Europe; EuropeMacroprudential policy; house prices in EuropeMacroprudential policy
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Norway
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
While many advanced economies are experiencing slower growth, Norway’s output has continued to expand strongly, helped by a robust labor market, positive terms of trade, and some competitiveness gains. Core inflation has picked up to close to 2¼ percent. Residential house price growth has softened significantly but prices remain overvalued, and household debt continues to rise. Commercial real estate risks are also intensifying and combine with mounting external risks to cloud the outlook. The Christian Democrats have recently joined Prime Minister Solberg’s governing coalition, which now enjoys a majority in parliament.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; rate; authority; debt; fiscal policy; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; mainland GDP; household debt-sustainability; exchange arrangement; further rate hike; property price growth; monetary policy normalization; expenditure saving; core inflation; Housing prices; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Inflation; Labor markets; Employment; Global; Baltics; transparency policy; article IV of the IMF's article; money market rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; OOH cost; Iceland fish catch; CPIXH inflation; Iceland fishing quota holder; inflation index; CPI inflation; benchmark index; Agroindustries; Inflation; Inflation targeting; Consumer price indexes; Housing prices; Global; Australia and New Zealand
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Europe
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2018, Europe
Domestic Expansion Running into External Turbulence
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Economic activity continued to expand in the first half of 2018, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace, mainly in advanced Europe. Domestic demand, supported by stronger employment and wages, remains the main engine of growth. However, the external environment has become less supportive and is expected to soften further in 2019 owing to slowing global demand, trade tensions, and higher energy prices. Tighter financial conditions in vulnerable emerging market economies and maturing business cycles are also weighing on activity. Accordingly, growth is projected to moderate from 2.8 percent in 2017 to 2.3 percent in 2018 and 1.9 percent in 2019. That said, it is expected to remain above potential in most countries in the region.

Keywords:
REO; monetary policy priority; credit growth; inflation pressure; financial condition; house price increase; policy space; Housing prices; Mortgages; Consumer credit; Macroprudential policy instruments; Inflation; Europe; Global; IMF staff calculation; trade openness; LTV cap; EU funds; asset price overvaluation; Credit
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper describes wages and competitiveness in Norway. Norway may have to downwardly revise its expectations for wage growth if it is to avoid a significant loss of competitiveness and manage the transition to a less oil-dependent economy. Norway was able to afford very high wage growth in the past (notwithstanding the noted challenges in several sectors) thanks to good fortune in its terms of trade. Going forward, it would be prudent not to count on being fortunate twice: wage moderation would help build resilience in case of less favorable trends in international prices. It would also help facilitate the needed transition out of oil by supporting sectors that did not benefit from past terms of trade gains. Communication from the government can continue to help in managing public expectations. Fiscal policy plays a key role in promoting competitiveness and containing the spending effect of Dutch Disease. After a prolonged expansion of fiscal policy—partly enabled by large valuation gains of the sovereign wealth fund—it is now appropriate to gradually start tightening fiscal policy. The ongoing up-cycle provides an ideal setting to get started on structural consolidation, which will ultimately be needed to face to address aging pressures.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Norway; house price; GDP; financial asset; IMF staff estimate; terms of trade gain; IFNW signal; mainland GDP; Housing prices; Asset prices; Wages; Asset bubbles; Housing; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Norway
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Norway is in the midst of a healthy recovery from the oil downturn, supported by positive trends in oil prices and a strengthening labor market. In addition, banks remain profitable and well capitalized. However, household debt continues to increase and house prices have resumed their rise, especially in the Oslo area, after a correction during 2017. Mainland growth is projected to increase from 2 percent in 2017 to 2.5 percent in each 2018 and 2019, underpinned by solid consumption, stronger business investment and an export recovery. Petroleum investment will also pick up. As a result, output will likely start to exceed potential in 2019.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; government; output gap; exchange arrangement; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; headline inflation; mainland GDP; price growth; core inflation; Housing prices; Labor markets; Wages; Oil; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fundamental Drivers of House Prices in Advanced Economies
Ms. Nan Geng
House prices in many advanced economies have risen substantially in recent decades. But experience indicates that housing prices can diverge from their long-run equilibrium or sustainable levels, potentially followed by adjustments that impact macroeconomic and financial stability. Therefore there is a need to monitor house prices and assess whether they are sustainable. This paper focuses on fundamentals expected to drive long run trends in house prices, including institutional and structural factors. The scale of potential valuation gaps is gauged on the basis of a cross-country panel analysis of house prices in 20 OECD countries.
Keywords:
WP; house price; price; housing price; Housing markets; House prices; Valuation gaps; OECD countries; understanding housing price development; asset price movement; price correction; valuation gap; interaction terms; housing investment; elasticities of housing supply; house price trend; long-run house price development; long-run house price trend; housing stock; Housing prices; Housing; Mortgages; Disposable income; Asset prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2017 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Norwegian economy is slowly recovering from the oil shock as domestic demand grew stronger aided by accommodative macroeconomic policies. Inflation declined recently owing to the pass-through of krone appreciation, but expectations remain well-anchored. In addition, banks remain profitable and well capitalized. Mainland growth is projected to increase from just below 1 percent in 2016 to 1.75 and 2.25 percent in 2017 and 2018 respectively, supported by the recovery of exports and stronger private demand. Inflation is projected to edge down further in pace with the unwinding of krone depreciation, before converging to the target over the medium term as trading-partner inflation rises.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; fiscal policy; debt; holding; housing market; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; inflation expectation; central government debt; trading-partner inflation rise; Housing prices; Inflation; Oil prices; Housing; Global