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Europe > Norway

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Norway
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that boosting labor supply, containing public expenditure pressures, and raising productivity will be required for Norway to be able to continue its strong economic performance and preserve its welfare model. A recent White Paper by the Ministry of Finance rightly raises these key issues facing Norway’s economy in the longer term. Real gross domestic product growth slowed in 2023 and is expected to gradually rebound in the near term as private domestic demand strengthens supported by higher real incomes. Tight macroprudential policies should remain in place to mitigate systemic vulnerabilities. The financial system appears resilient and banking system buffers are strong. Long-term fiscal challenges should be more forcefully addressed. Norway has the largest proportion of the population on disability-related benefits among the organisation for economic co-operation and development countries, and reforming costly and distortionary social benefit systems is possibly the most important and politically difficult reform pending. Although Norway boasts one of the highest levels of labor productivity among its peers, it has slowed faster than in other countries. To reverse this trend, conditions should be improved to facilitate sectoral reallocation as well as innovation and technology adoption.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; holdings of SDR; monetary policy stance; inflation pressure; consumer price inflation; Inflation; Labor markets; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper provides an international perspective to the authorities’ two recent policy measures: setting up new savings and counter cyclical and climate infrastructure funds and reforming the judicial review of planning decisions in Ireland. The first essay presents international best practices in the design and operation of sovereign wealth funds that could inform the setup of the two new funds in Ireland. It highlights the importance of operating the funds within a strong fiscal policy framework. The second essay reviews Ireland’s planning and permitting system, underscoring the key elements that have hindered public investment. It also looks into the government’s proposed Bill to reform the planning system and contrasts its key features with those of other international jurisdictions. It finds that several issues may contribute to the inefficiencies in the planning and judicial review system, such as the loose standing requirements and lack of mandatory timelines related to judicial review, as well as institutional governance issues within the planning board, which the newly proposed reforms and legislative measures seek to address.
Keywords:
housing affordability; D. policy option; savings fund; modernizing judicial review; impulse response; Housing; Housing prices; Pension spending; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A New Fiscal Framework for Resource-Rich Countries
Mr. Luc Eyraud
,
William Gbohoui
, and
Mr. Paulo A Medas
This paper revisits the debate on the design of fiscal rules in resource-rich countries. Its main objective is to assess alternative systems of rules against their policy objectives, while taking into account country characteristics. One of the contributions of the paper is to propose fiscal frameworks that are centered around the principle of insurance against shocks and less reliant on estimating precisely resource wealth, which tends to be highly volatile.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Rules; Non-Renewable resources; Resource Funds; Nonrenewable Resource Exporting Countries; resource wealth; personal income hypothesis; financial assets floor; IMF working paper 23/230; net financial assets; policy objective; resource revenue; Natural resources; Commodity prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Norway
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The economy bounced back strongly from the first wave of Covid-19 pandemic, and the recovery is well entrenched in 2022. However, risks to the outlook are considerable, given the uncertainty over spillovers from the war in Ukraine, the intensity of the pandemic globally, and in Europe, in particular, and supply bottlenecks. Given the strong fundamentals, Norway is relatively shielded and there are both upside (higher energy prices and export volumes) and downside risks (lower demand from Europe for non-energy exports). The forecast is especially sensitive to where energy prices settle, whether energy supply to Europe will be disrupted, and Norway’s capacity to increase gas supplies to Europe.
Keywords:
liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; money market rate; inflation pressure; normalising economy; core inflation; Inflation; Mortgages; Climate change; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Staff Statement
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Norway’s key challenge is to get the right balance of support for recovery and adjustment until the crisis is firmly in its past. The authorities intend to continue exceptional policy support into 2021, adjusted to reflect the rebound in economic activity and pace of vaccinations in the second half of the year, and with better targeting to affected sectors. This will support the expected closing of the output gap by 2023 and help mitigate scarring, while also facilitating reallocation of capital and labor.
Keywords:
staff appraisal; corona crisis; mainland GDP; staff representative; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; COVID-19; Loans; Fiscal stance; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Denmark: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Insurance Regulation and Supervision
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Denmark’s insurance sector is highly developed with a particularly high penetration and density in the life sector. Traditionally, work-related life insurance and pension savings are offered as a combined package, and life insurance companies dominate the market for mandatory pension schemes for employees. The high penetration explains the overall size of the insurance sector, which exceeds those of peers from other Nordic countries and various other EU member states. Assets managed by the insurance industry amounted to 146 percent of the GDP at end-2018, compared to 72 percent for the EU average.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; risk assessment; business intelligence tool; insurance undertaking; DFSA plan; DFSA data; DFSA staff; DFSA supervision; insurance sector; insurance supervisor; covered bond; Insurance companies; Insurance; Solvency; Pension spending; Insurance supervision; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Sector Balance Sheet Database: Overview and Guide for Compilers and Users
Mr. Miguel A Alves
,
Mrs. Sage De Clerck
, and
Juliana Gamboa-Arbelaez
This paper provides an overview of the Public Sector Balance Sheet (PSBS) Database, a dataset developed in the context of the October 2018 Fiscal Monitor. The dataset provides a comprehensive picture of public wealth for 38 countries, and a narrower picture for further 37 countries and territories. Comprehensive PSBSs bring together all the accumulated assets and liabilities that governments control, including public corporations, natural resources, and pension liabilities. They therefore account for the entirety of what the state owns and owes, offering a broader fiscal picture beyond debt and deficits. This is particularly relevant in the current context of record and still rising debts and heightened risks to the balance sheet of the public sector. PSBSs bring about greater transparency and allow closer scrutiny of government’s financial position. They also allow better balance sheet management, thereby potentially increasing return on assets, reducing risks and the costs of borrowing, and improving fiscal policymaking. The paper also elaborates on the conceptual framework and methodology used in compiling the data, and provides some practical guidelines on the compilation, validation, and dissemination of such data.
Keywords:
WP; accounts payable; PSBS database; low income; return on assets; accounts receivable; fair value; investment fund; net present value; capital stock; central bank; Financial statements; Public sector; Business enterprises; Pensions; Pension spending; Global; Assets; balance sheet; converting financial statements; liabilities; mineral and energy resources; net worth; public corporations; public sector balance sheet; public wealth; government asset; historical cost; book value; reserve account; deposit assets; heritage assets
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Lithuania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the fiscal challenges in Lithuania. Lithuania’s fiscal position has strengthened in recent years. However, medium term challenges are significant given the severe demographic pressures from population aging and net emigration. Lithuania’s net financial worth of the general government is relatively strong compared with other countries in the region although contingent liabilities from the pension system are sizable. The recent reform of the pension system will help make the system more fiscally sustainable. Upcoming reforms should be carefully designed, considering their trade-offs, to ensure social sustainability; reduce old-age poverty; and limit adverse impact on labor supply and informality.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Lithuania; expenditure; pensioner; household expenditure; spending gap; population structure; Pillar II; employment income; households of pensioner; retirement age; loan-deposit ratio; consumption expenditure; case of Lithuania; Macroprudential policy; Pension spending; Fiscal rules; Pensions; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Correspondent Banking Trends: A Monitoring Framework
Dirk Jan Grolleman
and
David Jutrsa
The withdrawal of correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) remains a concern for the international community because, in affected jurisdictions, the decline could have potential adverse consequences on international trade, growth, financial inclusion, and the stability and integrity of the financial system. Building on existing initiatives and IMF technical assistance, this paper discusses a framework that can be readily used by central banks and supervisory authorities to effectively monitor the developments of CBRs in their jurisdiction. The working paper explains the monitoring framework and includes the necessary reporting templates and an analytical tool for the collection of data and analysis of CBRs.
Keywords:
WP; respondent bank; reporting bank; nostro account; CBR development; banking system; Correspondent Banking; Correspondent Banking Relationships; bank data; ordering bank; Commercial banks; Currencies; Data collection; Public expenditure review; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
The Revenue Administration–Gap Analysis Program: An Analytical Framework for Excise Duty Gap Estimation
Mr. Mick Thackray
The IMF Fiscal Affairs Department’s Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program (RA-GAP) assists revenue administrations from IMF member countries in monitoring taxpayer compliance through tax gap analysis. The RA-GAP analytical framework for estimating excise gaps presented in this Technical Note sets out the steps and data required for comprehensive top-down gap estimates based on a comparison of actual collections to potential collections, which is estimated from consumption (or use) and expenditure of excise commodities. The note outlines the motivation for, and different approaches to, excise gap estimation; and identifies the design criteria for robust gap estimates. The note was jointly produced by RA-GAP team and the Slovak Republic’s Institute for Financial Policy, piloting the framework for the mineral oils excise gap in Slovakia.
Keywords:
TNM; gap estimate; excise rate; excise gap; compliance risk; gap analysis; Tax Administration; Tax Compliance; Excise; Tax Gap; Tax Avoidance; Tax Evasion; Excise Smuggling; Cross-Border Shopping; Shadow Economy; Non-Observed Economy; excise collection; excise goods; rate change; gap study; understanding excise transaction; Excises; Consumption; Tax administration core functions