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International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents the second set of PRGT borrowing agreements that have been finalized through April 2023 as part of the loan mobilization round launched in July 2021 to cover the cost of pandemic-related lending and support the self-sustainability of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT). Seven of the eight agreements presented use SDRs in the context of SDR channeling. Together these agreements provide a total of SDR 5.1 billion in new PRGT loan resources for low-income countries (LICs).
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
This Management Implementation Plan (MIP) focuses on further strengthening collaboration between the IMF and the World Bank on strategic macro-structural issues. In macro-structural areas, the Fund and the Bank have complementary roles. The Bank provides structural and development-focused assessments and recommendations, while the Fund focuses on integrating macro relevant structural issues in the macroeconomic frameworks and policies. In some areas, including financial sector and public debt sustainability assessments, Bank-Fund collaboration modalities are well established. In other areas, such as climate change, Fund staff is developing comprehensive strategies on how the IMF can step up its engagement and collaboration with external partners, including with the World Bank, to better serve its membership. This MIP proposes concrete steps aimed at further enhancing: • Bank-Fund collaboration on strategic macro-structural issues, with an initial focus on the climate workstream; • Fund staff’s incentives for collaboration with external partners, including the Bank • Access to and exchange of information and knowledge between Bank and Fund staff.
Dirk Jan Grolleman
and
David Jutrsa
The withdrawal of correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) remains a concern for the international community because, in affected jurisdictions, the decline could have potential adverse consequences on international trade, growth, financial inclusion, and the stability and integrity of the financial system. Building on existing initiatives and IMF technical assistance, this paper discusses a framework that can be readily used by central banks and supervisory authorities to effectively monitor the developments of CBRs in their jurisdiction. The working paper explains the monitoring framework and includes the necessary reporting templates and an analytical tool for the collection of data and analysis of CBRs.
International Monetary Fund
The paper presents an update on the status of the standard template to collect data on government revenues from natural resources, originally presented to the Executive Board in January 2014. The paper discusses: (i) the field-testing of the standard template in six countries, which confirmed the feasibility of applying it more broadly; (ii) the final version of the template based on outcomes of consultation with the international community and the field-testing visits; and (iii) the adoption of the template by the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) International Secretariat as a mandatory reporting requirement for its member countries. The standard template serves as a companion to the Guide to Analyze Natural Resources in the National Accounts. The standard template was developed to support fiscal policy formulation and analysis in resource-rich economies, which constitute about one third of the Fund’s membership. The standard template is based on the revenue classification of the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014, thereby facilitating the collection of resource revenue data in methodologically sound, analytically relevant, and cross-country comparable format.
International Monetary Fund
The December 2015 IMF Research Bulletin features a sampling of key research from the IMF. The Research Summaries in this issue look at “The Impact of Deflation and Lowflation on Fiscal Aggregates (Nicolas End, Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba, Gilbert Terrier, and Renaud Duplay); and “Oil Exporters at the Crossroads: It Is High Time to Diversify” (Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov). Mahvash Saeed Qureshi provides an overview of the fifth Lindau Meeting in Economics in “Meeting the Nobel Giants.” In the Q&A column on “Seven Questions on Financial Frictions and the Sources of the Business Cycle, Marzie Taheri Sanjani looks at the driving forces of the business cycle and macroeconomic models. The top-viewed articles in 2014 from the IMF Economic Review are highlighted, along with recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and IMF publications.
Mr. Mike Seiferling
This paper re-examines the stock-flow discrepancies of government debt and deficits and correlation with fiscal transparency. Applying the fully integrated relationship between financial stocks and flows allows for a more refined analysis of the deterministic components that make up the ‘stock-flow’ residual. Using partial measures of these stock-flow residuals, several empirical studies have found them to be significantly correlated with fiscaltransparency, inflation, fiscal rules, and banking crisis. Using fully integrated public finance data from the IMF Government Finance Statistics Yearbook for a sample of 22 countries, the findings in this paper suggest that stock-flow residuals have a significantly smaller magnitude than previously assumed and are, in fact, not correlated with fiscal transparency. A stronger determinant of fiscal transparency scores appears to be the actual reporting of fiscal data covering general government, especially a full financial balance sheet.
Mr. Olivier Coibion
and
Mr. Yuriy Gorodnichenko
We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to U.S. and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process.
International Monetary Fund
We review the literature on Dutch disease, and document that shocks that trigger foreign exchange inflows (such as natural resource booms, surges in foreign aid, remittances, or capital inflows) appreciate the real exchange rate, generate factor reallocation, and reduce manufacturing output and net exports. We also observe that real exchange rate misalignment due to overvaluation and higher volatility of the real exchange rate lower growth. Regarding the effect of undervaluation of the exchange rate on economic growth, the evidence is mixed and inconclusive. However, there is no evidence in the literature that Dutch disease reduces overall economic growth. Policy responses should aim at adequately managing the boom and the risks associated with it.
Turgut Kisinbay
,
Mr. Eric Parrado
,
Mr. Rodolfo Maino
, and
Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko
How should a central bank organize itself to produce the best possible inflation forecast? This paper discusses elements for building a comprehensive platform for an inflation forecasting framework. It describes the exercise of forecasting inflation as a production process, which induces a strict discipline concerning data management, information gathering, the use of a suitable statistical apparatus, and the exercise of sound communication strategies to reinforce reputation and credibility. It becomes critical how a central bank organizes itself to produce relevant macroeconomic forecasts, with special consideration to product design, the essential requirements needed in the forecasting process, and key related organizational issues. In addition, the paper proposes to factor into the process the authorities' policy responses to previous inflation forecasts in order to be consistent with the spirit of the inflation targeting framework.
International Monetary Fund
As will become apparent in the assessments, Norway’s membership in the European Statistical System shapes Norwegian official statistics and statistical policy in a number of ways. Norway produces and disseminates a significant share of its data consistent with the legal requirements of the system. Norway’s macroeconomic statistics are of generally high quality. They are adequate to conduct effective surveillance, although the mission (held in Oslo during November 11–26, 2002, by the IMF Statistics Department) identified some shortcomings that may detract from the accurate and timely analysis of economic and financial developments and the formulation of appropriate policy.