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Europe > Norway

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Front Matter
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

IMF Country Report No. 24/297
Keywords:
inflation expectation; monetary policy stance; keeping inflation high; article IV consultation discussion; transparency policy; Inflation
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Norway
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that boosting labor supply, containing public expenditure pressures, and raising productivity will be required for Norway to be able to continue its strong economic performance and preserve its welfare model. A recent White Paper by the Ministry of Finance rightly raises these key issues facing Norway’s economy in the longer term. Real gross domestic product growth slowed in 2023 and is expected to gradually rebound in the near term as private domestic demand strengthens supported by higher real incomes. Tight macroprudential policies should remain in place to mitigate systemic vulnerabilities. The financial system appears resilient and banking system buffers are strong. Long-term fiscal challenges should be more forcefully addressed. Norway has the largest proportion of the population on disability-related benefits among the organisation for economic co-operation and development countries, and reforming costly and distortionary social benefit systems is possibly the most important and politically difficult reform pending. Although Norway boasts one of the highest levels of labor productivity among its peers, it has slowed faster than in other countries. To reverse this trend, conditions should be improved to facilitate sectoral reallocation as well as innovation and technology adoption.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; holdings of SDR; monetary policy stance; inflation pressure; consumer price inflation; Inflation; Labor markets; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Norway
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

1. A cyclical slowdown has ensued from the tight monetary policy required to bring inflation under control. Against this backdrop, macroeconomic management will have to navigate policy trade-offs and near-term vulnerabilities arising from still elevated inflation, highly leveraged households under pressure from elevated interest rates and a weakening labor market, and the financial system’s sizable exposures to firms in the struggling real estate sector.
Keywords:
core inflation; headline inflation; CRE firm; mainland GDP; cash flow; Fiscal stance
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Norway: Staff Report for the 2024 Article IV Consultation—Informational Annex
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

NORWAY
Keywords:
Exchange rate arrangements
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Statement by Mr. Vitas Vasiliauskas, Executive Director for Norway, and Ms. Ingrid Solberg, Senior Advisor to the Executive Director September 13, 2024
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

On behalf of the Norwegian authorities, we would like to thank staff for a thorough report on the Norwegian economy, candid discussions, and insightful policy recommendations. We attach great importance to the IMF’s assessments. Staff’s reports contribute with high quality analysis and evaluations enabling authorities to identify shortcomings in economic policies. This adds value to the decision making and to the political debate in Norway. Although Norway is a rich and prosperous country, we are facing several challenges, including slow productivity growth, facilitating a green transition, and demographic headwinds.
Keywords:
security landscape; policy instrument; insightful policy recommendation; Inflation targeting; Inflation; Global
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Japan’s Fertility: More Children Please
Kohei Asao
,
Danila Smirnov
, and
TengTeng Xu
Japan’s fertility has declined in the past three decades. Raising Japan’s fertility rate is a key policy priority for the government. Using cross-country analysis and case studies, this paper finds that the most successful measure to support the fertility rate is the provision of childcare facilities, particularly for children aged 0-2. Offering stronger incentives for the use of paternity leave can alleviate the burden of childcare on mothers, supporting fertility. On the other hand, there is limited evidence that cash transfers are effective in supporting fertility, based on international experience.
Keywords:
Fertility; childcare; gender; labor market; fertility growth; TengTeng xu; Japan's fertility; fertility rate; fertility rate growth; Women; Gender inequality; Gender diversity; Employment; Aging; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Firms’ Response to Climate Regulations-Empirical Investigations Based on the European Emissions Trading System
Fotios Kalantzis
,
Salma Khalid
,
Alexandra Solovyeva
, and
Marcin Wolski
Using a novel cross-country dataset, which merges firm-level financials with information on firms’ participation in the European Unions’ Emissions Trading System (ETS), we investigate how firm performance is affected by tightening of environmental policies that put a price on pollution. We find that more stringent policies do not have a strong negative impact on the profitability of ETS-regulated or non-ETS firms. While firms report an increase in their input costs during periods of high carbon prices, their reported turnover is also higher. Among ETS-regulated firms which must purchase emission certificates under the EU ETS, tightening of climate policies in periods of high carbon prices results in increased investment, particularly in intangible assets. We establish robustness of our results using a quantile regression analysis, ensuring our key findings are not driven by distributional irregularities. Our findings provide support for the benefits of EU ETS on accelerating firms’ climate transition, while keeping firm-level financial costs at bay.
Keywords:
climate finance; climate change; decarbonization; firm-level analysis; Emissions Trading System (ETS); ETS firm; climate transition; EU Emissions Trading System; ETS-regulated firm; IMF working paper No. 24/135; Emissions trading; Climate policy; Environmental policy; Greenhouse gas emissions; Global
Cover FinTech Notes
Cross-Border Payments with Retail Central Bank Digital Currencies: Design and Policy Considerations
Andre Reslow
,
Gabriel Soderberg
, and
Natsuki Tsuda
Many central banks are currently exploring the possibility of issuing retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). While the primary objective varies between jurisdictions, many central banks consider improved cross-border payments as a potential benefit and previous work has shown that CBDC can help overcome some of the frictions in cross-border payments. CBDC is a safe and liquid asset reducing the number of financial intermediaries and the settlement risk. Designing CBDC systems for cross-border payments is not fundamentally different from tailoring other payment systems. However, the roles and responsibilities might be slightly different in a CBDC system, and the central bank may play a more pivotal role given CBDC’s nature as public money as opposed to commercial bank money. This note draws lessons from ongoing experimentation and research to identify design and policy considerations when developing retail CBDC systems so it may be compatible for cross-border payments. The note focuses on retail CBDC—a CBDC primarily targeting households and non-financial firms—and leaves wholesale CBDC considerations for future work, although many of the discussions are applicable to wholesale CBDC and other forms of money as well.
Keywords:
central bank digital currencies; cross-border payments; fintech; foreign exchange; capital flow management; eNaira; cross-border payment; IMF Library; capital flow management measure; provider restriction; CBDC design consideration; Currencies; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Nonbank financial institutions; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Japan: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the main drivers of persistent gender gaps in leadership in Japan and identifies public policies that can play a role in closing these gaps. Despite its economic relevance, analysis on the drivers of women leaders and managers in Japan is limited. There are a few existing studies, such as Yamaguchi (2013), that use firm level or survey-based data to identify the key constraints to women’s career advancement. Women are also underrepresented in policy-making positions. The availability of public childcare facilities has improved, and is positively associated with the share of female managers. As witnessed in the case of Japan, increasing female labor force participation is not sufficient to ensure that women have good jobs and good careers. In order to foster the advancement of women into managerial and leadership positions, policy efforts need acceleration. Reforming current employment practices and policies are essential for improving women’s quality of jobs. This will also help increase productivity, wages and advance an equal society. First, further progress should be made on work-style reforms, such as encouraging the use of flexible working schedules and teleworking options.
Keywords:
funding affect startup performance; labor market dualism; risk culture; childcare leave cause; wage income; Income inequality; Income; Women; Income distribution; Gender inequality; Global; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Cash Flow Analysis of Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries
Thomas Benninger
,
Dan Devlin
,
Eduardo Camero Godinez
, and
Nate Vernon
Mining and petroleum projects share characteristics distinguishing them from other sectors of the economy, which has led to the use of dedicated fiscal regimes for these projects. The IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department uses fiscal modeling to evaluate extractive industry fiscal regimes for its member countries, and trains country officials on key modeling concepts. This paper outlines important preconditions needed for effective fiscal modeling, key evaluation metrics, and emphasizes the importance of transparent modeling practices. It then examines the modeling of commonly-used fiscal instruments and highligts where their economic impact differs, and how fiscal models can inform fiscal regime design.
Keywords:
Natural resource taxation; extractive industries; progressivity; economic rents; fiscal modeling; investment analysis; mining; petroleum.; D. resource rent tax; cash flow; petroleum project; regime design; Corporate income tax; Production sharing; Fiscal Analysis of Resource Industries (FARI); Oil; Carbon tax; Global