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Mehmet Cangul
Low-income economies face negative shocks whose frequency and disproportionate impact overcome growth trajectories, producing a negative drift. COVID-19 was the latest such episode. To escape this negative drift, and build a durable recovery, there is a need for a counter-balancing force: to construct a positive shock. Growth is realized through decisions that fall under two categories, routine and non-linear. While routine decisions modify existing economic behavior along the same path, non-linear decisions describe riskier options that involve transformation. Option pricing theory can be useful to describe the latter, and construct the positive shock required to escape the negative drift.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Niger’s Third Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Extension, Rephasing, and Modification of Performance Criteria of the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, and Request for an Arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The Nigerien economy has been resilient to multiple shocks over the past few years, including the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, the worsening security situation in the Sahel region, and climate shocks. The outlook remains favorable, with the start of crude oil exports through the new pipeline to the Beninese coast. The authorities’ efforts to lift the most binding constraints to private sector development and economic diversification should be accelerated. Promoting financial stability and inclusion is critical to build resilience. The Nigerien authorities have made good progress in implementing their economic reform program despite a challenging security situation and climate shocks. Key priorities include stepping up domestic revenue mobilization efforts and advancing with fiscal consolidation plans while strengthening social and priority spending.