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Nature > Natural Disasters

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Maroc: 2023 - demande d’un accord au titre de la facilité pour la résilience et la durabilité-communiqué de presse et rapport des services du FMI
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Le changement climatique est à la fois une menace considérable et l’occasion de nouvelles possibilités de développement pour le Maroc. D’une part, le Maroc est l’un des pays du monde les plus touchés par le stress hydrique et la pénurie d’eau est un sérieux obstacle qui empêche le pays de satisfaire son ambition d’aller vers un nouveau modèle de développement. Les autorités prévoient d’accroître les investissements en infrastructures hydriques, mais elles devront les compléter par des réformes de gestion de la demande pour rapprocher le prix de l’eau de son coût réel et susciter un changement de comportement des usagers. D’autre part, le Maroc peut tirer parti de l’abondance et de la compétitivité de ses ressources énergétiques renouvelables pour réduire sa dépendance encore prononcée à l’égard des combustibles fossiles. Le processus de décarbonation de son modèle énergétique nécessiterait de considérables investissements dans les énergies renouvelables, qui devraient être essentiellement assumés par le secteur privé. Ce processus nécessiterait également de profondes réformes réglementaires, notamment de nouvelles mesures pour libéraliser le secteur de l’électricité. La pleine exploitation de ce potentiel énergétique renouvelable pourrait permettre au Maroc de réduire sa dépendance à l’égard des combustibles importés, de renforcer la compétitivité de ses entreprises sur les marchés voisins qui s’engagent sur la voie de la transition écologique (notamment l’Union européenne) et de contribuer à la création d’emplois. Le fort séisme qui a frappé le Maroc le 8 septembre, entraînant un lourd tribut en termes de vies humaines et de dégâts matériels, souligne l’importance de renforcer la préparation et la résilience du pays face aux catastrophes naturelles, notamment au changement climatique.
Keywords:
food inflation; CPI headline inflation; staff appraisal; RSF arrangement; RSF review; Climate change; Natural disasters; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate finance; Global; Maghreb
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
quantifying Adaptation investment; Adaptation gap; macro impact; debt financing of Adaptation investment; economic growth in Moldova; Corruption; Infrastructure; Climate change; Natural disasters; Europe; Global; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Rwanda: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
climate agenda; NDC financing; monetary policy transmission; financing option; implementation framework; Climate finance; Natural disasters; Central bank policy rate; Value-added tax; Global; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Rwanda: 2023 Article IV Consultation, Second Reviews Under the Policy Coordination Instrument and the Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, Requests for the Modification of End December 2023 Quantitative Targets, Rephasing of Access Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, and Request for an Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Rwandan economy is undergoing challenging times. Development needs remain large and compounded shocks in recent years resulted in emerging internal and external imbalances. Devastating floods from May 2023 amplified the underlying imbalances, and the reconstruction costs are projected to be substantial. Against this backdrop, the authorities requested a new Fund financing arrangement to safeguard macroeconomic and external stability in the near term. A 3-year Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) and Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) arrangements were approved in December 2022.
Keywords:
national bank of Rwanda; PCI reform target; RSF reform measure; IMF TA mission; Rwanda delegation; nationally determined contributions; RSF performance; climate commitment; Climate finance; Natural disasters; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Philippines: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Keywords:
c efficiency; QIPF coefficient; efficiency of tax collection; adaptation Infrastructure; QIPF extension; Infrastructure; Natural disasters; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Impacts of Climate Disasters in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies
Habtamu Fuje, Jiaxiong Yao, Seung Mo Choi, and Hamza Mighri
Climate-induced disasters are causing increasingly frequent and intense economic damages, disproportionally affecting emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) relative to advanced economies (AEs). However, the impact of various types of climate shocks on output growth and fiscal positions of EMDEs is not fully understood. This research analyzes the macro-fiscal implications of three common climate disasters (droughts, storms, and floods) using a combination of macroeconomic data and comprehensive ground and satellite disaster indicators spanning the past three decades across 164 countries. Across EMDEs, where agriculture tends to be the principal sector, a drought reduces output growth by 1.4 percentage points and government revenue by 0.7 percent of GDP as it erodes the tax bases of affected countries. Meanwhile, likely reflecting limited fiscal space to respond to a disaster, fiscal expenditure does not increase following a drought. A storm drags output growth in EMDEs, albeit with negligible impact on fiscal revenue, but government expenditure increases due to reconstruction and clean-up efforts. We find only limited impact of localized floods on growth and fiscal positions. In contrast, AEs tend to experience negligible growth and fiscal consequences from climate-induced shocks. As these shocks have much more detrimental effects in EMDEs, international support for disaster preparedness and climate change adaptation play a crucial role for these countries to confront climate change.
Keywords:
Climate-related shocks; droughts; storms; floods; satellite data; macro-fiscal; emerging markets and developing economies; climate disaster; climate change adaptation; climate-induced disaster; climate change; Natural disasters; Fiscal stance; Fiscal space; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Climate and Cross-Border Migration
Paula Beltran and Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov
Our work is positioned at the intersection of migration and climate change—two key forces shaping the economic outlook of many countries. The analysis explores: (i) the relative importance of origincountry vs destination-country factors in explaining migration patterns; (ii) importance of climate disasters as driver of cross-border migration; and (iii) the importance of climate-driven migration on the overall impact of climate on macroeconomic outcomes. It arrives at the following main findings. First, both origin-country and destination-country contribute to explaining migration outflows from EMDEs, although only the global shocks seem important for advanced economies. Second, climate disasters are important for explaining the origincountry migration shocks in LICs and EMDEs, are especially relevant for smaller countries, and lead to migration of both genders, albeit relatively more for males out of LICs. Third, important portion of climate’s overall impact on economic outcomes—especially agricultural GDP, remittances, and inequality—is captured via climate-driven migration. Finally, higher investment in climate-resilient infrastructure can reduce the impact of climate on cross-border migration, and thereby, result in potentially important economic gains.
Keywords:
International Migration; Climate; Climate Disasters; climate disaster; migration outflow; origin-country migration shock; migration pattern; climate-driven migration; Migration; Natural disasters; Climate change; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Asia’s Perspectives on Climate Change: Policies, Perceptions, and Gaps
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris, Mr. Thomas Helbling, Kenichiro Kashiwase, Giacomo Magistretti, and Mouhamadou Sy
Asia and the Pacific’s green transition will have far-reaching implications for the global economy. Over the past decades, the region has become the engine of global economic growth. With relatively heavy reliance on coal and high energy intensity, the region has recently become the largest contributor to growth in global GHG emissions, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the total emissions in 2020. Achieving net zero by 2050 requires an energy transition at an unprecedented scale and speed, even as the region must ensure energy security and affordability. The region must also address its vulnerability to climate change as it comprises many countries highly exposed to climate hazards increasing in severity and frequency with global warming. If managed well, the green transformation in Asia and the Pacific will create opportunities for economies not only in the region, but also around the world for inclusive and sustainable growth. The global economy is still far from achieving net zero by 2050, and the Asia and the Pacific region must play its part to deliver on mitigation and adaptation goals. Understanding Asia’s perspectives on the constraints and issues with climate ambitions, climate policy actions, and constraints is central for devising climate strategies to meet climate goals. To this end, this chapter draws on novel surveys of country authorities and public in the region to distill climate ambitions and challenges faced and identify sources of major gaps in achieving mitigation and adaptation goals. Measures to help close the gaps are drawn from policy discussions with country authorities in bilateral surveillance and related studies.
Keywords:
Asia; Climate Change; Mitigation; Adaptation; Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs); Industrial Policy; Energy Transition; Renewables; Green Technology; Climate Finance; Critical Minerals; IMF country authority climate survey; IMF country staff report; mitigation policy; Policy instrument; IMF Library; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate policy; Asia and Pacific; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Tonga: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The Tongan economy is performing strongly, underpinned by resilient remittance inflows and major reconstruction activities following the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai (HTHH) volcanic eruption in January 2022. However, supply-side constraints resulting from severe labor shortages and damaged tourism facilities are impeding the recovery and have intensified inflation pressures. In this context, the authorities are confronting a challenging tradeoff between supporting reconstruction and managing inflation in the short term. In the long term, Tonga's high vulnerability to natural disasters complicates its efforts to create the fiscal space necessary to finance development spending.
Keywords:
climate resilience; development spending needs; inflation pressure; PFTAC mission; development objective; development goal; GDP compilation capacity; Inflation; Natural disasters; Debt sustainability; Australia and New Zealand; Global; Pacific Islands
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Morocco: Request for an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Supplement; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Morocco
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Climate change is both a major threat and a source of opportunities for Morocco’s development. On one hand, Morocco is one of the world’s most water-stressed countries, and water scarcity is a serious constraint to the country’s ambition to transition to a new model of development. The authorities are planning to boost investment in water infrastructure, but this should be complemented by demand management reforms that bring the price of water closer to its actual cost and induce a shift in consumption behavior. On the other hand, Morocco can take advantage of its abundant competitive renewable energy resources to reduce its still high dependence on fossil fuels. Decarbonizing the energy matrix would require significant investments in renewable energy, which should be largely shouldered by the private sector. It would also require deep regulatory reforms, including further efforts to liberalize the electricity sector. Fully exploiting this renewable energy potential could reduce Morocco´s reliance on imported fuels, help Moroccan firms’ competitiveness in neighboring markets that are embracing a green energy transition (most notably the European Union), and help create jobs. The strong earthquake that hit Morocco on September 8, exerting a heavy toll in terms of human lives and physical damages, highlights the importance of strengthening the country’s preparedness and resilience to natural disasters, including from climate change.
Keywords:
food inflation; CPI headline inflation; staff appraisal; RSF arrangement; RSF review; Climate change; Natural disasters; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate finance; Global; Maghreb