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Asia and Pacific > Malaysia

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Automation and Welfare: The Role of Bequests and Education
Manuk Ghazanchyan, Alexei Goumilevski, and Alex Mourmouras
This paper examines the welfare effects of automation in neoclassical growth models with and without intergenerational transfers. In a standard overlapping generations model without such transfers, improvements in automation technologies that would lower welfare can be mitigated by shifts in labor supply related to demographics or pandemics. With perfect intergenerational transfers based on altruism, automation could raise the well-being of all generations. With imperfect altruism, fiscal transfers (universal basic income) and public policies to expand access to education opportunities can alleviate much of the negative effect of automation.
Keywords:
Automation; Aging; Altruism; Fiscal Policy; Education; Overlapping Generations; appendix B. Replicating Kotlikoff; automation technology; IMF working papers; welfare effect; S model; production function; Income; Human capital; Consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Macro-Financial Impacts of Foreign Digital Money
Anh Le, Alexander Copestake, Brandon Tan, Evan Papageorgiou, Mr. Shanaka J Peiris, and Umang Rawat
We develop a two-country New Keynesian model with endogenous currency substitution and financial frictions to examine the impact on a small developing economy of a stablecoin issued in a large foreign economy. The stablecoin provides households in the domestic economy with liquidity services and an additional hedge against domestic inflation. Its introduction amplifies currency substitution, reducing bank intermediation and weakening monetary policy transmission, worsening the impacts of recessionary shocks and increasing banking sector stress. Capital controls raise stablecoin adoption as a means of circumvention, increasing exposure to spillovers from foreign shocks. Unlike a domestic CBDC, a ban on stablecoin payments can alleviate these effects.
Keywords:
Cryptocurrency; Open Economy; Financial Frictions; Optimal Policy; monetary policy transmission; liquidity services; banking sector stress; stablecoin price; stablecoin issuer; Central Bank digital currencies; Currencies; Bonds; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Monitoring Demand and Supply in Asia: An Industry Level Approach
Chris Redl
This paper provides a decomposition of GDP and its deflator into demand and supply driven components for 12 Asian countries, the US and Europe, following the forecast error-based methodology of Shapiro (2022). We extend that methodology by (1) considering a wide range of statistical forecasting models, using the optimal model for each country and (2) provide a measure idiosyncratic demand and supply movements. The latter provides, for example, a distinction between aggregate demand driven inflation and, inflation driven by large shocks in only a small number of sectors. We find that lockdowns in 2020 are explained by a mix of demand and supply shocks in Asia, but that idiosyncratic demand shocks played a significant role in some countries. Supply factors played an important role in the post-COVID recovery, primarily in 2021, with demand factors becoming more important in 2022. The mix of shocks during the sharp increase in inflation in 2021-22 differs by country, with large and advanced economies generally experiencing more supply shocks (China, Australia, Korea), while emerging markets saw significant demand pressures pushing up prices (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand). We illustrate the usefulness of the industry level shocks in two applications. Firstly, we consider whether industry supply shocks have created demand-like movements in aggregate prices and quantities, so-called Keynesian supply shocks. We find evidence for this mechanism in a minority of countries in our Asia sample, as well for Europe and the USA, but that these results are driven by the COVID-19 event. Secondly, we use the granularity of the industry shocks to construct country-level GDP shocks, driven by idiosyncratic movements at the industry level, to study cross country growth spillovers for the three large economic units in our sample: China, Europe and the US.
Keywords:
Inflation; Demand; Supply; Machine Learning; Spillovers; inflation decomposition; demand and supply shock; GDP shock; demand and supply movement; growth spillover; Supply shocks; Deflation; COVID-19; Asia and Pacific; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
ASEAN-5: Further Harnessing the Benefits of Regional Integration amid Fragmentation Risks
Nuri Baek, Kaustubh Chahande, Kodjovi M. Eklou, Mr. Tidiane Kinda, Vatsal Nahata, Umang Rawat, and Ara Stepanyan
The ASEAN-5 region, which comprises Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, has benefited substantially from its integration to the world economy, particularly through trade. Rising risks of geoeconomic fragmentation could reverse some gains reaped from globalization over the past decades. In this context, advancing regional integration among ASEAN-5 members has the potential to enhance the region’s resilience against external headwinds. This paper shows that despite sizeable progress, particularly in regional trade integration, there is room to advance financial integration, which also lags trade integration in ASEAN-5. Empirical findings from the paper illustrate that a higher degree of regional financial integration could generate sizeable output gains for the region. Using firm-level data, the paper highlights that digitalization, an area where the region is thriving, can support regional integration by helping firms better integrate into global value chains, with the benefits being stronger for small and medium sized enterprises. The results also suggest that digitalization can help firms move up the value chain through the production of more sophisticated products, often coined as higher export sophistication.
Keywords:
Trade integration; financial integration; digitalization; fragmentation risks; goods export sophistication; firm level result; firm growth; firm Growth; external finance dependence; Financial sector development; Exports; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Anatomy of Monetary Policy Transmission in an Emerging Market
Kodjovi M. Eklou
Monetary policy transmission in EMs has been found to be weak historically due to under-developed financial markets and heavy central bank intervention in FX markets that undermine the exchange rate channel. Against this background, this paper investigates the transmission of monetary policy, including the role of external factors, in Malaysia and highlight findings that could be relevant for other EMs. We find an important role for the credit and the exchange rate channels. Further, we also find a complementary role for policy tools including Foreign Exchange Intervention (FXI) and liquidity tools such as Statutory Reserve Requirement in shaping the transmission of monetary policy. We then explore the spillover effects of external global factors including global monetary policy and global commodity prices on monetary policy transmission in a small open economy such as Malaysia. The results show that while global commodity prices do not impair monetary policy transmission, global monetary policy tightening could complement domestic efforts to achieve price stability by inducing a global disinflation. Finally, monetary policy transmission is delayed and weakened in high inflationary environment, with the implication that more aggressive and preemptive policy actions may be needed in such cases.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Emerging markets; Exchange rate; Credit; Inflation; Economic activity; Global monetary policy; monetary policy transmission; transmission of monetary policy; spillover effect; monetary policy shock; policy tool; Exchange rates; Monetary tightening; Central bank policy rate; Asset prices; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Some Lessons from Asian E-Money Schemes for the Adoption of Central Bank Digital Currency
Tao Sun and Ryan Rizaldy
This paper synthesizes four lessons from the experiences of six Asian e-money schemes for central banks as they consider adopting central bank digital currency (CBDC): (i) CBDC should embody four attributes: trust, convenience, efficiency, and security; (ii) CBDC service providers can facilitate CBDC adoption through four channels: leveraging digital technology, targeting use cases, developing business models, and complying with legal and regulatory requirements; (iii) central banks could incentivize CBDC service providers to develop these four channels when considering CBDC adoption; and (iv) central banks may be able to establish data-sharing arrangements that preserve privacy while leaving room for CBDC service providers to explore the economic value of data.
Keywords:
E-money; central bank digital currency; service providers; e-money adoption; e-money scheme; e-money ecosystem; e-money development; e-money PSP; e-money transaction; Digital currencies; Central Bank digital currencies; Digital financial services; Social networks; Asia and Pacific; Southeast Asia
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malaysia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Malaysia registered a strong economic recovery in 2022, backed by its well-diversified economy, sound policy frameworks, and commodity exporter status. While monetary policy started a gradual post-pandemic normalization, record costly spending on fuel subsidies broadly kept inflationary pressures suppressed in 2022. Meanwhile, the new national unity government has signaled its commitment to the reform priorities outlined in the Twelfth Malaysia Plan and the 2023 Budget to propel the economy toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and high-income status. In view of the positive output gap and ongoing inflationary pressures, near-term policies should focus on accelerating the pace of policy tightening, while managing downside risks and trade-offs. The financial sector remains healthy but warrants stepped-up monitoring, especially of highly leveraged entities and non-bank financial institutions, given increased risks from rising interest rates, tighter financial conditions, exchange rate depreciation, and weaker expected growth. Expanding the macroprudential toolkit should support these efforts.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; PPI weight; balance of payments position; coverage ratio; Malaysia's obligation; asset forfeiture regime; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Income Convergence or Divergence in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Shock?
Mariya Brussevich, Shihui Liu, and Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
The paper extends the work of Deaton (2021) by exploring the period of post-crisis recovery in 2021-2024. The paper documents per-capita income divergence during the period of post-shock recovery, with countries at the bottom of the income distribution falling significantly behind. Findings suggest that higher COVID-19 vaccination rates and targeted virus containment measures are associated with faster recovery in per-capita incomes in the medium term. Evidence on the effectiveness of economic support policies for reducing cross-country income inequality, including fiscal and monetary policies, is mixed especially in the case of developing countries.
Keywords:
COVID-19; convergence; divergence; support policies; income convergence; convergence coefficient; vaccination rate; health impact; targeted virus containment measure; Income; Income inequality; Service exports; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malaysia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malaysia
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Malaysia’s economy is showing signs of a gradual yet steady recovery thanks to the authorities’ impressive vaccine rollout, swift and coordinated implementation of multi-pronged support measures. The recovery nevertheless remains uneven and the output gap sizeable, with significant downside risks. Going forward, the authorities should calibrate macroeconomic policies to the pace of the recovery, while preserving policy space given pandemic-related uncertainties, and simultaneously accelerate structural reforms.
Keywords:
inflation expectation; transitory inflation pricing; staff statement; authorities project headline inflation; Ukraine-Russia conflict; COVID-19; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Tax refunds; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Côte d’Ivoire: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
growth spell; governance FRAMEWORK; efficiency gain; world governance indicator; growth episode; Health care spending; Education spending; Public investment spending; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; West Africa; Africa