Africa > Malawi

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Irina Bunda
,
Luc Eyraud
, and
Zhangrui Wang
The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, which has hit financial systems across Africa, is likely to deteriorate banks’ balance sheets. The largest threat to banks pertains to their loan portfolios, since many borrowers have faced a sharp collapse in their income, and therefore have difficulty repaying their obligations as they come due. This could lead to a sharp increase in nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the short to medium term.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Malawi’s economic growth remains moderate, reflecting a weak agricultural harvest and continued electricity shortages. Fiscal deficits continue to be financed domestically, as donor funding remains constrained by governance concerns since the 2013 cashgate scandal, resulting in an increasing public debt burden. Presidential elections are scheduled for mid-2019. Program performance. Most quantitative performance criteria (QPC) were met at end-June 2018, with significant overperformance on international reserves and the reduction in Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) holdings of government securities. The QPC on the primary fiscal balance was missed by 0.9 percent of GDP due to expenditure overruns. The continuous QPC on new non-concessional external debt was missed due to a technical oversight in the Technical Memorandum of Understanding. Based on corrective measures, the authorities request waivers of non-observance. Two structural benchmarks were observed and most of the rest have been completed with delay.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Malawi recently rebounded from two years of drought. Growth picked up from 2.3 percent in 2016 to an estimated 4.0 percent in 2017 owing to a recovery in agricultural production. Inflation has been reduced below 10 percent owing to the stabilization of food prices, prudent fiscal and monetary policies, and a stable exchange rate. Economic growth is expected to increase gradually, reaching over 6 percent in the medium term. Growth will be supported by enhanced infrastructure investment and social services as well as an improved business environment, which will boost confidence and unlock the economy’s potential for higher, more broad-based, and resilient growth and employment.
Mr. Pokar D Khemani
and
Mr. Benoit Wiest
The accuracy and reliability of government accounts and fiscal data is an issue in a number of countries, with significant and persistent discrepancies that can indicate underlying weaknesses in the country’s public financial management system. This note provides guidance on how to detect issues with data quality, perform integrity checks, and reconcile fiscal data from various sources. It discusses the importance of reconciliation to provide reasonable assurance on the quality and reliability of government fiscal data, explores the main reasons for which discrepancies may arise, and explains how to conduct quality checks. The note concludes with recommendations for country teams of concrete steps to ensure data quality.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper provides a review of the economic performance of Malawi under the program supported by an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Malawi’s economy has been hit hard by weather-related shocks for a second consecutive year, further weakening growth and worsening food insecurity. Growth is estimated to have declined from 5.7 percent in 2014 to 3 percent in 2015 and is projected to drop further to 2.7 percent this year. Under the ECF program, the macroeconomic framework in the near term will be anchored on a policy mix incorporating a tight monetary stance and a level of domestic fiscal financing consistent with disinflation.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses the Malawi authorities, request for a short extension (June 30, 2016) to their arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) that is currently due to expire on May 22, 2016. The extension is needed to provide time for the authorities to implement two prior actions for completing the seventh and eighth reviews. These comprise the reconciliation of government bank accounts for the first half of FY2015/16 and another on preparing a report on the flow and stock of domestic arrears at end-2015.
Abdul Khan
and
Mario Pessoa
This technical note describes need of conceptual design as a critical element of a government financial management information system project. Governments are increasingly turning to computerized financial management systems to help them respond to the demand for better information. This note describes the conceptual design for government financial management information systems (GFMIS), and explains why is it critical to the success of a GFMIS project. Key factors that influence the preparation of the conceptual design are discussed. The main stakeholders in the preparation of the conceptual design are also elaborated.
International Monetary Fund
This report focuses on IMF Technical Assistance Evaluation—Public Expenditure Management (PEM) Reform in Selected African Countries. Most of the countries examined were colonies of the United Kingdom, inheriting similar and relatively simple budget systems based on an interpretation of the “Westminster model” around the time of independence. Country reviews suggest that PEM problems are widespread and that there are few areas in the PEM systems of the countries covered that do not require strengthening in some way.
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents report on the Observance of Standards and Codes—Fiscal Transparency Module for Malawi. A number of improvements have been made to budget management in Malawi in recent years that are increasing the level of fiscal transparency. Notable examples include the development of a sophisticated budget classification system and the introduction of the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) budgeting process. However, the developments have not been applied consistently across the different areas of fiscal management, and there has been insufficient attention to data quality.
Mr. Ian Lienert
and
Mr. Feridoun Sarraf
This paper examines the merits of the British budget management system that was inherited in Anglophone African countries and which has changed substantially in the United Kingdom since the 1960s. It considers whether the disappointing budgetary performance in Africa is due to weaknesses in the inherited British system, other external influences, or domestic developments. It finds that all three factors have played a role in the widespread problems with budget management systems. Reforms in institutional arrangements are needed, especially in budget execution. Technical reforms will be ineffective unless there are concomitant changes to enhance accountability, improve governance, and increase compliance.