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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Malawi’s Second Review under the Staff-Monitored Program with Executive Board Involvement (PMB) and Request for an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). Malawi continues to face a challenging macroeconomic environment. Years of unsustainable domestic and external borrowing and the adverse impact of multiple external shocks have resulted in the widening of macroeconomic imbalances, including protracted balance of payment needs. The ECF-supported program will support the authorities’ macroeconomic adjustment and reform agenda aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability, building a foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth, and addressing weaknesses in governance. Further delays in the restructuring of Malawi’s external debt would put at risk macroeconomic stabilization. The risks of moving forward with the ECF arrangement without an agreement in principle between the Malawian authorities and their commercial creditors are significant. IMF staff assesses that the PMB remains on track to achieve its objectives. It supports the authorities’ request for the ECF arrangement, conditional upon receipt of financing assurances.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper presents Malawi’s First Review under the Staff-Monitored Program with Executive Board (PMB) Involvement. In light of a series of shocks, program performance was mixed. The authorities are taking corrective actions to establish a record of accomplishment of policy implementation, possibly paving the way to an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Cyclone Freddy has weighed on the outlook for 2023 and led to a lower growth forecast and a higher inflation forecast. Key downside risks include slippages in program implementation, delays in the ongoing external debt restructuring process, and further external shocks. Performance on Quantitative Targets (QTs), Indicative Targets (ITs), and Structural Benchmarks was mixed, with four out of six end-December and continuous QTs and one out of three end-December ITs not met. Four out of seven Structural Benchmarks were not met. The authorities have committed to strong corrective actions. The authorities are taking corrective actions necessary to overcome mixed performance and implementation challenges with the PMB to date, allowing them to demonstrate their commitment and capacity to implement the agreed macroeconomic adjustment and reforms to build the policy record of accomplishment needed to support their request for an ECF arrangement.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Foreign exchange shortages together with exchange rate misalignment led to a sharp decline in imports including fuel, fertilizer, medicine, and food. Large fiscal deficits, nearly 10 percent of GDP in FY2021/22, have been largely financed by domestic bank borrowing, resulting in rapid money growth and inflation of 25.9 percent in September 2022. Exchange rate pass-through and hikes in food prices added to inflationary pressure. In addition, food insecurity in Malawi has increased dramatically under the impact of multiple tropical storms, below-average crop production, and increasing prices for food and agricultural inputs such as fertilizer and seeds. The latter are expected to affect the current planting season. As a result of these factors, about 20 percent of the population is projected to be acutely food insecure during the upcoming 2022/23 lean season (October 2022-March 2023), more than twice as many as in 2021.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Malawi’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic is having a severe impact on Malawi, creating an urgent balance of payments need. The authorities have been proactive in mitigating the impact of the pandemic, including through increased spending on health care and social assistance, supporting small and medium enterprises, bolstering farmers’ incomes and ensuring food security through purchase and storage of agricultural harvests, and easing liquidity constraints in the banking system. The IMF’s emergency financing under the RCF is expected to help the authorities meet the large external financing gap and catalyze further assistance from the international community. Additional concessional donor support will be critical to close the remaining external financing gap and facilitate the needed interventions to ease the economic and social impacts of the pandemic, while preserving Malawi’s hard-earned macroeconomic stability. A widening of the budget deficit is appropriate in the near-term, given the fiscal costs associated with the economic slowdown and critical additional health care and social spending needs, which should be executed transparently and targeted to the most affected parts of society.
International Monetary Fund
This 2006 Article IV Consultation highlights that Malawi is at a critical juncture following its progress on macroeconomic stability, attainment of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) completion point in August 2006, and the recent launch of the Malawi Growth and Development Strategy, which outlines an ambitious agenda of structural reform to enhance growth and reduce poverty. This paper focuses on the three key challenges facing Malawi over the medium term, which frame macroeconomic policy over the near term.
International Monetary Fund
Malawi has made satisfactory progress in implementing its Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) for at least one year, and maintained satisfactory macroeconomic policies as evidenced by its performance under a program supported by the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) over the last fiscal year 2005/2006. The completion point analysis shows the actual outturn to be 245 percent of exports. After additional voluntary bilateral debt relief, this ratio declines to 229 percent of exports. The paper assesses the sensitivity of debt indicators to changes in key economic variables.
Ms. Jacqueline T Irving

Abstract

This pamphlet reports on how the enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) is meeting its aim of delivering faster, broader, and deeper debt relief to more HIPCs once these countries have shown a commitment to put the freed-up funds to work for the poor. The pamphlet also includes introductory sections that explain the rationale for the HIPC Initiative and describe how it works. A concluding section discusses the Initiative’s top challenge in the year ahead: to bring the remaining eligible countries to their decision points under the Initiative as fast and realistically as possible.

International Monetary Fund
Although Malawi showed good economic performance under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility Arrangement, its poverty rate remained high. Executive Directors stressed the need to improve fiscal and monetary stances, and accelerate structural reforms. They appreciated the 10-point plan to improve budget management, and emphasized the need to sustain the soundness of the banking system. Directors agreed for further concessional assistance and urged the authorities to sustain efforts to improve data collection and dissemination, particularly in the area of fiscal statistics.
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

One result of the IMF's move to increased openness are independent external evaluations of important IMF policies, to complement its own in-house evaluations. This paper, prepared by a team of evaluators, includes in addition to the external evaluation, a statement by Bernd Esdar, Chairman of the Executive Director's group concerned with external evaluations; the summing up by IMF Managing Director Michel Camdessus of the Executive Board's discussion of the report; the terms of reference; and the IMF staff's response to the evaluation.