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Africa > Malawi

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Cover Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs
Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This evaluation assesses how well IMF-supported programs helped to sustain economic growth while delivering adjustment needed for external viability over the period 2008–19. The evaluation finds that the Fund’s increasing attention to growth in the programs has delivered some positive results. Specifically, it does not find evidence of a consistent bias towards excessive austerity in IMF-supported programs. Indeed, programs have yielded growth benefits relative to a counterfactual of no Fund engagement and boosted post-program growth performance. Notwithstanding these positive findings, program growth outcomes consistently fell short of program projections. Such shortfalls imply less protection of incomes than intended, fuel adjustment fatigue and public opposition to reforms, and jeopardize progress towards external viability. The evaluation examines how different policy instruments were applied to support better growth outcomes while achieving needed adjustment. Fiscal policies typically incorporated growth-friendly measures but with mixed success. Despite some success in promoting reforms and growth, structural conditionalities were of relatively low depth and their potential growth benefits were not fully realized. Use of the exchange rate as a policy tool to support growth and external adjustment during programs was quite limited. Lastly, market debt operations were useful in some cases to restore debt sustainability and renew market access, yet sometimes were too little and too late to deliver the intended benefits. The evaluation concludes that the IMF should seek to further enhance program countries’ capacity to sustain activity while undertaking needed adjustment during the program and to enhance growth prospects beyond the program. Following this conclusion, the report sets out three recommendations aimed at strengthening attention to growth implications of IMF-supported programs, including the social and distributional consequences.

Keywords:
IMF programs; growth optimism; austerity bias; structural conditionality; debt sustainability; fiscal policy; exchange rate policy; PRGT program; debt operation; IMF support; reviews IMF policy; program objective; Fiscal consolidation; Real effective exchange rates; Structural reforms; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Caribbean; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: Second and Third Reviews Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Augmentation of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Malawi’s Second and Third Reviews Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for Waivers of NonObservance of Performance Criteria and Augmentation of Access. Program-supported structural reforms advanced, addressing several important gaps that had previously been identified in public financial management. All quantitative performance criteria were met except those on the primary balance, which were missed largely due to faster than envisaged implementation of rural electrification and development projects, unexpected spending for disaster relief and to ensure safety during elections and post-election protests. The authorities aim to entrench macroeconomic stability, preserve debt sustainability, and advance governance reforms while attaining higher, more inclusive, and resilient growth. Essential reconstruction and security spending will be accommodated by reprioritizing spending and a modest relaxation in the FY 2019/20 domestic primary balance target. Monetary policy remains targeted on containing inflation and exchange rate flexibility will buffer shocks and preserve competitiveness. Financial sector resilience continues to be strengthened.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ECF arrangement; SDR; resilience to climate change; Malawi's resilience; reconstruction; equivalent of SDR; debt service; Fiscal stance; Africa; Global; IMF's transparency policy; IMF arrangement
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: First Review Under the Three-Year Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for Modification and Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Malawi’s economic growth remains moderate, reflecting a weak agricultural harvest and continued electricity shortages. Fiscal deficits continue to be financed domestically, as donor funding remains constrained by governance concerns since the 2013 cashgate scandal, resulting in an increasing public debt burden. Presidential elections are scheduled for mid-2019. Program performance. Most quantitative performance criteria (QPC) were met at end-June 2018, with significant overperformance on international reserves and the reduction in Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) holdings of government securities. The QPC on the primary fiscal balance was missed by 0.9 percent of GDP due to expenditure overruns. The continuous QPC on new non-concessional external debt was missed due to a technical oversight in the Technical Memorandum of Understanding. Based on corrective measures, the authorities request waivers of non-observance. Two structural benchmarks were observed and most of the rest have been completed with delay.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ECF arrangement; anti-corruption effort; support governance reform; exchange rate; budget support; feasibility study; tax reform measure; Fiscal stance; Budget planning and preparation; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA)
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance report assesses the state of public investment management (PIM) in Malawi. Measured against the overall strength of its PIM institutions, Malawi performs broadly in line with other low-income developing countries and sub-Saharan African countries, but less well than better-performing emerging markets. Measures of institutional strength show how well Malawi rates in terms of its existing laws and regulations, as well as the formal guidelines and instructions issued by the government to implement these laws. The public investment management assessment diagnostic tool also measures how effectively, in practice, the government implements and enforces these laws and regulations. On this measure of effectiveness, Malawi performs relatively poorly. Looking at individual indicators of PIM, Malawi’s performance is mixed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; annual budget; budget year; capital stock; cash management; Malawian authorities; cash flow; fiscal policy; capital investment; debt management strategy; water board; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Budget planning and preparation; Public investment spending; Sub-Saharan Africa; Southern Africa; East Africa; Europe; Africa; Malawi power market structure; investment project; PIM effectiveness; implementing investment; investment activity; private sector investment; Malawi revenue authority; Malawi education sector improvement program; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: 2018 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Malawi recently rebounded from two years of drought. Growth picked up from 2.3 percent in 2016 to an estimated 4.0 percent in 2017 owing to a recovery in agricultural production. Inflation has been reduced below 10 percent owing to the stabilization of food prices, prudent fiscal and monetary policies, and a stable exchange rate. Economic growth is expected to increase gradually, reaching over 6 percent in the medium term. Growth will be supported by enhanced infrastructure investment and social services as well as an improved business environment, which will boost confidence and unlock the economy’s potential for higher, more broad-based, and resilient growth and employment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; right; authority; IMF arrangement; reform; Malawi's quota; debt service pressure; ECF arrangement; interest rate; Arrears; Fiscal accounting and reporting; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Social Safeguards and Program Design in PRGT and PSI-Supported Programs
International Monetary Fund
The Fund provides considerable support to low-income countries (LICs). This includes concessional financing from the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT), which currently carries an interest rate of zero percent. Since 2010, over half of Fund-supported arrangements have involved a PRGT facility. Support for poverty reduction is a core objective of arrangements supported by these facilities. This paper examines how PRGT-supported programs safeguard spending on poor and vulnerable groups within the broader framework of promoting inclusive growth. In some cases, national poverty reduction programs seek to shift expenditures toward social programs in the context of generally higher spending supported by domestic revenue mobilization, grants, or debt financing. In other cases, the goal is to safeguard poor and vulnerable groups from fiscal adjustment and reform measures that could adversely affect them by adopting countervailing policy measures to strengthen social safety nets. In discussing social safeguards, this paper focuses on how and if these objectives are reflected satisfactorily in the design of PRGT and PSI-supported programs. The effectiveness of social spending in improving social outcomes, including by durably reducing poverty, is beyond the scope of the paper.
Keywords:
PP; program; Fund; guidance; LIC program; spending; IMF executive board review; program document; country authorities; fund Policy; Social assistance spending; Poverty reduction strategy; Health care spending; Poverty reduction; Fiscal consolidation; Middle East and Central Asia; Central and Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2007, Sub-Saharan African
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2007, Sub-Saharan African
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The region's prospects look strong. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should reach 6 percent in 2007 and 6¾ percent in 2008. The economic expansion is strongest in oil exporters but cuts across all country groups. This would extend a period of very good performance. In recent years, sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its strongest growth and lowest inflation in over 30 years.

Keywords:
REO; Dem. rep.; oil exporter; current account; development expenditure; nonfuel commodity price; terms of trade shock; expenditure program; Fiscal space; Terms of trade; Oil; Medium-term budget frameworks; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; West Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes-Fiscal Transparency Module-Update
International Monetary Fund
This paper presents an Update to the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Fiscal Transparency Module for Malawi. The findings reveal that Malawi does not have an elaborate privatization program. The assemblies and municipalities are currently outside of the Integrated Financial Management Information System and, moreover, use a different chart of accounts than the central government. The consolidation of local government budget execution data with those of central government to produce general government reports is crucial for improving the transparency and accountability of government operations.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; budget; Malawi; enterprise; medium term expenditure framework; execution datum; fiscal policy priority; Budget planning and preparation
Cover Policy Papers
Policy Support and Signaling in Low-Income Countries
International Monetary Fund
This paper explores how the Fund's instruments and practices might be adapted to support sound policies in low-income members, in particular those that do not have a need or want to use Fund resources.
Keywords:
PP; PRGF arrangement; fund endorsement; PSI documentation; PSI performance target; Fund arrangement; Fund resource; successor PSI.; fund financial support; fund staff; fund activity; successor PSI; policy framework; Poverty reduction strategy; Debt sustainability; Credit; Macro-fiscal framework; Balance of payments need; Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Pity the Finance Minister: Issues in Managing a Substantial Scaling-Up of Aid Flows
Mr. Peter S. Heller
Substantially scaling up of aid flows will require development partners to address many issues, including the impact of higher aid flows on: the competitiveness of aid recipients; the management of fiscal and monetary policy; the delivery of public services; behavioral incentives; and the rate of growth of the economy. Other issues will include the appropriate sequencing of aid-financed investments; balancing alternative expenditure priorities; the implications for fiscal and budget sustainability; and exit strategies from donor funding. Donors will need to ensure greater long-term predictability and reduced short-term volatility of aid. The international financial institutions can play a critical role in helping countries address these scaling-up issues.
Keywords:
WP; country authorities; expenditure program; recipient government; private sector; exchange rate; monetary policy; Foreign Aid; Fiscal Policy; Dutch Disease; Aid donors; recipient country; government program; financial support; Aid flows; Budget planning and preparation; Real exchange rates; Global