Africa > Malawi

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Alassane Drabo
The three main financial inflows to developing countries have largely increased during the last two decades, despite the large debate in the literature regarding their effects on economic growth which is not yet clear-cut. An emerging literature investigates the dependence of their effects on some country characteristics such as human and physical capital constraint, macroeconomic policy and institutional capacity. This paper extends the literature by arguing that climate shocks may undermine the effect of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), official development assistance (ODA) and migrants’ remittances on economic expansion. Based on neoclassical growth framework, the theoretical model indicates that FDI, ODA, and remittances improve economic growth, and the size of the effect increases with good absorptive capacity. However, climate shocks reduce this positive effect of financial flows in developing countries. Using a sample of low and middle-income countries from 1995 to 2018, the empirical investigation confirms the theoretical conclusions. Developing countries should build strong resilience to climate change. Actions are also needed at global level to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, and build strong structural resilience to climate shocks especially in developing countries.
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
,
Hans Weisfeld
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
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Mr. Martin Schindler
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Mr. Nikola Spatafora
, and
Mr. Andrew Berg
This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007-09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) low-income countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined sharply because LICs were unusually synchronized. Second, the growth declines are on average well explained by the decline in export demand. Third, if the external environment facing LICs improves as forecast, their growth should rebound sharply. Finally, and contrary to received wisdom, there are few robust relationships between the cross-country growth variation and the policy and structural environment; the main exceptions are reserve coverage and labor-market flexibility.
International Monetary Fund
This paper discusses a request from Malawi for a one-year exogenous shocks facility (ESF) arrangement to help it adjust to the large terms-of-trade shock it has suffered. Real GDP growth of Malawi has been high and is expected to remain solid. Inflation, though rising in recent months, is still moderate and is expected to ease over the medium term. The government’s near-term program aims to increase the import coverage of official gross reserves while preserving growth and food security. IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a one-year high-access ESF arrangement.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Global financial crisis, Iceland, Poul Thomsen, IMF work program, IMF Shocks Facility, Kyrgyz Republic; Malawi; Exogenous Shocks Facility, Pakistan loan, IMF and social safety nets, gains against poverty in jeopardy, commodity prices slump, Latin America withstands shocks, Improved policies help Latin America, Asian Regional Outlook, Bosnia and Herzegovina, news briefs.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This independent evaluation of the IMF’s role and performance in the determination and use of aid to low-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa is presented at a ground-level view. Country performance has improved in many sub-Saharan Africa countries over the period, and the report details the role of the IMF’s programs, as well as perceptions of that role. The report is an important contribution to following through on the IMF’s commitment to its Poverty Reduction Strategy and makes three main recommendations for improving the coherence—actual and perceived—of the IMF’s policies and actions relating to aid to sub-Saharan Africa going forward.

Abstract

Edited by Zubair Iqbal and Mohsin Khan, this volume is a collection of papers given at a seminar on trade issues in Africa, conducted by the IMF nad the African Economic Research Consortium. It represents the views of government officials, academics, and representatives from multilateral and regional agencies on issues relating to trade reform and regionalism in Africa. Issues include the role of trade liberalization in promoting sustained growth, interdependence of trade and macroeconomic policies, impediments to effective trade reforms, the steps needed to accelerate trade reform, and the importance of regional interaction.