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Africa > Malawi

You are looking at 1 - 4 of 4 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Empirical Studies of Trade x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Global Shocks and their Impacton Low-Income Countries: Lessons From theglobal Financial Crisis
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
,
Hans Weisfeld
,
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
,
Mr. Martin Schindler
,
Mr. Nikola Spatafora
, and
Mr. Andrew Berg
This paper investigates the short-run effects of the 2007-09 global financial crisis on growth in (mainly non-fuel exporting) low-income countries (LICs). Four conclusions stand out. First, for many individual LICs, 2009 was not extraordinarily calamitous; however, aggregate LIC output declined sharply because LICs were unusually synchronized. Second, the growth declines are on average well explained by the decline in export demand. Third, if the external environment facing LICs improves as forecast, their growth should rebound sharply. Finally, and contrary to received wisdom, there are few robust relationships between the cross-country growth variation and the policy and structural environment; the main exceptions are reserve coverage and labor-market flexibility.
Keywords:
WP; growth rate; Per-Capita GDP Growth; Global financial crisis; Low-income countries; External shocks; Short-run growth; external demand; non-fuel-exporting middle-income countries; regression analysis; demand growth; FDI shock; terms of trade growth; Terms of trade; Foreign direct investment; Production growth; Labor market flexibility; Exchange rate arrangements; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2007, Sub-Saharan African
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2007, Sub-Saharan African
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Abstract

The region's prospects look strong. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa should reach 6 percent in 2007 and 6¾ percent in 2008. The economic expansion is strongest in oil exporters but cuts across all country groups. This would extend a period of very good performance. In recent years, sub-Saharan Africa has been experiencing its strongest growth and lowest inflation in over 30 years.

Keywords:
REO; Dem. rep.; oil exporter; current account; development expenditure; nonfuel commodity price; terms of trade shock; expenditure program; Fiscal space; Terms of trade; Oil; Medium-term budget frameworks; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; West Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Malawi
Mr. Johan Mathisen
This paper computes Malawi's equilibrium real exchange rate as a function of its fundamentals as derived from economic theory. It finds evidence in favor of the equilibrium approach to exchange rate determination, with several variables (particularly government consumption and real per capita growth) found to drive movements in the time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate. The results also indicate that following a shock there is a rapid reversion of the real exchange rate to its time-varying equilibrium, with a half-life of reversion of about 11 months.
Keywords:
WP; Malawi; Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate; Malawi equilibrium exchange rate; fiscal policy variable; utility function; expansionary fiscal policy; nominal exchange rate depreciation; Real exchange rates; Real effective exchange rates; Exchange rates; Terms of trade; Government consumption; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sources of Debt Accumulation in a Small Open Economy
Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji
This paper analyzes the borrowing behavior of a small open economy of a developing country that relies heavily on imports for its capital formation and faces an upward-sloping supply function of foreign loans. Decision makers face uncertainty about the longevity of external shocks. That uncertainty generates forecast errors that lead to substantial debt accumulation. It is found that the assumption of an upward-sloping supply function of foreign loans, which is a more realistic formulation for developing countries than the usual perfect elasticity, offers an alternative to the Uzawa-type utility function for analyzing asset accumulation in the small open economy framework.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; Debt Accumulation; Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium Model; External Shocks; Incomplete Information; Developing Countries; world interest rate; terms of trade shock; business cycle; open economy; debt level; Terms of trade; Real interest rates; Exports; Imports