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International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.

Abstract

A supplement to the Forty-Third Issue of Selected Decisions and Selected Documents of the International Monetary Fund, incorporating items posted after January 1, 2023.

Irina Bunda
,
Luc Eyraud
, and
Zhangrui Wang
The coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, which has hit financial systems across Africa, is likely to deteriorate banks’ balance sheets. The largest threat to banks pertains to their loan portfolios, since many borrowers have faced a sharp collapse in their income, and therefore have difficulty repaying their obligations as they come due. This could lead to a sharp increase in nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the short to medium term.
Mr. Calixte Ahokpossi
Financial intermediation is low in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) compared to other regions of the world. This paper examines the determinants of bank interest margins using a sample of 456 banks in 41 SSA countries. The results show that market concentration is positively associated with interest margins, but the impact depends on the level of efficiency of each bank. In particular, compared to inefficient banks, efficient ones increase their margins more in concentrated markets. This indicates that policies that promote competition and reduce market concentration would help lower interest margins in SSA. The results also show that bank-specific factors such as credit risk, liquidity risk, and bank equity are important determinants of interest margins. Finally, interest margins are sensitive to inflation, but not to economic growth or public or foreign ownership. There are regional differences within SSA regarding the level of interest margins even after controlling for other factors.
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
The paper highlights that over the past century, access to education has increased enormously, illiteracy has fallen dramatically, and a higher proportion of people are completing primary, secondary, or tertiary education than ever before. But huge problems remain. About 115 million children of primary school age are not currently enrolled in school. Most are illiterate and live in absolute poverty—the majority female. Some 264 million children of secondary school age are not currently enrolled, and the quality of schooling is often low.
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This first issue of Volume 51 for 2004 includes a new paper by Peter B. Clark and Jacques J. Polak, along with a tribute from the Editor to Mr. Polak in honor of his 90th birthday. This issue also launches a new featured section, "Data Issues," which will be devoted in future issues to on-going discussions of the latest in econometric and statistical tools for economists, data puzzles, and other related topics of interest to researchers.
Mr. Ephraim W. Chirwa
and
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
This study investigates the impact of financial sector reforms on interest rate spreads in the commercial banking system in Malawi. The financial reform program commenced in 1989 when both the Reserve Bank Act and the Banking Act were revised with the easing of entry requirements into the banking system, and indirect monetary policy instruments were subsequently introduced in 1990. The adoption of a floating exchange rate in 1994 marked the end of major policy reforms in the Malawian financial sector. Using alternative definitions of spreads, our analysis shows that spreads increased significantly following liberalization, and panel regression results suggest that the observed high spreads can be attributed to high monopoly power, high reserve requirements, high central bank discount rate and high inflation.
Mr. A. J Hamann
and
Mr. Ales Bulir
This paper examines empirical evidence on the volatility and uncertainty of aid flows, and the main policy implications. Aid is found to be more volatile than fiscal revenues- particularly in highly aid-dependent countries-and mildly procyclical in relation to activity in the recipient country. These findings imply that the current pattern of aid disbursements is welfare-reducing. We also find that uncertainty about aid disbursements is large and that the information content of commitments made by donors is either very small or statistically insignificant. Policies to cope with these features of aid, as well as broader international efforts to reduce the volatility and procyclicality of aid, are briefly discussed.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper highlights that cautious monetary and fiscal polices of South Africa during 1997 resulted in a return of financial investor confidence and capital inflows during 1997 and through April 1998. These policies helped the South African economy emerge successfully from the exchange market pressures of 1996 and weather the contagion from the East Asian crisis in the second half of 1997. Throughout 1997 and up until May 1998, inflation and market interest rates fell considerably, net international reserves increased, and the net open forward position of the Reserve Bank was reduced sharply.
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines economic developments in Malawi during 1993–97. Following a short recovery in 1993, Malawi’s financial situation deteriorated significantly in early 1994 as increasing problems of expenditure control ahead of its first multiparty elections and administrative problems in revenue collection led a large overall fiscal deficit mainly financed by the banking system. However, Malawi embarked, in early 1995, on an adjustment program designed to reestablish financial stability and set the basis for sustainable economic growth. Since then, the authorities’ efforts have led to a significant transformation of the Malawian economy.
Mr. Bart Turtelboom
This paper undertakes a survey of theoretical considerations and an analysis of the experience of five African countries with interest rate liberalization. Despite substantial progress in monetary policy reforms, liberalization has only partially affected the level and variability of interest rates. Several factors—macroeconomic instability, oligopolistic financial markets, the absence of developed capital markets, as well as the sequencing of the liberalization programs and the asymmetric availability of information—explain the increase in the spread between lending and deposit rates as well as the rather inflexible pattern of interest rates during the transition to a market-based financial system.