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Africa > Malawi

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Malawi: Technical Assistance Report-Report on the Improving Estimates of Gross Domestic Product Mission (June 24–July 5, 2024)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The mission assisted the National Statistical Office of Malawi improve the quality of the published annual estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), progressed the use of Value Added Tax (VAT) data as a basis for developing quarterly series and supported development of current price estimates of GDP based on the expenditure approach (GDP-E). Specially, the mission reviewed the quality of the published GDP series and finalized Supply and Use Tables for 2017. This allowed the development of annual current price estimates of GDP-E. In addition, the mission initiated estimation of quarterly current price estimates of GDP for some activities based on data for company sales from Malawi’s VAT system.
Keywords:
GDP; Supply and Use Tables; expenditure GDP; quarterly GDP; administrative data; value added tax; Malawi.; business processing documentation; STA Department; estimates of GDP-E; consumption expenditure; VAT data; Value-added tax; Consumer price indexes; Gross fixed investment
Cover IMF Notes
Agricultural Producer Subsidies: Navigating Challenges and Policy Considerations
David Amaglobeli
,
Todd Benson
, and
Tewodaj Mogues
The objectives underlying agricultural output subsidies can have conflicting implications for the design of subsidy programs. As they tend to affect meaningful swaths of the electorate, subsidies can also be an attractive political instrument. By artificially lowering production costs or assuring higher output prices, direct support measures can result in resource misallocation in instances where they fail to address market failures, such as imperfect information about the returns to fertilizers. Subsidies can also contribute to fertilizer overuse, harming the environment and the agricultural sector in the long term. Furthermore, agricultural production subsidies are often fiscally costly and unfavorable compared to alternative uses of public funds—both within the agricultural sector and outside it—to achieve the same ends. Various design and implementation challenges amplify the shortcomings of producer subsidy programs.
Keywords:
Agricultural subsidies; direct farmer support; payments to agricultural producers; producer subsidy; input subsidy program; IMF note 2024/002; output price subsidy; implementation challenge; Agricultural policy; Government subsidies; Agroindustries; Agricultural sector; Price incentives; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Malawi, a fragile state with one of the highest incidences of poverty, food insecurity and frequent weather-related shocks, has been severely affected by the pandemic. There are signs of gradual recovery and daily COVID-19 positive cases remain relatively low: real GDP growth in 2021 is projected to pick up to 2.2 percent from 0.9 percent in 2020 helped by a good harvest. However, inflation is expected to increase to 9 percent in 2021 from 8.6 percent in 2020, driven by increases in prices of fuel, fertilizer and food, leaving real per capita growth in the negative region.
Keywords:
financing gap; fund advice; private sector investment; governance issue; fiscal policy stance; soft commodity; Debt sustainability; International reserves; Africa; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs
Growth and Adjustment in IMF-Supported Programs
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office

Abstract

This evaluation assesses how well IMF-supported programs helped to sustain economic growth while delivering adjustment needed for external viability over the period 2008–19. The evaluation finds that the Fund’s increasing attention to growth in the programs has delivered some positive results. Specifically, it does not find evidence of a consistent bias towards excessive austerity in IMF-supported programs. Indeed, programs have yielded growth benefits relative to a counterfactual of no Fund engagement and boosted post-program growth performance. Notwithstanding these positive findings, program growth outcomes consistently fell short of program projections. Such shortfalls imply less protection of incomes than intended, fuel adjustment fatigue and public opposition to reforms, and jeopardize progress towards external viability. The evaluation examines how different policy instruments were applied to support better growth outcomes while achieving needed adjustment. Fiscal policies typically incorporated growth-friendly measures but with mixed success. Despite some success in promoting reforms and growth, structural conditionalities were of relatively low depth and their potential growth benefits were not fully realized. Use of the exchange rate as a policy tool to support growth and external adjustment during programs was quite limited. Lastly, market debt operations were useful in some cases to restore debt sustainability and renew market access, yet sometimes were too little and too late to deliver the intended benefits. The evaluation concludes that the IMF should seek to further enhance program countries’ capacity to sustain activity while undertaking needed adjustment during the program and to enhance growth prospects beyond the program. Following this conclusion, the report sets out three recommendations aimed at strengthening attention to growth implications of IMF-supported programs, including the social and distributional consequences.

Keywords:
IMF programs; growth optimism; austerity bias; structural conditionality; debt sustainability; fiscal policy; exchange rate policy; PRGT program; debt operation; IMF support; reviews IMF policy; program objective; Fiscal consolidation; Real effective exchange rates; Structural reforms; Global; Middle East and Central Asia; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Caribbean; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA)
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This Technical Assistance report assesses the state of public investment management (PIM) in Malawi. Measured against the overall strength of its PIM institutions, Malawi performs broadly in line with other low-income developing countries and sub-Saharan African countries, but less well than better-performing emerging markets. Measures of institutional strength show how well Malawi rates in terms of its existing laws and regulations, as well as the formal guidelines and instructions issued by the government to implement these laws. The public investment management assessment diagnostic tool also measures how effectively, in practice, the government implements and enforces these laws and regulations. On this measure of effectiveness, Malawi performs relatively poorly. Looking at individual indicators of PIM, Malawi’s performance is mixed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; annual budget; budget year; capital stock; cash management; Malawian authorities; cash flow; fiscal policy; capital investment; debt management strategy; water board; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Budget planning and preparation; Public investment spending; Sub-Saharan Africa; Southern Africa; East Africa; Europe; Africa; Malawi power market structure; investment project; PIM effectiveness; implementing investment; investment activity; private sector investment; Malawi revenue authority; Malawi education sector improvement program; Caribbean
Cover Policy Papers
Guidance Note on IMF Engagement on Social Safeguards in Low-Income Countries
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, &amp
and
Review Department
This note provides operational guidance to staff on how to engage on social safeguard issues with low-income countries in both program and surveillance contexts. The note is not intended as a comprehensive guide, and should be used in conjunction with other operational guidance notes, such as those relating to conditionality and surveillance.
Keywords:
PP; spending; staff; poverty; spending floor; priority spending; country authorities; expenditure code; address weakness; Social assistance spending; Social protection spending; Education spending; Poverty reduction; Energy subsidies; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper benchmarks Malawi’s public spending and identifies areas where there is scope to improve expenditure efficiency. Malawi performs poorly in health and education spending efficiency. Spending in these areas will need to be stepped up to achieve better living standards and higher, more inclusive growth. A rebalancing of the composition of education and health spending—including greater prioritization of low cost-high impact spending and balancing maintenance against capital spending—would yield immediate results in both health and education. Strengthening the public expenditure management chain, especially procurement and supply management, will be important. These reforms would go hand in hand with greater fiscal transparency and accountability in these sectors.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Malawi; public spending; private sector; spending; growth trend; Medium-Term Growth and Development Strategy; credit growth; business environment; bank lending; vulnerability to external; Education spending; Health care spending; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: Ninth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waivers for Nonobservance of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malawi
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Malawi’s Ninth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waivers for Nonobservance of performance criteria. Real GDP growth is expected to range between 4–5 percent in 2017 owing to a good agricultural harvest and its expected spillovers to other sectors of the economy. Growth prospects, however, will be constrained by persistent power blackouts, water shortages, and access to credit. Real growth is expected to gradually increase over the medium term as macroeconomic conditions stabilize and investment and consumption levels rise. The outlook remains challenging, reflecting uncertainties related to weather conditions, the impact of the fall armyworm infestation on food crops and risks of policy slippages.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; debt; ECF arrangement; development partner; policy implementation; fund support; burden indicator; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover Policy Papers
Social Safeguards and Program Design in PRGT and PSI-Supported Programs
International Monetary Fund
The Fund provides considerable support to low-income countries (LICs). This includes concessional financing from the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT), which currently carries an interest rate of zero percent. Since 2010, over half of Fund-supported arrangements have involved a PRGT facility. Support for poverty reduction is a core objective of arrangements supported by these facilities. This paper examines how PRGT-supported programs safeguard spending on poor and vulnerable groups within the broader framework of promoting inclusive growth. In some cases, national poverty reduction programs seek to shift expenditures toward social programs in the context of generally higher spending supported by domestic revenue mobilization, grants, or debt financing. In other cases, the goal is to safeguard poor and vulnerable groups from fiscal adjustment and reform measures that could adversely affect them by adopting countervailing policy measures to strengthen social safety nets. In discussing social safeguards, this paper focuses on how and if these objectives are reflected satisfactorily in the design of PRGT and PSI-supported programs. The effectiveness of social spending in improving social outcomes, including by durably reducing poverty, is beyond the scope of the paper.
Keywords:
PP; program; Fund; guidance; LIC program; spending; IMF executive board review; program document; country authorities; fund Policy; Social assistance spending; Poverty reduction strategy; Health care spending; Poverty reduction; Fiscal consolidation; Middle East and Central Asia; Central and Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific; Western Hemisphere; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Malawi: Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waivers for Non-Observance of Performance Criteria, Extension of the Arrangement, Modification of Performance Criterion, and Rephasing of Disbursements
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper discusses Malawi’s Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Request for Waivers for Non-observance of Performance Criteria (PCs), Extension of the Arrangement, Modification of PCs, and Rephasing of Disbursements. Program implementation was uneven given external financing shortfalls with several PCs not being observed. Three out of seven PCs for the fifth review were not met, including the continuous PC on the contracting of nonconcessional external loans. The new authorities are firmly committed to the core policies and objectives of the original ECF-supported program. Program discussions focused on key policy actions to address these challenges and bring the program back on track.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; debt; IMF Executive Board; ECF arrangement; complying disbursement; disbursement of SDR; public finance; near-term reform agenda; budget support; Budget planning and preparation; Southern Africa; Global; East Africa